Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-03-2023

Nov 3, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:03 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.493

$3.472

0.60%

$0.021

45,297

 

 

WTI

$82.07

$82.46

-0.47%

-$0.39

148,043

 

 

Brent

$86.37

$86.85

-0.55%

-$0.48

12,333

 

 

ULSD

$2.993

$3.026

-1.07%

-$0.032

13,020

 

 

RBOB

$2.220

$2.246

-1.14%

-$0.026

7,424

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.64

$4.69

-1.07%

-$0.05

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$21.24

$21.88

-2.91%

-$0.64

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.92

$44.36

-1.00%

-$0.44

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/27/23

625

1

-143

10/28/22

 

 

Canada

10/27/23

196

-2

-16

10/28/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/24/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,961

97,659

97,636

23

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,740

86,245

86,268

-23

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,497

395,200

407,590

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

157,335

133,285

113,842

19,443

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,155

118,014

121,812

-3,798

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,563

41,010

40,960

50

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,072

154,383

154,644

-261

 

 

RBOB

330,794

305,010

313,720

-8,710

 

 

HSC Basis

657,747

651,976

650,579

1,397

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/02/18

 

 

 

10/27/23

10/20/23

Net Change

% Change

10/28/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

925

908

17

1.87%

848

9.08%

891

3.77%

 

 

Midwest

1,100

1,075

25

2.33%

1,042

5.57%

1,064

3.36%

 

 

Mountain

255

252

3

1.19%

204

25.00%

209

21.89%

 

 

Pacific

285

283

2

0.71%

247

15.38%

276

3.26%

 

 

South

1,214

1,182

32

2.71%

1,160

4.66%

1,153

5.33%

 

 

    Salt

313

299

14

4.68%

299

4.68%

305

2.76%

 

 

    Non_Salt

901

883

18

2.04%

861

4.65%

848

6.25%

 

 

