Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — May-31-2024

May 31, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:35 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.570

$2.572

-0.08%

-$0.002

36,047

 

 

WTI

$78.22

$77.91

0.40%

$0.31

105,097

 

 

Brent

$81.90

$81.86

0.05%

$0.04

192

 

 

ULSD

$2.383

$2.369

0.59%

$0.014

377

 

 

RBOB

$2.423

$2.405

0.74%

$0.018

378

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.64

$3.95

-7.85%

-$0.31

Jul-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.26

$22.87

1.69%

$0.39

Jul-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Jun-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

05/24/24

600

-4

-111

05/27/23

 

 

Canada

05/24/24

120

6

33

05/27/23

 

 

International

Apr

978

7

31

Apr

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 5/21/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

99,098

98,651

98,689

-38

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,539

84,055

84,147

-92

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

367,711

349,753

354,835

-5,082

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

161,286

143,834

136,438

7,396

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,163

123,348

125,343

-1,995

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,534

35,855

36,144

-289

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

158,490

157,455

157,980

-525

 

 

RBOB

400,888

374,831

385,303

-10,472

 

 

HSC Basis

845,442

836,765

840,179

-3,414

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$88.00

$85.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.50

$3.50

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.90

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

14.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

05/24/19

 

 

 

5/24/24

5/17/24

Net Change

% Change

5/26/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

538

511

27

5.28%

522

3.07%

442

21.66%

 

 

Midwest

652

628

24

3.82%

577

13.00%

510

27.74%

 

 

Mountain

210

202

8

3.96%

127

65.35%

125

68.27%

 

 

Pacific

267

259

8

3.09%

151

76.82%

217

23.04%

 

 

South

1,128

1,112

16

1.44%

1,070

5.42%

954

18.24%

 

 

    Salt

324

319

5

1.57%

304

6.58%

292

11.11%

 

 

    Non_Salt

804

793

11

1.39%

766

4.96%

662

21.38%

 

 

Total

2,795

2,711

84

3.10%

2,446

14.27%

2,248

24.31%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Jun-24

$44.76

$46.20

-3.10%

-$1.43

$39.65

12.90%

$44.35

0.93%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Jun-24

$70.13

$66.48

5.49%

$3.65

$77.54

-9.56%

$44.12

58.95%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Jun-24

$24.00

$22.57

6.32%

$1.43

$24.50

-2.04%

$52.51

-54.30%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Jun-24

$44.63

$45.95

-2.89%

-$1.33

$42.06

6.10%

$48.20

-7.42%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Jun-24

$37.05

$38.15

-2.90%

-$1.11

$35.01

5.83%

$47.23

-21.56%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Jun-24

$40.00

$39.04

2.46%

$0.96

$34.50

15.94%

$61.97

-35.45%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Jun-24

$36.92

$40.82

-9.54%

-$3.89

$35.20

4.90%

$50.75

-27.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jul-24

$2.572

$2.666

-3.53%

-$0.09

$2.27

13.50%

$3.25

-20.86%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jul-24

-$0.279

-$0.266

4.85%

-$0.01

-$0.21

33.27%

-$0.28

-2.18%

 

 

Chicago

Jul-24

-$0.497

-$0.489

-1.45%

-$0.01

-$0.31

61.16%

-$0.20

147.61%

 

 

Waha

Jul-24

-$1.581

-$1.553

-1.78%

-$0.03

-$1.13

39.76%

-$0.72

118.37%

 

 

Algonquin

Jul-24

$0.124

$0.127

-2.60%

$0.00

$0.25

-51.24%

$0.17

-27.24%

 

 

Aeco

Jul-24

-$1.749

-$1.833

-4.60%

$0.08

-$1.38

27.16%

-$1.41

24.46%

 

 

Socal

Jul-24

-$0.054

-$0.118

-53.93%

$0.06

$0.18

-130.90%

$1.57

-103.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Jun-24

$0.719

$0.738

-2.51%

-$0.02

$0.73

-1.81%

$0.62

15.86%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Jun-24

$0.721

$0.740

-2.65%

-$0.02

$0.73

-1.65%

$0.62

15.92%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Jun-24

$0.191

$0.198

-3.16%

-$0.01

$0.18

5.45%

$0.23

-17.32%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Jun-24

$1.520

$1.533

-0.82%

-$0.01

$1.54

-1.12%

$1.31

16.39%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Jun-24

$0.826

$0.845

-2.28%

-$0.02

$0.83

-0.86%

$0.68

21.45%

 

 

Far East Propane

Jun-24

$6.235

$6.270

-0.55%

-$0.03

$5.80

7.42%

$4.63

34.81%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Jun-24

$5.835

$5.809

0.43%

$0.03

$5.45

7.00%

$4.32

34.92%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jul-24

$77.91

$79.23

-1.69%

-$1.32

$78.44

-0.68%

$65.52

18.91%

 

 

Brent

Jul-24

$81.86

$83.60

-2.13%

-$1.74

$83.44

-1.89%

$70.00

16.94%

 

 

WCS

Jul-24

-$11.55

-$11.30

2.16%

-$0.25

-$11.10

4.05%

-$13.20

-12.49%

 

 

LLS

Jul-24

$81.10

$81.74

-0.78%

-$0.63

$83.09

-2.39%

$67.48

20.18%

 

