Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-23-2024

May 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:48 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.868

$2.842

0.91%

$0.026

15,665

 

 

WTI

$78.18

$77.57

0.79%

$0.61

74,327

 

 

Brent

$82.51

$81.90

0.74%

$0.61

5,839

 

 

ULSD

$2.453

$2.432

0.89%

$0.022

2,546

 

 

RBOB

$2.497

$2.468

1.19%

$0.029

1,611

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.37

$4.33

0.92%

$0.04

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$26.08

$25.52

2.20%

$0.56

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$47.27

$45.42

4.08%

$1.85

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/17/24

604

1

-116

05/20/23

 

 

Canada

05/17/24

114

-2

29

05/20/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/14/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,604

95,153

95,194

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,441

82,086

82,142

-56

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

366,777

346,142

353,702

-7,560

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,490

139,402

131,881

7,521

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,339

117,124

120,020

-2,896

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,299

35,562

35,959

-397

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,664

156,584

157,120

-536

 

 

RBOB

407,857

382,270

389,792

-7,522

 

 

HSC Basis

823,959

815,257

818,640

-3,383

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/10/19

 

 

 

5/10/24

5/3/24

Net Change

% Change

5/12/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

482

454

28

6.17%

458

5.24%

382

26.11%

 

 

Midwest

606

584

22

3.77%

520

16.54%

454

33.60%

 

 

Mountain

196

191

5

2.62%

112

75.00%

111

76.26%

 

 

Pacific

252

246

6

2.44%

127

98.43%

198

27.53%

 

 

South

1,097

1,087

10

0.92%

1,023

7.23%

901

21.78%

 

 

    Salt

313

314

-1

-0.32%

290

7.93%

281

11.31%

 

 

    Non_Salt

784

773

11

1.42%

734

6.81%

620

26.41%

 

 