Total

3,779

3,700

79

2.14%

3,501

7.94%

3,594

5.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$51.40

$51.79

-0.76%

-$0.40

$52.60

-2.29%

$72.57

-29.18%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$47.41

$47.15

0.54%

$0.26

$50.69

-6.46%

$51.64

-8.19%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$91.99

$93.12

-1.21%

-$1.12

$96.88

-5.04%

$84.75

8.54%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$48.78

$49.06

-0.57%

-$0.28

$50.06

-2.57%

$72.92

-33.10%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$69.58

$77.20

-9.87%

-$7.62

$86.40

-19.46%

$150.59

-53.80%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$139.49

$126.35

10.40%

$13.14

$133.26

4.67%

$109.52

27.36%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$56.55

$60.94

-7.20%

-$4.39

$65.61

-13.80%

$88.96

-36.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.472

$3.494

-0.63%

-$0.02

$3.51

-1.11%

$5.57

-37.69%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.340

-$0.276

23.14%

-$0.06

-$0.17

96.14%

-$0.28

22.82%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.266

$0.295

10.77%

-$0.03

$0.33

-18.73%

$0.12

124.89%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.720

-$0.536

-34.21%

-$0.18

-$0.41

77.48%

-$1.33

-45.76%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$4.249

$4.536

-6.34%

-$0.29

$6.59

-35.49%

$13.85

-69.33%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.262

-$1.280

-1.41%

$0.02

-$1.12

13.18%

-$1.84

-31.56%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$4.818

$4.897

-1.62%

-$0.08

$5.14

-6.35%

$1.47

227.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.653

$0.670

-2.61%

-$0.02

$0.69

-5.78%

$0.87

-24.67%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.650

$0.675

-3.70%

-$0.02

$0.70

-6.48%

$0.86

-24.71%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.263

$0.258

1.92%

$0.00

$0.29

-7.94%

$0.30

-12.90%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.520

$1.500

1.33%

$0.02

$1.52

-0.20%

$1.57

-2.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.874

$0.861

1.45%

$0.01

$0.83

5.26%

$0.92

-5.16%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$7.167

$7.189

-0.31%

-$0.02

$6.41

11.81%

$5.97

20.09%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.012

$5.976

0.60%

$0.04

$5.80

3.65%

$5.42

10.98%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$82.46

$80.44

2.45%

$2.02

$80.81

2.04%

$77.93

5.82%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$87.16

$84.92

2.56%

$2.23

$84.07

3.67%

$84.00

3.76%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$25.27

-$26.20

-3.65%

$0.92

-$21.50

17.55%

-$22.88

10.47%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$84.39

$84.27

0.15%

$0.12

$80.90

4.32%

$80.98

4.22%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$76.38

$81.21

-6.32%

-$4.83

$77.72

-1.74%

$75.29

1.44%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$82.05

$80.29

2.14%

$1.75

$79.39

3.34%

$74.73

9.79%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$85.16

$82.92

2.62%

$2.23

$82.07

3.76%

$81.47

4.52%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$3.01

$2.90

3.93%

$0.11

$2.81

7.30%

$2.96

1.89%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.21

$2.19

0.87%

$0.02

$2.15

2.79%

$2.26

-2.12%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.11

$2.10

0.91%

$0.02

$2.05

2.92%

$2.16

-2.22%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.88

$2.89

-0.35%

-$0.01

$2.51

14.81%

$3.02

-4.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.78

$1.79

-0.22%

$0.00

$1.88

-4.80%

$2.21

-19.19%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$818.14

$800.00

2.27%

$18.14

$771.90

5.99%

$796.32

2.74%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$109.19

$108.08

1.03%

$1.11

$106.24

2.77%

$103.76

5.23%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

63.03%

63.46%

-0.68%

-0.43%

54.15%

16.40%

62.36%

1.07%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

86.17%

85.30%

1.02%

0.87%

71.71%

20.16%

102.83%

-16.20%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

77.58%

70.57%

9.93%

7.01%

59.23%

30.98%

70.63%

9.84%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

64.23%

65.50%

-1.94%

-1.27%

61.26%

4.85%

64.89%

-1.02%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

68.07%

67.28%

1.17%

0.79%

66.44%

2.45%

56.28%

20.95%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

291.91%

289.07%

0.98%

2.84%

117.95%

147.49%

63.42%

360.28%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

357.49%

296.98%

20.38%

60.51%

194.99%

83.34%

82.78%

331.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 49.09

EUR 48.89

0.40%

EUR 0.20

EUR 41.78

17.49%

EUR 129.39

-62.06%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 125.59

GBP 125.48

0.08%

GBP 0.10

GBP 108.12

16.15%

GBP 332.28

-62.20%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 98.00

EUR 98.03

-0.03%

-EUR 0.03

EUR 106.55

-8.03%

EUR 496.10

-80.25%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 99.03

GBP 101.02

-1.97%

-GBP 1.99

GBP 100.27

-1.23%

GBP 302.55

-67.27%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 104.00

EUR 107.81

-3.53%

-EUR 3.81

EUR 113.93

-8.72%

EUR 563.72

-81.55%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 136.83

EUR 139.57

-1.97%

-EUR 2.74

EUR 128.05

6.86%

EUR 301.13

-54.56%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$17.08

$17.50

-2.44%

-$0.43

$13.85

23.33%

$35.79

-52.29%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/2/23

11/1/23

% Change

Change

10/5/23

% Change

11/3/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$49.09

$48.89

0.40%

$0.20

$41.78

17.49%

$129.39

-62.06%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$125.59

$125.48

0.08%

$0.10

$108.12

16.15%

$332.28

-62.20%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$98.00

$98.03

-0.03%

-$0.03

$106.55

-8.03%

$496.10

-80.25%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$99.03

$101.02

-1.97%

-$1.99

$100.27

-1.23%

$302.55

-67.27%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$104.00

$107.81

-3.53%

-$3.81

$113.93

-8.72%

$563.72

-81.55%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$136.83

$139.57

-1.97%

-$2.74

$128.05

6.86%

$301.13

-54.56%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$17.08

$17.50

-2.44%

-$0.43

$13.85

23.33%

$35.79

-52.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

1

1

551

134

-101

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

1

1

698

42

-157

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

1

-1

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

1

6

1,971

102

-87

5.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

9

13

1,627

90

-85

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

52

33

29

2,897

495

57

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

8

2

6

1,243

6

-141

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

695

-3

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

11

4

6

1,284

92

-123

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

-61

-13

387

-212

-92

-35.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

70

-41

-1

339

-135

-74

-28.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

71

-48

-5

416

-107

-102

-20.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

94

-28

2

402

-146

-93

-27.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

28

-21

-14

135

-30

-63

-18.00%

-32.00%

 

 

E S Central

22

-42

-28

145

-70

-121

-33.00%

-45.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-26

-23

54

-22

-29

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

94

-8

-33

347

-147

7

-30.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

65

10

-4

191

-76

58

-28.00%

44.00%

 

 

United States

54

-27

-11

254

-90

-51

-26.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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