Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-29-2024

May 29, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.542

$2.590

-1.85%

-$0.048

689

 

 

WTI

$80.37

$79.83

0.68%

$0.54

55,958

 

 

Brent

$84.76

$84.22

0.64%

$0.54

2,511

 

 

ULSD

$2.473

$2.465

0.31%

$0.008

2,057

 

 

RBOB

$2.514

$2.509

0.22%

$0.005

1,909

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.40

$4.39

0.23%

$0.01

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.78

$24.99

-0.81%

-$0.20

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$42.51

$42.46

0.11%

$0.05

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/24/24

600

-4

-111

05/27/23

 

 

Canada

05/24/24

120

6

33

05/27/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/21/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

99,098

98,651

98,689

-38

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,539

84,055

84,147

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

367,711

349,753

354,835

-5,082

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

161,286

143,834

136,438

7,396

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,163

123,348

125,343

-1,995

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,534

35,855

36,144

-289

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

158,490

157,455

157,980

-525

 

 

RBOB

400,888

374,831

385,303

-10,472

 

 

HSC Basis

845,442

836,765

840,179

-3,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/17/19

 

 

 

5/17/24

5/10/24

Net Change

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

511

482

29

6.02%

489

4.50%

411

24.27%

 

 

Midwest

628

606

22

3.63%

546

15.02%

481

30.51%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

120

68.33%

119

70.03%

 

 

Pacific

259

252

7

2.78%

139

86.33%

207

25.12%

 

 

South

1,112

1,097

15

1.37%

1,042

6.72%

927

19.91%

 

 

    Salt

319

313

6

1.92%

294

8.50%

288

10.92%

 

 

    Non_Salt

793

784

9

1.15%

748

6.02%

640

23.94%

 

 

Total

2,711

2,633

78

2.96%

2,336

16.05%

2,146

26.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$47.95

$48.00

-0.12%

-$0.06

$41.47

15.61%

$46.47

3.19%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$74.83

$79.02

-5.31%

-$4.20

$74.00

1.12%

$44.72

67.32%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$23.25

$21.67

7.28%

$1.58

$25.62

-9.25%

$55.71

-58.27%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$48.16

$48.19

-0.07%

-$0.04

$43.64

10.34%

$50.20

-4.07%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$39.03

$40.49

-3.61%

-$1.46

$36.14

7.97%

$49.42

-21.03%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$38.09

$37.50

1.58%

$0.59

$39.55

-3.68%

$68.56

-44.44%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$39.43

$40.68

-3.09%

-$1.26

$36.17

8.99%

$49.80

-20.84%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jun-24

$2.590

$2.520

2.78%

$0.07

$2.03

27.59%

$3.25

-20.23%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jun-24

-$0.297

-$0.283

4.92%

-$0.01

-$0.24

25.24%

-$0.34

-12.37%

 

 

Chicago

Jun-24

-$0.556

-$0.524

-5.81%

-$0.03

-$0.28

95.12%

-$0.24

130.38%

 

 

Waha

Jun-24

-$2.194

-$2.109

-4.06%

-$0.09

-$1.56

40.50%

-$1.11

97.17%

 

 

Algonquin

Jun-24

-$0.649

-$0.590

-9.93%

-$0.06

-$0.08

682.51%

-$0.18

260.39%

 

 

Aeco

Jun-24

-$1.640

-$1.655

-0.89%

$0.01

-$1.16

41.34%

-$1.33

23.65%

 

 