Total

2,633

2,563

70

2.73%

2,240

17.54%

2,046

28.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$53.38

$51.50

3.65%

$1.88

$39.95

33.60%

$46.61

14.52%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$77.32

$75.83

1.97%

$1.50

$69.66

11.01%

$43.92

76.05%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$20.87

$21.25

-1.77%

-$0.38

$24.46

-14.65%

$55.49

-62.38%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$54.35

$51.94

4.64%

$2.41

$40.73

33.43%

$50.34

7.97%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$40.72

$40.29

1.07%

$0.43

$35.77

13.84%

$46.90

-13.16%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$33.40

$36.06

-7.38%

-$2.66

$35.70

-6.45%

$59.41

-43.79%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$42.78

$40.91

4.57%

$1.87

$34.45

24.16%

$46.58

-8.16%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.842

$2.671

6.40%

$0.17

$1.98

43.61%

$3.21

-11.49%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.322

-$0.325

-0.77%

$0.00

-$0.18

78.75%

-$0.36

-11.63%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.523

-$0.512

-2.12%

-$0.01

-$0.23

125.54%

-$0.23

129.20%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$2.090

-$2.067

-1.12%

-$0.02

-$1.21

72.79%

-$1.10

89.61%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.547

-$0.600

8.77%

$0.05

-$0.02

3195.18%

-$0.21

161.10%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.834

-$1.783

2.88%

-$0.05

-$1.11

64.81%

-$1.25

46.47%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.757

-$0.672

12.64%

-$0.08

-$0.35

114.85%

-$0.02

4812.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.717

$0.703

2.12%

$0.01

$0.77

-7.28%

$0.66

8.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.712

$0.707

0.70%

$0.00

$0.77

-7.78%

$0.66

7.61%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.223

$0.215

3.96%

$0.01

$0.20

13.82%

$0.23

-3.57%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.515

$1.520

-0.33%

-$0.01

$1.61

-5.75%

$1.39

8.87%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.793

$0.807

-1.80%

-$0.01

$0.87

-8.36%

$0.75

5.64%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.135

$6.110

0.41%

$0.03

$5.94

3.29%

$4.92

24.80%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.690

$5.700

-0.17%

-$0.01

$5.62

1.25%

$4.53

25.62%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$77.57

$78.66

-1.41%

-$1.09

$82.09

-5.51%

$68.93

12.53%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$81.90

$82.88

-1.20%

-$0.98

$87.04

-5.91%

$73.27

11.78%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.10

-$11.10

-0.01%

$0.00

-$11.75

-5.54%

-$12.88

-13.79%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$80.73

$81.40

-0.82%

-$0.66

$84.11

-4.02%

$71.70

12.61%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$78.63

$79.30

-0.84%

-$0.66

$81.96

-4.06%

$67.12

17.16%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$78.70

$79.34

-0.81%

-$0.64

$82.54

-4.64%

$67.07

17.34%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$79.90

$80.88

-1.23%

-$0.98

$85.04

-6.04%

$71.95

11.04%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.42

$2.46

-1.54%

-$0.04

$2.56

-5.35%

$2.32

4.53%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.46

$2.51

-1.95%

-$0.05

$2.71

-8.98%

$2.25

9.46%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.36

$2.41

-2.03%

-$0.05

$2.61

-9.32%

$2.15

9.90%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.39

$2.41

-0.83%

-$0.02

$2.50

-4.55%

$2.13

12.31%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.78

$1.77

0.39%

$0.01

$1.73

3.30%

$1.66

7.48%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$706.23

$719.04

-1.78%

-$12.82

$743.73

-5.04%

$631.11

11.90%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.91

$96.62

0.30%

$0.29

$100.63

-3.70%

$89.43

8.37%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

59.62%

61.39%

-2.88%

-1.77%

51.63%

15.48%

50.24%

18.67%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

65.68%

64.84%

1.30%

0.84%

51.10%

28.53%

49.43%

32.87%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

118.38%

127.07%

-6.84%

-8.69%

169.50%

-30.16%

58.13%

103.65%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

75.08%

72.57%

3.46%

2.51%

63.49%

18.25%

50.91%

47.48%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

84.13%

75.01%

12.16%

9.12%

58.97%

42.67%

52.73%

59.55%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

66.18%

72.42%

-8.62%

-6.24%

65.32%

1.32%

70.97%

-6.75%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

317.58%

326.24%

-2.65%

-8.66%

220.45%

44.06%

114.03%

178.51%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 35.10

EUR 33.19

5.75%

EUR 1.91

EUR 29.35

19.58%

EUR 48.99

-28.35%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 83.56

GBP 79.19

5.51%

GBP 4.37

GBP 71.66

16.60%

GBP 119.03

-29.80%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 82.74

EUR 79.74

3.76%

EUR 3.00

EUR 71.54

15.65%

EUR 111.08

-25.51%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 78.65

GBP 75.08

4.75%

GBP 3.57

GBP 65.37

20.30%

GBP 107.94

-27.14%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 58.06

EUR 53.32

8.89%

EUR 4.74

EUR 52.94

9.67%

EUR 103.02

-43.64%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 113.16

EUR 110.63

2.28%

EUR 2.52

EUR 96.35

17.45%

EUR 127.07

-10.95%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.31

$10.93

3.50%

$0.38

$9.92

14.07%

$14.50

-21.95%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/22/24

5/21/24

% Change

Change

4/24/24

% Change

5/23/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$35.10

$33.19

5.75%

$1.91

$29.35

19.58%

$48.99

-28.35%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$83.56

$79.19

5.51%

$4.37

$71.66

16.60%

$119.03

-29.80%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$82.74

$79.74

3.76%

$3.00

$71.54

15.65%

$111.08

-25.51%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$78.65

$75.08

4.75%

$3.57

$65.37

20.30%

$107.94

-27.14%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$58.06

$53.32

8.89%

$4.74

$52.94

9.67%

$103.02

-43.64%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$113.16

$110.63

2.28%

$2.52

$96.35

17.45%

$127.07

-10.95%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.31

$10.93

3.50%

$0.38

$9.92

14.07%

$14.50

-21.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

0

-1

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-4

-4

9

3

-5

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

6

-5

3

11

-9

2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

14

1

-5

25

-7

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

43

4

-8

286

19

-62

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

32

3

-22

163

47

16

41.00%

11.00%

 

 

W S Central

55

0

-9

375

78

-6

26.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

21

2

-4

54

-37

-12

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-7

-14

1

-36

-16

NA

NA

 

 

United States

19

-1

-7

114

6

-16

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

52

-13

-7

5,700

-798

101

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

42

-8

0

5,143

-701

85

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

28

-27

-13

5,329

-1,083

-428

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

-22

1

5,594

-1,080

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-1

7

2,452

-395

12

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

11

-6

9

3,075

-522

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-2

1

2,059

-236

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

39

-15

2

4,805

-272

-599

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

-19

20

3,009

-96

-492

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

24

-13

3

3,909

-553

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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