Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-01-2023

Nov 1, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:11 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.433

$3.575

-3.97%

-$0.142

54,162

 

 

WTI

$82.84

$81.02

2.25%

$1.82

108,984

 

 

Brent

$86.76

$87.41

-0.74%

-$0.65

14,605

 

 

ULSD

$2.965

$2.991

-0.87%

-$0.026

13,292

 

 

RBOB

$2.275

$2.223

2.34%

$0.052

9,731

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.44

$4.52

-1.77%

-$0.08

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$21.88

$21.41

2.20%

$0.47

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/27/23

625

1

-143

10/28/22

 

 

Canada

10/27/23

196

-2

-16

10/28/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/24/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,961

97,659

97,636

23

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,740

86,245

86,268

-23

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,497

395,200

407,590

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

157,335

133,285

113,842

19,443

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,155

118,014

121,812

-3,798

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,563

41,010

40,960

50

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,072

154,383

154,644

-261

 

 

RBOB

330,794

305,010

313,720

-8,710

 

 

HSC Basis

657,747

651,976

650,579

1,397

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/26/18

 

 

 

10/20/23

10/13/23

Net Change

% Change

10/21/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

908

896

12

1.34%

825

10.06%

879

3.28%

 

 

Midwest

1,075

1,050

25

2.38%

1,007

6.75%

1,046

2.79%

 

 

Mountain

252

248

4

1.61%

199

26.63%

208

20.92%

 

 

Pacific

283

280

3

1.07%

248

14.11%

277

2.31%

 

 

South

1,182

1,152

30

2.60%

1,116

5.91%

1,130

4.60%

 

 

    Salt

299

285

14

4.91%

277

7.94%

291

2.68%

 

 

    Non_Salt

883

868

15

1.73%

839

5.24%

839

5.24%

 

 

