Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-24-2024

May 24, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:34 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.611

$2.657

-1.73%

-$0.046

17,426

 

 

WTI

$77.22

$76.87

0.46%

$0.35

112,198

 

 

Brent

$81.57

$81.36

0.26%

$0.21

5,823

 

 

ULSD

$2.408

$2.412

-0.14%

-$0.003

3,868

 

 

RBOB

$2.460

$2.469

-0.38%

-$0.009

3,012

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.34

$4.49

-3.34%

-$0.15

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.43

$25.92

-1.86%

-$0.48

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$42.69

$47.69

-10.48%

-$5.00

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/17/24

604

1

-116

05/20/23

 

 

Canada

05/17/24

114

-2

29

05/20/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/14/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,604

95,153

95,194

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,441

82,086

82,142

-56

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

366,777

346,142

353,702

-7,560

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,490

139,402

131,881

7,521

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,339

117,124

120,020

-2,896

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,299

35,562

35,959

-397

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,664

156,584

157,120

-536

 

 

RBOB

407,857

382,270

389,792

-7,522

 

 

HSC Basis

823,959

815,257

818,640

-3,383

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/17/19

 

 

 

5/17/24

5/10/24

Net Change

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

511

482

29

6.02%

489

4.50%

411

24.27%

 

 

Midwest

628

606

22

3.63%

546

15.02%

481

30.51%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

120

68.33%

119

70.03%

 

 

Pacific

259

252

7

2.78%

139

86.33%

207

25.12%

 

 

South

1,112

1,097

15

1.37%

1,042

6.72%

927

19.91%

 

 

    Salt

319

313

6

1.92%

294

8.50%

288

10.92%

 

 

    Non_Salt

793

784

9

1.15%

748

6.02%

640

23.94%

 

 

