Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-01-2024

Nov 1, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:34 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.704

$2.707

-0.11%

-$0.003

57,199

 

 

WTI

$71.07

$69.26

2.61%

$1.81

116,104

 

 

Brent

$74.48

$73.16

1.80%

$1.32

13,835

 

 

ULSD

$2.273

$2.220

2.40%

$0.053

15,478

 

 

RBOB

$2.011

$2.003

0.39%

$0.008

14,503

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.04

$4.00

1.00%

$0.04

Jan-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.19

$17.28

-0.50%

-$0.09

Dec-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Nov-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/25/24

585

0

-40

10/28/23

 

 

Canada

10/25/24

216

-1

20

10/28/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/22/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,401

87,981

87,836

145

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,637

83,521

82,685

836

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

336,149

321,508

321,151

357

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

146,756

121,900

118,492

3,408

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

156,807

148,927

150,706

-1,779

 

 

NYM Ethanol

31,969

30,932

31,285

-353

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,717

152,001

152,244

-243

 

 

RBOB

357,679

337,197

341,893

-4,696

 

 

HSC Basis

826,732

817,850

814,526

3,324

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/25/19

 

 

 

10/25/24

10/18/24

Net Change

% Change

10/27/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

919

901

18

2.00%

925

-0.65%

906

1.39%

 

 

Midwest

1,109

1,088

21

1.93%

1,100

0.82%

1,085

2.17%

 

 

Mountain

291

291

0

0.00%

255

14.12%

225

29.56%

 

 

Pacific

305

300

5

1.67%

285

7.02%

281

8.46%

 

 

South

1,240

1,205

35

2.90%

1,214

2.14%

1,203

3.04%

 

 

    Salt

331

314

17

5.41%

313

5.75%

315

5.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

909

891

18

2.02%

901

0.89%

889

2.27%

 

 

Total

3,863

3,785

78

2.06%

3,779

2.22%

3,701

4.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-24

$38.56

$38.94

-0.97%

-$0.38

$47.34

-18.54%

$47.33

-18.53%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-24

$28.24

$29.69

-4.89%

-$1.45

$37.73

-25.17%

$36.78

-23.23%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-24

$34.24

$35.00

-2.18%

-$0.76

$38.00

-9.90%

$66.05

-48.16%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-24

$34.49

$34.32

0.51%

$0.18

$44.92

-23.21%

$49.22

-29.92%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-24

$41.96

$43.54

-3.63%

-$1.58

$53.31

-21.28%

$68.89

-39.09%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-24

$52.90

$59.36

-10.89%

-$6.47

$64.00

-17.35%

$88.18

-40.01%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-24

$37.09

$38.51

-3.69%

-$1.42

$46.08

-19.51%

$50.42

-26.44%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-24

$2.707

$2.845

-4.85%

-$0.14

$3.37

-19.65%

$4.32

-37.31%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-24

-$0.352

-$0.372

-5.45%

$0.02

-$0.36

-1.15%

-$0.18

90.94%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-24

$0.262

$0.287

9.59%

-$0.03

$0.27

-3.82%

$0.22

17.45%

 

 

Waha

Dec-24

-$1.358

-$1.390

-2.25%

$0.03

-$0.66

105.01%

-$0.29

372.42%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-24

$4.094

$4.153

-1.40%

-$0.06

$4.60

-10.98%

$8.37

-51.08%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-24

-$1.317

-$1.314

0.28%

$0.00

-$1.53

-14.14%

-$1.29

1.81%

 

 

Socal

Dec-24

$2.372

$2.439

-2.77%

-$0.07

$2.50

-5.08%

$3.65

-35.02%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-24

$0.816

$0.812

0.54%

$0.00

$0.83

-1.16%

$0.73

11.80%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-24

$0.820

$0.819

0.17%

$0.00

$0.84

-2.05%

$0.74

10.53%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-24

$0.193

$0.193

-0.17%

$0.00

$0.23

-15.85%

$0.27

-27.81%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.480

$1.475

0.31%

$0.00

$1.55

-4.82%

$1.44

3.06%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-24

$1.096

$1.095

0.12%

$0.00

$1.10

-0.49%

$0.88

24.96%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-24

$6.381

$6.320

0.96%

$0.06

$6.83

-6.53%

$5.96

6.98%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-24

$6.344

$6.250

1.50%

$0.09

$6.38

-0.56%

$5.10

24.34%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-24

$69.26

$68.61

0.94%

$0.65

$73.17

-5.34%

$75.42

-8.17%

 

 

Brent

Dec-24

$72.97

$72.55

0.58%

$0.42

$77.62

-5.99%

$79.98

-8.76%

 

 

WCS

Dec-24

-$11.87

-$12.06

-1.60%

$0.19

-$14.44

-17.79%

-$13.51

-12.15%

 

 

LLS

Dec-24

$71.57

$70.55

1.42%

$1.02

$75.12

-4.72%

$78.97

-9.37%

 

 

