Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-28-2024

May 28, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:12 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.519

$2.520

-0.04%

-$0.001

13,070

 

 

WTI

$79.10

$77.72

1.78%

$1.38

125,983

 

 

Brent

$83.46

$82.12

1.63%

$1.34

9,332

 

 

ULSD

$2.465

$2.414

2.13%

$0.051

3,020

 

 

RBOB

$2.509

$2.484

1.00%

$0.025

1,398

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.36

$4.40

-0.91%

-$0.04

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$25.47

$25.46

0.05%

$0.01

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$42.63

$42.91

-0.65%

-$0.28

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/24/24

600

-4

-111

05/27/23

 

 

Canada

05/24/24

120

6

33

05/27/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/21/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

99,098

98,651

98,689

-38

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,539

84,055

84,147

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

367,711

349,753

354,835

-5,082

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

161,286

143,834

136,438

7,396

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,163

123,348

125,343

-1,995

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,534

35,855

36,144

-289

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

158,490

157,455

157,980

-525

 

 

RBOB

400,888

374,831

385,303

-10,472

 

 

HSC Basis

845,442

836,765

840,179

-3,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/17/19

 

 

 

5/17/24

5/10/24

Net Change

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

511

482

29

6.02%

489

4.50%

411

24.27%

 

 

Midwest

628

606

22

3.63%

546

15.02%

481

30.51%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

120

68.33%

119

70.03%

 

 

Pacific

259

252

7

2.78%

139

86.33%

207

25.12%

 

 

South

1,112

1,097

15

1.37%

1,042

6.72%

927

19.91%

 

 

    Salt

319

313

6

1.92%

294

8.50%

288

10.92%

 

 

    Non_Salt

793

784

9

1.15%

748

6.02%

640

23.94%

 

 

