Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-04-2024

Nov 4, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.622

$2.663

-1.54%

-$0.041

31,331

 

 

WTI

$71.46

$69.49

2.83%

$1.97

63,705

 

 

Brent

$75.02

$73.16

2.54%

$1.86

7,463

 

 

ULSD

$2.290

$2.234

2.49%

$0.056

6,411

 

 

RBOB

$2.025

$1.967

2.98%

$0.059

6,762

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.99

$4.02

-0.75%

-$0.03

Jan-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.32

$16.92

2.39%

$0.40

Dec-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.41

$40.24

-2.07%

-$0.83

Dec-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/01/24

585

0

-33

11/04/23

 

 

Canada

11/01/24

213

-3

17

11/04/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/29/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,192

90,773

90,625

148

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,471

86,365

85,462

903

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

336,901

321,666

320,701

965

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

155,520

129,374

127,827

1,547

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

154,376

146,150

147,737

-1,587

 

 

NYM Ethanol

33,088

32,209

32,401

-192

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

157,164

156,222

156,693

-471

 

 

RBOB

358,526

340,645

342,866

-2,221

 

 

HSC Basis

855,136

847,713

842,341

5,372

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/25/19

 

 

 

10/25/24

10/18/24

Net Change

% Change

10/27/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

919

901

18

2.00%

925

-0.65%

906

1.39%

 

 

Midwest

1,109

1,088

21

1.93%

1,100

0.82%

1,085

2.17%

 

 

Mountain

291

291

0

0.00%

255

14.12%

225

29.56%

 

 

Pacific

305

300

5

1.67%

285

7.02%

281

8.46%

 

 

South

1,240

1,205

35

2.90%

1,214

2.14%

1,203

3.04%

 

 

    Salt

331

314

17

5.41%

313

5.75%

315

5.21%

 

 

    Non_Salt

909

891

18

2.02%

901

0.89%

889

2.27%

 

 

Total

3,863

3,785

78

2.06%

3,779

2.22%

3,701

4.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-24

$45.05

$45.94

-1.94%

-$0.89

$53.03

-15.05%

$55.06

-18.18%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-24

$33.46

$34.94

-4.22%

-$1.47

$42.86

-21.91%

$47.18

-29.07%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-24

$54.07

$56.25

-3.88%

-$2.18

$64.22

-15.80%

$97.21

-44.38%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-24

$41.02

$42.02

-2.38%

-$1.00

$49.43

-17.02%

$50.89

-19.40%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-24

$64.07

$66.85

-4.15%

-$2.77

$80.76

-20.66%

$109.46

-41.46%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-24

$84.96

$86.25

-1.50%

-$1.29

$98.69

-13.92%

$128.01

-33.63%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-24

$50.51

$51.46

-1.85%

-$0.95

$60.99

-17.20%

$78.65

-35.78%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-24

$2.663

$2.707

-1.63%

-$0.04

$3.31

-19.43%

$4.35

-38.73%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-24

-$0.367

-$0.352

4.29%

-$0.02

-$0.42

-12.28%

-$0.20

80.62%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-24

$0.267

$0.262

-2.02%

$0.01

$0.25

5.16%

$0.22

20.09%

 

 

Waha

Dec-24

-$1.391

-$1.358

-2.41%

-$0.03

-$0.69

102.45%

-$0.31

351.33%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-24

$4.082

$4.094

-0.29%

-$0.01

$4.86

-16.00%

$8.41

-51.47%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-24

-$1.354

-$1.317

2.77%

-$0.04

-$1.49

-9.09%

-$1.31

3.15%

 

 

Socal

Dec-24

$2.014

$2.372

-15.10%

-$0.36

$2.37

-15.01%

$3.68

-45.29%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-24

$0.810

$0.821

-1.38%

-$0.01

$0.84

-3.12%

$0.73

11.38%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-24

$0.816

$0.828

-1.36%

-$0.01

$0.84

-2.82%

$0.73

12.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-24

$0.185

$0.195

-5.09%

-$0.01

$0.23

-19.52%

$0.28

-33.70%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.505

$1.475

2.03%

$0.03

$1.58

-4.53%

$1.45

3.80%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-24

$1.073

$1.065

0.79%

$0.01

$1.09

-1.19%

$0.89

20.09%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-24

$6.218

$6.353

-2.13%

-$0.14

$6.83

-8.90%

$6.00

3.64%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-24

$6.280

$6.246

0.54%

$0.03

$6.39

-1.72%

$5.19

20.99%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-24

$69.49

$69.26

0.33%

$0.23

$73.68

-5.69%

$77.05

-9.81%

 

 

Brent

Dec-24

$73.27

$72.97

0.40%

$0.29

$78.05

-6.13%

$81.71

-10.33%

 

 

WCS

Dec-24

-$12.41

-$11.87

4.34%

-$0.54

-$14.11

-12.06%

-$15.37

-19.28%

 

 

LLS

Dec-24

$71.69

$71.57

0.16%

$0.12

$75.43

-4.97%

$78.72

-8.94%

 

