Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-30-2024

May 30, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:39 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.602

$2.493

4.37%

$0.109

43,904

 

 

WTI

$78.61

$79.23

-0.78%

-$0.62

103,103

 

 

Brent

$82.86

$83.60

-0.89%

-$0.74

1,365

 

 

ULSD

$2.409

$2.437

-1.15%

-$0.028

1,936

 

 

RBOB

$2.447

$2.464

-0.72%

-$0.018

1,881

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.29

$4.37

-1.83%

-$0.08

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.92

$24.03

-0.44%

-$0.11

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/24/24

600

-4

-111

05/27/23

 

 

Canada

05/24/24

120

6

33

05/27/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/21/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

99,098

98,651

98,689

-38

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,539

84,055

84,147

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

367,711

349,753

354,835

-5,082

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

161,286

143,834

136,438

7,396

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,163

123,348

125,343

-1,995

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,534

35,855

36,144

-289

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

158,490

157,455

157,980

-525

 

 

RBOB

400,888

374,831

385,303

-10,472

 

 

HSC Basis

845,442

836,765

840,179

-3,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/17/19

 

 

 

5/17/24

5/10/24

Net Change

% Change

5/19/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

511

482

29

6.02%

489

4.50%

411

24.27%

 

 

Midwest

628

606

22

3.63%

546

15.02%

481

30.51%

 

 

Mountain

202

196

6

3.06%

120

68.33%

119

70.03%

 

 

Pacific

259

252

7

2.78%

139

86.33%

207

25.12%

 

 

South

1,112

1,097

15

1.37%

1,042

6.72%

927

19.91%

 

 

    Salt

319

313

6

1.92%

294

8.50%

288

10.92%

 

 

    Non_Salt

793

784

9

1.15%

748

6.02%

640

23.94%

 

 