Total

2,711

2,633

78

2.96%

2,336

16.05%

2,146

26.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$48.30

$53.38

-9.52%

-$5.08

$41.16

17.34%

$47.04

2.66%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$80.04

$77.32

3.51%

$2.72

$69.74

14.76%

$44.82

78.57%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$21.00

$20.87

0.60%

$0.13

$23.25

-9.68%

$55.50

-62.16%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$48.25

$54.35

-11.23%

-$6.10

$43.76

10.26%

$50.82

-5.07%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$41.58

$40.72

2.11%

$0.86

$36.03

15.41%

$46.82

-11.19%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$35.91

$33.40

7.53%

$2.51

$35.00

2.60%

$62.08

-42.16%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$41.02

$42.78

-4.11%

-$1.76

$35.89

14.30%

$47.29

-13.25%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.657

$2.842

-6.51%

-$0.18

$1.99

33.79%

$3.27

-18.77%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.295

-$0.322

-8.54%

$0.03

-$0.21

39.42%

-$0.35

-16.59%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.529

-$0.523

-1.17%

-$0.01

-$0.25

108.19%

-$0.24

121.34%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$2.138

-$2.090

-2.29%

-$0.05

-$1.33

60.86%

-$1.13

88.63%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.572

-$0.547

-4.48%

-$0.02

-$0.03

1708.54%

-$0.19

200.00%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.801

-$1.834

-1.80%

$0.03

-$1.19

51.38%

-$1.34

34.61%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$0.917

-$0.757

21.27%

-$0.16

-$0.37

149.97%

$0.01

-7050.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.722

$0.717

0.70%

$0.01

$0.78

-7.39%

$0.68

6.47%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.725

$0.712

1.74%

$0.01

$0.78

-7.38%

$0.66

9.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.225

$0.223

0.65%

$0.00

$0.19

16.78%

$0.23

-2.73%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.495

$1.515

-1.32%

-$0.02

$1.60

-6.80%

$1.42

5.29%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.825

$0.793

4.05%

$0.03

$0.86

-4.51%

$0.74

11.31%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.107

$6.135

-0.45%

-$0.03

$5.92

3.09%

$4.96

23.19%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.751

$5.690

1.07%

$0.06

$5.62

2.26%

$4.67

23.01%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$76.87

$77.57

-0.91%

-$0.70

$82.75

-7.11%

$70.14

9.60%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$81.36

$81.90

-0.66%

-$0.54

$87.77

-7.30%

$74.50

9.21%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.10

-$11.10

0.00%

$0.00

-$11.50

-3.48%

-$12.82

-13.43%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.54

$80.73

-1.50%

-$1.19

$83.81

-5.08%

$72.82

9.23%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.44

$78.63

-1.54%

-$1.19

$81.56

-5.04%

$67.96

13.96%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$77.61

$78.70

-1.41%

-$1.10

$82.08

-5.45%

$67.64

14.73%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$79.36

$79.90

-0.68%

-$0.54

$85.77

-7.47%

$72.60

9.31%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.42

-0.49%

-$0.01

$2.57

-5.96%

$2.35

2.90%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.46

$2.46

-0.32%

-$0.01

$2.74

-10.40%

$2.28

7.62%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.36

$2.36

-0.34%

-$0.01

$2.64

-10.79%

$2.18

7.97%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.36

$2.39

-1.26%

-$0.03

$2.48

-4.88%

$2.15

9.87%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.78

$1.78

-0.11%

$0.00

$1.72

3.49%

$1.66

7.49%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$702.99

$706.23

-0.46%

-$3.23

$736.48

-4.55%

$634.49

10.80%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$95.90

$96.91

-1.04%

-$1.01

$99.24

-3.37%

$89.23

7.48%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

83.43%

59.62%

39.94%

23.81%

49.26%

69.37%

42.91%

94.43%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

83.44%

65.68%

27.04%

17.76%

46.09%

81.04%

43.15%

93.37%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

131.86%

118.38%

11.39%

13.48%

160.82%

-18.01%

43.46%

203.41%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

93.30%

75.08%

24.27%

18.22%

56.65%

64.70%

43.62%

113.89%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

80.32%

84.13%

-4.53%

-3.81%

60.66%

32.41%

53.59%

49.88%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

62.72%

66.18%

-5.23%

-3.46%

88.71%

-29.30%

68.25%

-8.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

296.37%

317.58%

-6.68%

-21.21%

253.17%

17.06%

113.65%

160.77%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 35.71

EUR 35.10

1.73%

EUR 0.61

EUR 30.12

18.57%

EUR 48.77

-26.78%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 85.53

GBP 83.56

2.36%

GBP 1.98

GBP 73.40

16.53%

GBP 118.71

-27.95%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 82.00

EUR 82.74

-0.88%

-EUR 0.73

EUR 73.88

10.99%

EUR 112.84

-27.33%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 79.94

GBP 78.65

1.64%

GBP 1.29

GBP 67.47

18.47%

GBP 106.71

-25.09%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 58.38

EUR 58.06

0.54%

EUR 0.32

EUR 55.83

4.57%

EUR 103.39

-43.54%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 113.26

EUR 113.16

0.09%

EUR 0.11

EUR 100.33

12.89%

EUR 128.62

-11.94%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.13

$11.31

-1.60%

-$0.18

$10.58

5.20%

$14.46

-22.98%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/23/24

5/22/24

% Change

Change

4/25/24

% Change

5/24/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$35.71

$35.10

1.73%

$0.61

$30.12

18.57%

$48.77

-26.78%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$85.53

$83.56

2.36%

$1.98

$73.40

16.53%

$118.71

-27.95%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$82.00

$82.74

-0.88%

-$0.73

$73.88

10.99%

$112.84

-27.33%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$79.94

$78.65

1.64%

$1.29

$67.47

18.47%

$106.71

-25.09%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$58.38

$58.06

0.54%

$0.32

$55.83

4.57%

$103.39

-43.54%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$113.26

$113.16

0.09%

$0.11

$100.33

12.89%

$128.62

-11.94%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.13

$11.31

-1.60%

-$0.18

$10.58

5.20%

$14.46

-22.98%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

0

-1

-5

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-4

-4

9

3

-5

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

6

-5

3

11

-9

2

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

14

1

-5

25

-7

-22

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

43

4

-8

286

19

-62

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E S Central

32

3

-22

163

47

16

41.00%

11.00%

 

 

W S Central

55

0

-9

375

78

-6

26.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

21

2

-4

54

-37

-12

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

-7

-14

1

-36

-16

NA

NA

 

 

United States

19

-1

-7

114

6

-16

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/18/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

52

-13

-7

5,700

-798

101

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

42

-8

0

5,143

-701

85

-12.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

28

-27

-13

5,329

-1,083

-428

-17.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

-22

1

5,594

-1,080

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-1

7

2,452

-395

12

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

11

-6

9

3,075

-522

-4

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

2

-2

1

2,059

-236

-41

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

39

-15

2

4,805

-272

-599

-5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

-19

20

3,009

-96

-492

-3.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

24

-13

3

3,909

-553

-231

-12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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