 

Mars

Jul-24

$79.15

$79.79

-0.80%

-$0.63

$80.94

-2.20%

$62.84

25.97%

 

 

Sour

Jul-24

$79.30

$79.86

-0.71%

-$0.56

$81.28

-2.44%

$63.46

24.96%

 

 

ESPO

Jul-24

$79.86

$81.60

-2.18%

-$1.74

$81.44

-1.94%

$68.95

15.82%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Jun-24

$2.42

$2.43

-0.37%

-$0.01

$2.46

-1.50%

$2.21

9.64%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.41

$2.51

-4.02%

-$0.10

$2.58

-6.51%

$2.13

12.97%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Jun-24

$2.31

$2.41

-4.19%

-$0.10

$2.48

-6.77%

$2.04

13.61%

 

 

GC Jet

Jun-24

$2.32

$2.39

-2.93%

-$0.07

$2.44

-5.11%

$2.06

12.62%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Jun-24

$1.81

$1.83

-0.93%

-$0.02

$1.72

5.71%

$1.68

7.85%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Jun-24

$702.60

$711.05

-1.19%

-$8.45

$722.02

-2.69%

$601.93

16.72%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Jun-24

$96.60

$98.29

-1.72%

-$1.69

$99.72

-3.13%

$86.63

11.52%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jul-24

61.05%

63.67%

-4.11%

-2.62%

48.95%

24.72%

44.50%

37.19%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jul-24

59.94%

62.99%

-4.84%

-3.05%

46.50%

28.90%

42.20%

42.04%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jul-24

128.34%

115.01%

11.59%

13.33%

164.68%

-22.07%

47.28%

171.45%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jul-24

71.08%

72.58%

-2.07%

-1.50%

55.02%

29.19%

45.56%

56.01%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jul-24

86.14%

85.30%

0.98%

0.84%

65.32%

31.87%

45.05%

91.21%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jul-24

70.05%

67.92%

3.14%

2.13%

71.39%

-1.88%

71.64%

-2.22%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jul-24

328.97%

292.76%

12.37%

36.21%

274.66%

19.77%

119.49%

175.31%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jul-24

EUR 35.04

EUR 34.13

2.65%

EUR 0.90

EUR 29.00

20.84%

EUR 43.41

-19.28%

 

 

NBP

Jul-24

GBP 83.94

GBP 81.86

2.54%

GBP 2.08

GBP 69.91

20.07%

GBP 103.89

-19.20%

 

 

German Base

Jul-24

EUR 82.15

EUR 80.68

1.83%

EUR 1.47

EUR 68.94

19.16%

EUR 102.70

-20.01%

 

 

UK Base

Jul-24

GBP 77.21

GBP 76.71

0.65%

GBP 0.50

GBP 63.19

22.19%

GBP 98.69

-21.77%

 

 

French Base

Jul-24

EUR 46.17

EUR 48.42

-4.66%

-EUR 2.26

EUR 51.45

-10.27%

EUR 104.31

-55.74%

 

 

Italian Base

Jul-24

EUR 114.06

EUR 109.65

4.03%

EUR 4.41

EUR 95.04

20.01%

EUR 113.23

0.74%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jul-24

$11.31

$11.15

1.47%

$0.16

$10.12

11.79%

$12.50

-9.52%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

5/30/24

5/29/24

% Change

Change

5/1/24

% Change

5/31/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jul-24

$35.04

$34.13

2.65%

$0.90

$29.00

20.84%

$43.41

-19.28%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jul-24

$83.94

$81.86

2.54%

$2.08

$69.91

20.07%

$103.89

-19.20%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jul-24

$82.15

$80.68

1.83%

$1.47

$68.94

19.16%

$102.70

-20.01%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jul-24

$77.21

$76.71

0.65%

$0.50

$63.19

22.19%

$98.69

-21.77%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jul-24

$46.17

$48.42

-4.66%

-$2.26

$51.45

-10.27%

$104.31

-55.74%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$114.06

$109.65

4.03%

$4.41

$95.04

20.01%

$113.23

0.74%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jul-24

$11.31

$11.15

1.47%

$0.16

$10.12

11.79%

$12.50

-9.52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

9

7

9

9

6

4

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

17

9

17

26

12

13

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

29

14

26

40

5

28

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

23

4

10

48

-4

-13

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

63

16

22

350

35

-39

11.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

64

26

27

227

74

45

48.00%

25.00%

 

 

W S Central

101

35

45

475

112

39

31.00%

9.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

-9

-9

71

-46

-21

-39.00%

-24.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-9

-6

1

-44

-20

NA

NA

 

 

United States

37

10

17

151

16

1

12.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05/25/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-30

-40

5,720

-827

63

-13.00%

1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

-31

-34

5,149

-732

51

-12.00%

1.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-34

-30

5,338

-1,116

-460

-17.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

25

-12

-6

5,619

-1,092

-894

-16.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-8

-9

2,453

-403

2

-14.00%

0.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-12

-8

3,075

-534

-13

-15.00%

0.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

-3

2,059

-238

-43

-10.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Mountain

54

11

28

4,858

-262

-569

-5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

16

30

3,060

-81

-468

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

United States

16

-12

-8

3,926

-564

-240

-13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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