Total

3,700

3,626

74

2.04%

3,394

9.02%

3,540

4.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$44.16

$42.41

4.14%

$1.76

$42.64

3.56%

$62.63

-29.48%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$35.39

$43.68

-18.98%

-$8.29

$39.11

-9.51%

$49.39

-28.35%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$53.62

$59.48

-9.86%

-$5.86

$62.23

-13.85%

$79.13

-32.24%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$44.22

$41.82

5.75%

$2.40

$44.60

-0.84%

$64.52

-31.46%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$44.65

$52.45

-14.87%

-$7.80

$48.03

-7.05%

$89.74

-50.24%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$79.43

$86.08

-7.72%

-$6.65

$88.19

-9.93%

$96.95

-18.07%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$40.34

$46.74

-13.70%

-$6.40

$43.15

-6.51%

$57.87

-30.29%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.575

$3.352

6.65%

$0.22

$3.31

7.91%

$5.49

-34.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.237

-$0.250

-5.01%

$0.01

-$0.20

17.90%

-$0.28

-13.88%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.339

$0.338

-0.27%

$0.00

$0.27

24.03%

$0.14

146.98%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.492

-$0.491

-0.10%

$0.00

-$0.44

13.03%

-$1.34

-63.21%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$5.315

$5.109

4.03%

$0.21

$7.28

-26.97%

$13.32

-60.11%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.167

-$1.198

-2.65%

$0.03

-$1.00

16.96%

-$1.80

-35.28%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$5.581

$5.521

1.10%

$0.06

$4.62

20.89%

$1.44

288.33%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.678

$0.668

1.50%

$0.01

$0.73

-7.17%

$0.87

-22.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.678

$0.668

1.50%

$0.01

$0.73

-7.17%

$0.87

-21.66%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.260

$0.255

2.00%

$0.01

$0.28

-8.71%

$0.31

-16.38%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.525

$1.517

0.51%

$0.01

$1.66

-8.28%

$1.61

-5.03%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.860

$0.835

2.97%

$0.02

$0.87

-1.45%

$0.91

-5.84%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-23

$7.090

$6.820

3.95%

$0.27

$6.65

6.67%

$5.94

19.27%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-23

$6.168

$5.880

4.90%

$0.29

$5.94

3.82%

$5.63

9.62%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$81.02

$82.31

-1.59%

-$1.29

$87.44

-7.34%

$77.51

4.53%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$85.31

$87.45

-2.50%

-$2.14

$90.92

-6.17%

$83.35

2.36%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$25.03

-$25.34

-1.25%

$0.31

-$18.75

33.50%

-$22.00

13.80%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$83.55

$83.85

-0.36%

-$0.30

$87.38

-4.39%

$78.72

6.14%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$80.76

$81.23

-0.58%

-$0.47

$83.99

-3.84%

$73.93

9.24%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$80.61

$81.91

-1.61%

-$1.29

$85.43

-5.65%

$73.81

9.21%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$83.31

$85.45

-2.56%

-$2.14

$88.92

-6.30%

$80.21

3.86%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.01

$2.99

0.63%

$0.02

$3.21

-6.14%

$2.89

4.33%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.23

$2.27

-1.72%

-$0.04

$2.38

-6.43%

$2.67

-16.50%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.13

$2.17

-1.80%

-$0.04

$2.28

-6.71%

$2.57

-17.14%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.78

$2.81

-1.03%

-$0.03

$2.88

-3.40%

$2.63

5.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$1.93

$1.94

-0.46%

-$0.01

$2.02

-4.27%

$2.25

-14.34%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$809.06

$804.75

0.54%

$4.32

$857.70

-5.67%

$787.98

2.68%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$109.11

$110.35

-1.13%

-$1.25

$116.00

-5.94%

$101.08

7.94%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

57.58%

69.18%

-16.77%

-11.60%

58.12%

-0.93%

67.05%

-14.12%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

63.56%

83.38%

-23.77%

-19.82%

60.39%

5.25%

94.64%

-32.84%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

64.32%

78.14%

-17.69%

-13.82%

60.17%

6.90%

71.38%

-9.89%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

58.75%

71.74%

-18.11%

-12.99%

61.01%

-3.70%

70.39%

-16.54%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

67.91%

63.79%

6.46%

4.12%

64.38%

5.48%

58.07%

16.95%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

299.52%

343.28%

-12.75%

-43.76%

106.38%

181.56%

62.60%

378.47%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

263.56%

284.98%

-7.52%

-21.42%

177.57%

48.43%

81.52%

223.31%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 48.10

EUR 52.33

-8.09%

-EUR 4.23

EUR 42.07

14.32%

EUR 126.00

-61.83%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 124.46

GBP 136.40

-8.75%

-GBP 11.94

GBP 110.32

12.82%

GBP 303.05

-58.93%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 99.84

EUR 113.20

-11.80%

-EUR 13.36

EUR 103.49

-3.53%

EUR 454.64

-78.04%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 107.63

GBP 113.37

-5.06%

-GBP 5.74

GBP 100.89

6.68%

GBP 277.42

-61.20%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 108.90

EUR 120.32

-9.49%

-EUR 11.42

EUR 110.73

-1.66%

EUR 496.04

-78.05%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 142.80

EUR 147.28

-3.04%

-EUR 4.48

EUR 127.18

12.29%

EUR 288.95

-50.58%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$15.65

$17.03

-8.09%

-$1.38

$13.68

14.39%

$32.99

-52.56%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/23

10/30/23

% Change

Change

10/3/23

% Change

11/1/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$48.10

$52.33

-8.09%

-$4.23

$42.07

14.32%

$126.00

-61.83%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$124.46

$136.40

-8.75%

-$11.94

$110.32

12.82%

$303.05

-58.93%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$99.84

$113.20

-11.80%

-$13.36

$103.49

-3.53%

$454.64

-78.04%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$107.63

$113.37

-5.06%

-$5.74

$100.89

6.68%

$277.42

-61.20%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$108.90

$120.32

-9.49%

-$11.42

$110.73

-1.66%

$496.04

-78.05%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$142.80

$147.28

-3.04%

-$4.48

$127.18

12.29%

$288.95

-50.58%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$15.65

$17.03

-8.09%

-$1.38

$13.68

14.39%

$32.99

-52.56%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

1

1

551

134

-101

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

1

1

698

42

-157

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

1

-1

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

1

6

1,971

102

-87

5.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

9

13

1,627

90

-85

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

52

33

29

2,897

495

57

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

8

2

6

1,243

6

-141

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

695

-3

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

11

4

6

1,284

92

-123

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

-61

-13

387

-212

-92

-35.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

70

-41

-1

339

-135

-74

-28.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

71

-48

-5

416

-107

-102

-20.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

94

-28

2

402

-146

-93

-27.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

28

-21

-14

135

-30

-63

-18.00%

-32.00%

 

 

E S Central

22

-42

-28

145

-70

-121

-33.00%

-45.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-26

-23

54

-22

-29

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

94

-8

-33

347

-147

7

-30.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

65

10

-4

191

-76

58

-28.00%

44.00%

 

 

United States

54

-27

-11

254

-90

-51

-26.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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