 

Mars

Dec-24

$69.06

$68.54

0.75%

$0.52

$72.13

-4.27%

$75.84

-8.94%

 

 

Sour

Dec-24

$69.20

$69.11

0.13%

$0.09

$73.81

-6.24%

$76.38

-9.41%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-24

$71.27

$70.97

0.41%

$0.29

$76.05

-6.29%

$79.71

-10.59%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-24

$2.23

$2.26

-1.37%

-$0.03

$2.33

-4.29%

$2.69

-17.18%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.97

$2.00

-1.65%

-$0.03

$2.07

-4.93%

$2.13

-7.70%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.87

$1.90

-1.74%

-$0.03

$1.97

-5.18%

$2.03

-8.07%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-24

$2.06

$2.05

0.54%

$0.01

$2.16

-4.76%

$2.59

-20.42%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-24

$1.57

$1.55

1.29%

$0.02

$1.53

2.48%

$1.72

-8.51%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-24

$628.93

$623.44

0.88%

$5.49

$664.52

-5.36%

$750.51

-16.20%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-24

$89.26

$87.45

2.06%

$1.80

$91.56

-2.51%

$100.14

-10.87%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-24

64.04%

65.74%

-2.59%

-1.70%

60.72%

5.47%

45.83%

39.73%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-24

62.82%

51.85%

21.16%

10.97%

78.98%

-20.46%

50.77%

23.73%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-24

100.84%

98.57%

2.30%

2.27%

76.37%

32.04%

50.93%

98.00%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-24

65.57%

65.50%

0.11%

0.07%

61.64%

6.38%

44.39%

47.71%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-24

60.93%

63.21%

-3.61%

-2.28%

49.66%

22.69%

41.72%

46.05%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-24

155.67%

138.35%

12.52%

17.32%

174.23%

-10.65%

69.11%

125.25%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-24

155.00%

138.61%

11.82%

16.39%

265.42%

-41.60%

103.11%

50.32%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-24

EUR 38.94

EUR 38.67

0.68%

EUR 0.26

EUR 41.29

-5.70%

EUR 51.84

-24.89%

 

 

NBP

Dec-24

GBP 98.92

GBP 99.10

-0.17%

-GBP 0.17

GBP 104.33

-5.18%

GBP 143.81

-31.21%

 

 

German Base

Dec-24

EUR 84.67

EUR 84.05

0.73%

EUR 0.62

EUR 86.99

-2.67%

EUR 132.17

-35.94%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-24

GBP 85.65

GBP 87.35

-1.95%

-GBP 1.70

GBP 84.50

1.36%

GBP 118.48

-27.71%

 

 

French Base

Dec-24

EUR 79.61

EUR 80.09

-0.59%

-EUR 0.48

EUR 80.25

-0.79%

EUR 148.64

-46.44%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-24

EUR 112.19

EUR 121.84

-7.92%

-EUR 9.65

EUR 122.21

-8.20%

EUR 154.58

-27.42%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-24

$12.98

$13.29

-2.35%

-$0.31

$14.19

-8.55%

$17.16

-24.38%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/24

10/31/24

% Change

Change

10/4/24

% Change

11/2/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-24

$38.94

$38.67

0.68%

$0.26

$41.29

-5.70%

$51.84

-24.89%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-24

$98.92

$99.10

-0.17%

-$0.17

$104.33

-5.18%

$143.81

-31.21%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-24

$84.67

$84.05

0.73%

$0.62

$86.99

-2.67%

$132.17

-35.94%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-24

$85.65

$87.35

-1.95%

-$1.70

$84.50

1.36%

$118.48

-27.71%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-24

$79.61

$80.09

-0.59%

-$0.48

$80.25

-0.79%

$148.64

-46.44%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$112.19

$121.84

-7.92%

-$9.65

$122.21

-8.20%

$154.58

-27.42%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$12.98

$13.29

-2.35%

-$0.31

$14.19

-8.55%

$17.16

-24.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

3

2

3

782

73

117

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

3

4

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

24

7

0

2,098

216

110

11.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

11

4

1,800

260

170

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

50

34

33

2,778

365

-121

15.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-2

1

1,428

188

184

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-2

0

906

206

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

12

6

5

1,376

179

88

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/02/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

108

-27

-8

545

-152

48

-22.00%

9.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

88

-33

-16

401

-161

-30

-29.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E N Central

85

-47

-66

447

-173

-101

-28.00%

-18.00%

 

 

W N Central

91

-48

-118

422

-227

-140

-35.00%

-25.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

28

-27

-17

139

-67

-39

-33.00%

-22.00%

 

 

E S Central

25

-48

-55

166

-102

-57

-38.00%

-26.00%

 

 

W S Central

5

-32

-72

41

-63

-88

-61.00%

-68.00%

 

 

Mountain

117

2

-30

367

-211

-87

-37.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Pacific

81

18

15

230

-83

-1

-27.00%

0.00%

 

 

United States

65

-26

-36

285

-125

-54

-30.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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