Socal

Jun-24

-$1.251

-$1.046

19.60%

-$0.21

-$0.39

223.17%

$0.00

-41810.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.745

$0.741

0.52%

$0.00

$0.78

-4.49%

$0.65

14.07%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.747

$0.725

3.07%

$0.02

$0.80

-6.01%

$0.66

13.62%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.200

$0.204

-2.03%

$0.00

$0.19

5.28%

$0.22

-10.43%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.556

$1.527

1.86%

$0.03

$1.61

-3.39%

$1.39

11.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.851

$0.839

1.32%

$0.01

$0.88

-3.21%

$0.72

18.11%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.305

$6.221

1.35%

$0.08

$6.00

5.16%

$4.81

31.18%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.831

$5.762

1.21%

$0.07

$5.60

4.13%

$4.54

28.50%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$79.83

$77.72

2.64%

$2.11

$82.03

-2.68%

$69.05

15.61%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$84.22

$82.12

2.49%

$2.10

$87.20

-3.42%

$73.54

14.52%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.05

-$11.00

0.45%

-$0.05

-$11.40

-3.07%

-$14.22

-22.31%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$79.61

$78.81

1.01%

$0.80

$84.79

-6.11%

$71.50

11.34%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$77.51

$76.81

0.90%

$0.70

$82.49

-6.03%

$66.60

16.38%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$77.75

$76.91

1.08%

$0.84

$83.11

-6.46%

$66.98

16.08%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$82.22

$80.12

2.55%

$2.10

$85.20

-3.50%

$72.01

14.17%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.47

$2.42

2.19%

$0.05

$2.55

-3.21%

$2.32

6.51%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.51

$2.48

1.01%

$0.03

$2.72

-7.89%

$2.27

10.82%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.38

1.05%

$0.03

$2.63

-8.19%

$2.16

11.32%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.35

2.60%

$0.06

$2.50

-3.52%

$2.10

14.81%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.82

$1.79

1.57%

$0.03

$1.72

5.52%

$1.67

8.81%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$718.80

$702.24

2.36%

$16.55

$746.98

-3.77%

$618.81

16.16%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.81

$93.98

3.01%

$2.83

$99.89

-3.08%

$88.14

9.83%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

55.80%

68.19%

-18.17%

-12.39%

44.11%

26.50%

38.21%

46.04%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

53.85%

65.80%

-18.16%

-11.95%

43.79%

22.97%

37.58%

43.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

110.16%

132.67%

-16.97%

-22.51%

149.05%

-26.09%

39.01%

182.39%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

65.23%

78.93%

-17.36%

-13.70%

51.49%

26.68%

36.99%

76.34%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

85.54%

82.83%

3.27%

2.71%

71.73%

19.25%

49.49%

72.84%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

77.58%

72.96%

6.33%

4.62%

68.11%

13.90%

70.68%

9.76%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

290.95%

301.00%

-3.34%

-10.05%

216.17%

34.59%

117.86%

146.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 33.84

EUR 34.23

-1.15%

-EUR 0.39

EUR 28.53

18.61%

EUR 43.48

-22.18%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 80.90

GBP 82.17

-1.55%

-GBP 1.27

GBP 68.23

18.57%

GBP 103.44

-21.79%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 80.68

EUR 81.70

-1.25%

-EUR 1.02

EUR 67.61

19.34%

EUR 104.06

-22.46%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 76.31

GBP 76.62

-0.40%

-GBP 0.31

GBP 62.88

21.36%

GBP 96.54

-20.95%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 56.79

EUR 58.29

-2.58%

-EUR 1.50

EUR 49.81

14.00%

EUR 98.24

-42.20%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 111.01

EUR 110.55

0.42%

EUR 0.47

EUR 94.41

17.59%

EUR 117.85

-5.80%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$10.93

$10.63

2.85%

$0.30

$9.97

9.64%

$12.68

-13.76%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/28/24

5/24/24

% Change

Change

4/29/24

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$33.84

$34.23

-1.15%

-$0.39

$28.53

18.61%

$43.48

-22.18%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$80.90

$82.17

-1.55%

-$1.27

$68.23

18.57%

$103.44

-21.79%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$80.68

$81.70

-1.25%

-$1.02

$67.61

19.34%

$104.06

-22.46%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$76.31

$76.62

-0.40%

-$0.31

$62.88

21.36%

$96.54

-20.95%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$56.79

$58.29

-2.58%

-$1.50

$49.81

14.00%

$98.24

-42.20%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$111.01

$110.55

0.42%

$0.47

$94.41

17.59%

$117.85

-5.80%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$10.93

$10.63

2.85%

$0.30

$9.97

9.64%

$12.68

-13.76%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

7

9

9

6

4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

17

9

17

26

12

13

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

29

14

26

40

5

28

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

23

4

10

48

-4

-13

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

63

16

22

350

35

-39

11.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

64

26

27

227

74

45

48.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

101

35

45

475

112

39

31.00%

9.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

-9

-9

71

-46

-21

-39.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-9

-6

1

-44

-20

NA

NA

 

 

United States

37

10

17

151

16

1

12.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-30

-40

5,720

-827

63

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

-31

-34

5,149

-732

51

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-34

-30

5,338

-1,116

-460

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

25

-12

-6

5,619

-1,092

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-8

-9

2,453

-403

2

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-12

-8

3,075

-534

-13

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-3

2,059

-238

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

54

11

28

4,858

-262

-569

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

16

30

3,060

-81

-468

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-12

-8

3,926

-564

-240

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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