Mars

Dec-24

$68.54

$67.10

2.09%

$1.44

$69.72

-1.69%

$75.97

-9.78%

 

 

Sour

Dec-24

$69.11

$68.90

0.30%

$0.21

$71.28

-3.04%

$74.90

-7.73%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-24

$70.97

$70.55

0.60%

$0.42

$75.62

-6.14%

$77.98

-8.98%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-24

$2.25

$2.16

4.21%

$0.09

$2.30

-2.13%

$2.64

-14.76%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-24

$2.04

$1.96

4.08%

$0.08

$2.04

-0.05%

$2.15

-5.25%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.94

$1.86

4.30%

$0.08

$1.94

-0.05%

$2.05

-5.50%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-24

$2.06

$2.03

1.33%

$0.03

$2.15

-4.01%

$2.66

-22.64%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-24

$1.58

$1.58

0.44%

$0.01

$1.55

2.06%

$1.76

-10.22%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-24

$622.29

$610.80

1.88%

$11.49

$656.05

-5.15%

$746.75

-16.67%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-24

$88.65

$86.93

1.98%

$1.72

$86.82

2.11%

$100.71

-11.98%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-24

65.74%

63.98%

2.75%

1.76%

55.91%

17.58%

43.56%

50.92%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-24

51.85%

63.24%

-18.01%

-11.39%

76.44%

-32.17%

48.54%

6.82%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-24

98.57%

100.22%

-1.65%

-1.65%

67.54%

45.94%

49.36%

99.70%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-24

65.50%

65.92%

-0.64%

-0.42%

56.78%

15.36%

43.66%

50.02%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-24

63.21%

63.99%

-1.22%

-0.78%

51.65%

22.38%

41.53%

52.20%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-24

138.35%

270.84%

-48.92%

-132.49%

173.82%

-20.41%

69.33%

99.55%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-24

138.61%

150.78%

-8.07%

-12.17%

275.81%

-49.74%

98.74%

40.38%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-24

EUR 38.67

EUR 41.56

-6.94%

-EUR 2.89

EUR 40.26

-3.94%

EUR 53.39

-27.56%

 

 

NBP

Dec-24

GBP 99.10

GBP 105.51

-6.08%

-GBP 6.42

GBP 102.03

-2.88%

GBP 141.43

-29.93%

 

 

German Base

Dec-24

EUR 84.05

EUR 90.20

-6.82%

-EUR 6.15

EUR 85.92

-2.17%

EUR 131.99

-36.32%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-24

GBP 87.35

GBP 88.15

-0.91%

-GBP 0.80

GBP 82.00

6.53%

GBP 119.82

-27.10%

 

 

French Base

Dec-24

EUR 80.09

EUR 83.16

-3.70%

-EUR 3.07

EUR 80.24

-0.19%

EUR 150.50

-46.79%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-24

EUR 121.84

EUR 123.69

-1.50%

-EUR 1.86

EUR 118.75

2.60%

EUR 151.40

-19.53%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-24

$13.48

$13.59

-0.81%

-$0.11

$13.17

2.36%

$16.55

-18.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/31/24

10/30/24

% Change

Change

10/3/24

% Change

11/1/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-24

$38.67

$41.56

-6.94%

-$2.89

$40.26

-3.94%

$53.39

-27.56%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-24

$99.10

$105.51

-6.08%

-$6.42

$102.03

-2.88%

$141.43

-29.93%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-24

$84.05

$90.20

-6.82%

-$6.15

$85.92

-2.17%

$131.99

-36.32%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-24

$87.35

$88.15

-0.91%

-$0.80

$82.00

6.53%

$119.82

-27.10%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-24

$80.09

$83.16

-3.70%

-$3.07

$80.24

-0.19%

$150.50

-46.79%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$121.84

$123.69

-1.50%

-$1.86

$118.75

2.60%

$151.40

-19.53%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$13.48

$13.59

-0.81%

-$0.11

$13.17

2.36%

$16.55

-18.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/26/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

75

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

778

70

114

10.00%

17.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

0

-2

994

67

-63

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

0

4

2,074

209

109

11.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-1

-2

1,785

248

162

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

43

22

-8

2,729

331

-163

14.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

9

3

-5

1,425

189

183

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

4

0

-2

906

208

211

30.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

10

2

-1

1,364

173

82

15.00%

6.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/26/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

67

-55

-13

437

-125

55

-22.00%

14.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

71

-35

-8

313

-128

-15

-29.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E N Central

74

-40

-4

362

-125

-35

-26.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W N Central

66

-49

3

331

-179

-22

-35.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

27

-19

-9

111

-40

-22

-26.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E S Central

33

-28

2

141

-54

-2

-28.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W S Central

6

-21

4

36

-30

-16

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

73

-24

8

251

-212

-57

-46.00%

-18.00%

 

 

Pacific

26

-26

-19

149

-101

-16

-40.00%

-10.00%

 

 

United States

46

-31

-6

220

-100

-19

-31.00%

-8.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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