Total

2,711

2,633

78

2.96%

2,336

16.05%

2,146

26.35%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$46.20

$47.95

-3.65%

-$1.75

$39.61

16.62%

$45.03

2.60%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$66.48

$74.83

-11.16%

-$8.35

$75.99

-12.52%

$45.83

45.06%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$22.57

$23.25

-2.91%

-$0.68

$23.51

-3.98%

$57.05

-60.43%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$45.95

$48.16

-4.58%

-$2.20

$42.00

9.42%

$48.66

-5.56%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$38.15

$39.03

-2.24%

-$0.87

$35.42

7.70%

$49.69

-23.22%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$39.04

$38.09

2.48%

$0.95

$35.72

9.29%

$64.82

-39.78%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$40.82

$39.43

3.53%

$1.39

$35.00

16.63%

$50.16

-18.62%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.666

$2.825

-5.63%

-$0.16

$2.32

14.96%

$3.33

-19.92%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.266

-$0.292

-9.03%

$0.03

-$0.21

26.26%

-$0.28

-5.04%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.489

-$0.519

6.09%

$0.03

-$0.31

60.18%

-$0.20

148.48%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.553

-$1.572

-1.18%

$0.02

-$1.11

39.69%

-$0.71

119.80%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.127

$0.137

-7.16%

-$0.01

$0.25

-49.64%

$0.17

-25.43%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$1.833

-$1.909

-3.99%

$0.08

-$1.42

29.49%

-$1.41

30.47%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.118

-$0.175

-32.36%

$0.06

$0.20

-160.39%

$1.56

-107.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.738

$0.745

-0.96%

-$0.01

$0.76

-3.54%

$0.63

16.91%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.740

$0.747

-0.95%

-$0.01

$0.77

-3.40%

$0.63

17.85%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.198

$0.200

-1.24%

$0.00

$0.19

5.34%

$0.22

-11.97%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.533

$1.556

-1.49%

-$0.02

$1.59

-3.62%

$1.34

14.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.845

$0.851

-0.60%

-$0.01

$0.86

-1.27%

$0.69

22.58%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.270

$6.305

-0.55%

-$0.03

$6.00

4.50%

$4.70

33.44%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.809

$5.831

-0.37%

-$0.02

$5.55

4.66%

$4.45

30.70%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$79.23

$79.83

-0.76%

-$0.60

$81.28

-2.52%

$66.68

18.82%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$83.60

$84.22

-0.74%

-$0.62

$86.33

-3.16%

$70.95

17.83%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.30

-$11.05

2.22%

-$0.25

-$11.25

0.45%

-$13.24

-14.63%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$81.74

$79.61

2.59%

$2.12

$83.99

-2.69%

$69.13

18.23%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$79.79

$77.51

2.85%

$2.27

$81.69

-2.33%

$65.29

22.21%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$79.86

$77.75

2.64%

$2.11

$82.03

-2.65%

$64.74

23.36%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$81.60

$82.22

-0.76%

-$0.62

$84.33

-3.24%

$69.73

17.03%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.43

$2.47

-1.58%

-$0.04

$2.52

-3.61%

$2.24

8.29%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.51

$2.51

0.12%

$0.00

$2.68

-6.30%

$2.19

14.59%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.41

0.12%

$0.00

$2.58

-6.55%

$2.09

15.29%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.39

$2.41

-0.87%

-$0.02

$2.48

-3.55%

$2.05

16.42%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.83

$1.82

0.83%

$0.01

$1.72

6.27%

$1.67

9.45%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$711.05

$718.80

-1.08%

-$7.75

$731.88

-2.85%

$606.44

17.25%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$98.29

$96.81

1.54%

$1.49

$100.40

-2.10%

$85.99

14.30%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

63.67%

55.80%

14.10%

7.87%

48.17%

32.18%

45.04%

41.36%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

62.99%

53.85%

16.97%

9.14%

47.18%

33.51%

44.54%

41.42%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

115.01%

110.16%

4.40%

4.85%

153.48%

-25.07%

45.08%

155.12%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

72.58%

65.23%

11.27%

7.35%

54.28%

33.71%

44.48%

63.17%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

85.30%

85.54%

-0.28%

-0.24%

62.64%

36.17%

49.17%

73.48%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

67.92%

77.58%

-12.45%

-9.66%

72.28%

-6.03%

71.51%

-5.02%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

292.76%

290.95%

0.62%

1.81%

271.61%

7.79%

119.29%

145.42%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 34.13

EUR 33.84

0.88%

EUR 0.30

EUR 29.55

15.52%

EUR 42.58

-19.83%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 81.86

GBP 80.90

1.20%

GBP 0.97

GBP 71.96

13.76%

GBP 101.14

-19.06%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 80.68

EUR 80.68

-0.01%

-EUR 0.01

EUR 71.52

12.81%

EUR 102.45

-21.25%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 76.71

GBP 76.31

0.52%

GBP 0.40

GBP 65.94

16.33%

GBP 94.78

-19.06%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 48.42

EUR 56.79

-14.73%

-EUR 8.36

EUR 56.35

-14.06%

EUR 99.24

-51.21%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 109.65

EUR 111.01

-1.23%

-EUR 1.37

EUR 97.24

12.76%

EUR 112.74

-2.74%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.15

$10.93

1.98%

$0.22

$10.40

7.16%

$12.55

-11.18%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/29/24

5/28/24

% Change

Change

4/30/24

% Change

5/30/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$34.13

$33.84

0.88%

$0.30

$29.55

15.52%

$42.58

-19.83%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$81.86

$80.90

1.20%

$0.97

$71.96

13.76%

$101.14

-19.06%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$80.68

$80.68

-0.01%

-$0.01

$71.52

12.81%

$102.45

-21.25%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$76.71

$76.31

0.52%

$0.40

$65.94

16.33%

$94.78

-19.06%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$48.42

$56.79

-14.73%

-$8.36

$56.35

-14.06%

$99.24

-51.21%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$109.65

$111.01

-1.23%

-$1.37

$97.24

12.76%

$112.74

-2.74%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.15

$10.93

1.98%

$0.22

$10.40

7.16%

$12.55

-11.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

7

9

9

6

4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

17

9

17

26

12

13

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

29

14

26

40

5

28

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

23

4

10

48

-4

-13

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

63

16

22

350

35

-39

11.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

64

26

27

227

74

45

48.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

101

35

45

475

112

39

31.00%

9.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

-9

-9

71

-46

-21

-39.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-9

-6

1

-44

-20

NA

NA

 

 

United States

37

10

17

151

16

1

12.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-30

-40

5,720

-827

63

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

-31

-34

5,149

-732

51

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-34

-30

5,338

-1,116

-460

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

25

-12

-6

5,619

-1,092

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-8

-9

2,453

-403

2

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-12

-8

3,075

-534

-13

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-3

2,059

-238

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

54

11

28

4,858

-262

-569

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

16

30

3,060

-81

-468

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-12

-8

3,926

-564

-240

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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