Total

2,711

2,633

78

2.96%

2,336

16.05%

2,146

26.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$48.00

$48.30

-0.61%

-$0.29

$40.04

19.90%

$46.43

3.38%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$79.02

$80.04

-1.27%

-$1.02

$70.24

12.50%

$43.88

80.09%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$21.67

$21.00

3.20%

$0.67

$23.45

-7.60%

$54.71

-60.39%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$48.19

$48.25

-0.11%

-$0.05

$41.74

15.44%

$50.15

-3.91%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$40.49

$41.58

-2.63%

-$1.09

$35.04

15.55%

$49.68

-18.50%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$37.50

$35.91

4.43%

$1.59

$35.20

6.53%

$61.90

-39.42%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$40.68

$41.02

-0.82%

-$0.34

$35.03

16.14%

$50.23

-19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.520

$2.657

-5.16%

-$0.14

$1.92

31.05%

$3.24

-22.15%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.283

-$0.295

-4.01%

$0.01

-$0.22

26.08%

-$0.34

-16.13%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.524

-$0.529

1.03%

$0.01

-$0.26

99.69%

-$0.24

122.34%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$2.109

-$2.138

-1.37%

$0.03

-$1.39

52.21%

-$1.11

90.47%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.590

-$0.572

-3.25%

-$0.02

-$0.07

794.09%

-$0.18

227.65%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.655

-$1.801

-8.12%

$0.15

-$1.17

41.90%

-$1.32

25.73%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$1.046

-$0.917

14.04%

-$0.13

-$0.39

169.78%

$0.00

34773.33%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.741

$0.722

2.57%

$0.02

$0.79

-6.51%

$0.66

12.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.725

$0.725

0.02%

$0.00

$0.80

-9.35%

$0.65

11.30%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.204

$0.225

-9.21%

-$0.02

$0.18

11.79%

$0.23

-10.26%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.527

$1.495

2.17%

$0.03

$1.63

-6.15%

$1.37

11.37%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.839

$0.825

1.77%

$0.01

$0.88

-5.05%

$0.72

16.00%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.221

$6.107

1.85%

$0.11

$6.04

2.98%

$4.85

28.20%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.762

$5.751

0.19%

$0.01

$5.53

4.27%

$4.54

26.90%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$77.72

$76.87

1.09%

$0.85

$83.13

-6.51%

$68.27

13.84%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$82.12

$81.36

0.93%

$0.76

$88.21

-6.90%

$72.65

13.04%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.00

-$11.10

-0.91%

$0.10

-$11.50

-4.35%

-$13.66

-19.45%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$78.81

$79.54

-0.93%

-$0.73

$84.41

-6.63%

$69.81

12.89%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$76.81

$77.44

-0.82%

-$0.63

$82.16

-6.51%

$65.32

17.60%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$76.91

$77.61

-0.91%

-$0.70

$82.73

-7.03%

$65.94

16.63%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$80.12

$79.36

0.95%

$0.76

$86.21

-7.06%

$71.06

12.74%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.42

$2.41

0.17%

$0.00

$2.56

-5.51%

$2.30

5.13%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.48

$2.46

1.18%

$0.03

$2.74

-9.37%

$2.25

10.35%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.38

$2.36

1.23%

$0.03

$2.64

-9.73%

$2.15

10.83%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.35

$2.36

-0.42%

-$0.01

$2.52

-6.89%

$2.08

12.76%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.79

$1.78

0.39%

$0.01

$1.72

3.90%

$1.66

7.78%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$702.24

$702.99

-0.11%

-$0.75

$751.22

-6.52%

$628.72

11.69%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$93.98

$95.90

-2.00%

-$1.92

$100.16

-6.17%

$90.59

3.74%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

68.19%

83.43%

-18.27%

-15.24%

48.95%

39.31%

45.27%

50.63%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

65.80%

83.44%

-21.14%

-17.64%

45.09%

45.93%

45.09%

45.93%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

132.67%

131.86%

0.61%

0.81%

155.67%

-14.77%

47.00%

182.28%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

78.93%

93.30%

-15.40%

-14.37%

60.52%

30.42%

43.92%

79.71%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

82.83%

80.32%

3.12%

2.51%

69.43%

19.30%

53.35%

55.26%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

72.96%

62.72%

16.33%

10.24%

70.88%

2.93%

69.12%

5.56%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

301.00%

296.37%

1.56%

4.63%

185.29%

62.45%

115.04%

161.65%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 34.23

EUR 35.71

-4.14%

-EUR 1.48

EUR 29.56

15.81%

EUR 45.98

-25.55%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 82.17

GBP 85.53

-3.94%

-GBP 3.37

GBP 72.06

14.02%

GBP 110.02

-25.32%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 81.70

EUR 82.00

-0.37%

-EUR 0.30

EUR 70.79

15.41%

EUR 108.52

-24.71%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 76.62

GBP 79.94

-4.16%

-GBP 3.32

GBP 63.47

20.71%

GBP 104.13

-26.42%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 58.29

EUR 58.38

-0.15%

-EUR 0.09

EUR 50.70

14.97%

EUR 102.58

-43.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 110.55

EUR 113.26

-2.40%

-EUR 2.71

EUR 97.72

13.13%

EUR 124.75

-11.38%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$10.63

$11.13

-4.53%

-$0.50

$10.21

4.12%

$15.07

-29.47%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/24/24

5/23/24

% Change

Change

4/26/24

% Change

5/25/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$34.23

$35.71

-4.14%

-$1.48

$29.56

15.81%

$45.98

-25.55%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$82.17

$85.53

-3.94%

-$3.37

$72.06

14.02%

$110.02

-25.32%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$81.70

$82.00

-0.37%

-$0.30

$70.79

15.41%

$108.52

-24.71%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$76.62

$79.94

-4.16%

-$3.32

$63.47

20.71%

$104.13

-26.42%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$58.29

$58.38

-0.15%

-$0.09

$50.70

14.97%

$102.58

-43.18%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$110.55

$113.26

-2.40%

-$2.71

$97.72

13.13%

$124.75

-11.38%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$10.63

$11.13

-4.53%

-$0.50

$10.21

4.12%

$15.07

-29.47%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

7

9

9

6

4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

17

9

17

26

12

13

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

29

14

26

40

5

28

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

23

4

10

48

-4

-13

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

63

16

22

350

35

-39

11.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

64

26

27

227

74

45

48.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

101

35

45

475

112

39

31.00%

9.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

-9

-9

71

-46

-21

-39.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-9

-6

1

-44

-20

NA

NA

 

 

United States

37

10

17

151

16

1

12.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-30

-40

5,720

-827

63

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

-31

-34

5,149

-732

51

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-34

-30

5,338

-1,116

-460

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

25

-12

-6

5,619

-1,092

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-8

-9

2,453

-403

2

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-12

-8

3,075

-534

-13

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-3

2,059

-238

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

54

11

28

4,858

-262

-569

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

16

30

3,060

-81

-468

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-12

-8

3,926

-564

-240

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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