Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-09-2023

Nov 9, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:55 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.058

$3.106

-1.55%

-$0.048

45,158

 

 

WTI

$76.29

$75.33

1.27%

$0.96

102,003

 

 

Brent

$80.49

$79.54

1.19%

$0.95

9,158

 

 

ULSD

$2.705

$2.749

-1.60%

-$0.044

15,501

 

 

RBOB

$2.159

$2.128

1.43%

$0.031

8,008

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.27

$4.23

0.95%

$0.04

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.88

$21.55

-3.14%

-$0.68

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.55

$40.76

-0.52%

-$0.21

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/03/23

618

-7

-152

11/04/22

 

 

Canada

11/03/23

196

0

-13

11/04/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/31/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,372

97,113

97,029

84

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,303

85,827

85,744

83

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

402,862

379,416

391,700

-12,284

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

164,257

143,396

120,646

22,750

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

140,176

129,726

132,573

-2,847

 

 

NYM Ethanol

43,317

42,797

42,689

108

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

160,450

159,956

160,012

-56

 

 

RBOB

314,944

289,976

298,499

-8,523

 

 

HSC Basis

678,641

673,328

670,730

2,598

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/02/18

 

 

 

10/27/23

10/20/23

Net Change

% Change

10/28/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

925

908

17

1.87%

848

9.08%

891

3.77%

 

 

Midwest

1,100

1,075

25

2.33%

1,042

5.57%

1,064

3.36%

 

 

Mountain

255

252

3

1.19%

204

25.00%

209

21.89%

 

 

Pacific

285

283

2

0.71%

247

15.38%

276

3.26%

 

 

South

1,214

1,182

32

2.71%

1,160

4.66%

1,153

5.33%

 

 

    Salt

313

299

14

4.68%

299

4.68%

305

2.76%

 

 

    Non_Salt

901

883

18

2.04%

861

4.65%

848

6.25%

 

 

Total

3,779

3,700

79

2.14%

3,501

7.94%

3,594

5.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$47.09

$47.41

-0.68%

-$0.32

$53.58

-12.12%

$70.78

-33.47%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$43.68

$43.98

-0.70%

-$0.31

$50.24

-13.06%

$56.74

-23.02%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$90.46

$88.28

2.47%

$2.18

$98.25

-7.93%

$85.78

5.45%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$44.71

$45.00

-0.66%

-$0.30

$51.38

-12.99%

$69.56

-35.73%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$64.16

$64.72

-0.87%

-$0.56

$89.52

-28.33%

$149.92

-57.21%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$136.92

$130.38

5.01%

$6.54

$131.21

4.35%

$126.00

8.66%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$52.44

$53.56

-2.09%

-$1.12

$69.20

-24.21%

$85.08

-38.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.106

$3.140

-1.08%

-$0.03

$3.66

-15.09%

$5.45

-43.06%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.365

-$0.377

-3.26%

$0.01

-$0.19

92.11%

-$0.28

31.44%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.177

$0.164

-6.85%

$0.01

$0.25

-30.66%

$0.12

52.90%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.793

-$0.856

-7.33%

$0.06

-$0.40

98.23%

-$1.33

-40.35%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.410

$3.415

-0.17%

-$0.01

$6.17

-44.72%

$14.19

-75.97%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.110

-$1.140

-2.68%

$0.03

-$1.18

-5.85%

-$1.96

-43.51%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$4.431

$4.687

-5.46%

-$0.26

$5.23

-15.30%

$1.66

167.57%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.621

$0.631

-1.59%

-$0.01

$0.70

-10.93%

$0.86

-27.62%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.617

$0.629

-1.80%

-$0.01

$0.69

-10.84%

$0.87

-29.39%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.239

$0.264

-9.44%

-$0.02

$0.28

-14.24%

$0.33

-27.18%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.426

$1.480

-3.64%

-$0.05

$1.56

-8.43%

$1.58

-9.63%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.831

$0.843

-1.34%

-$0.01

$0.83

0.32%

$0.94

-11.74%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$7.031

$7.000

0.44%

$0.03

$6.36

10.61%

$5.91

18.96%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.091

$6.030

1.01%

$0.06

$5.77

5.63%

$5.52

10.28%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$75.33

$77.37

-2.71%

-$2.04

$82.07

-8.21%

$76.69

-1.77%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$79.62

$81.77

-2.69%

-$2.14

$85.82

-7.22%

$82.57

-3.57%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$24.00

-$25.70

-7.05%

$1.69

-$20.59

16.56%

-$22.56

6.42%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$77.44

$79.13

-2.18%

-$1.69

$82.54

-6.18%

$79.27

-2.30%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$74.39

$76.80

-3.25%

-$2.42

$79.89

-6.89%

$73.98

0.55%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$74.65

$76.50

-2.48%

-$1.85

$81.72

-8.66%

$73.49

1.58%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$77.62

$79.77

-2.76%

-$2.14

$83.82

-7.39%

$79.63

-2.52%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.75

$2.83

-2.79%

-$0.08

$2.92

-5.72%

$2.85

-3.61%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.13

$2.17

-1.52%

-$0.03

$2.20

-3.13%

$2.21

-3.22%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.04

$2.07

-1.60%

-$0.03

$2.10

-3.28%

$2.11

-3.37%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.49

$2.58

-3.38%

-$0.09

$2.65

-6.29%

$2.68

-7.20%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.80

$1.74

3.28%

$0.06

$1.93

-6.75%

$2.08

-13.49%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$766.90

$772.64

-0.74%

-$5.74

$805.38

-4.78%

$782.70

-2.02%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$104.94

$107.89

-2.74%

-$2.95

$110.32

-4.88%

$104.50

0.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

68.53%

67.28%

1.86%

1.25%

62.02%

10.50%

64.50%

6.25%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

87.37%

87.99%

-0.70%

-0.62%

82.96%

5.32%

88.72%

-1.52%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

94.61%

94.11%

0.53%

0.50%

72.32%

30.82%

87.04%

8.70%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

70.59%

68.15%

3.58%

2.44%

67.89%

3.98%

64.90%

8.77%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

63.00%

63.16%

-0.25%

-0.16%

64.81%

-2.79%

57.23%

10.08%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

280.32%

314.15%

-10.77%

-33.83%

131.69%

112.86%

65.57%

327.51%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

396.69%

477.65%

-16.95%

-80.96%

237.72%

66.87%

85.98%

361.37%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 45.65

EUR 46.50

-1.82%

-EUR 0.84

EUR 49.52

-7.81%

EUR 127.50

-64.19%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 115.47

GBP 118.40

-2.47%

-GBP 2.93

GBP 128.12

-9.87%

GBP 317.05

-63.58%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 93.81

EUR 94.34

-0.56%

-EUR 0.53

EUR 120.98

-22.46%

EUR 418.56

-77.59%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 96.82

GBP 94.52

2.43%

GBP 2.30

GBP 118.29

-18.15%

GBP 282.05

-65.67%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 99.79

EUR 100.52

-0.73%

-EUR 0.73

EUR 133.76

-25.40%

EUR 500.00

-80.04%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 124.96

EUR 130.03

-3.90%

-EUR 5.07

EUR 150.40

-16.92%

EUR 291.99

-57.20%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$16.91

$17.30

-2.26%

-$0.39

$16.65

1.56%

$33.70

-49.83%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/8/23

11/7/23

% Change

Change

10/11/23

% Change

11/9/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$45.65

$46.50

-1.82%

-$0.84

$49.52

-7.81%

$127.50

-64.19%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$115.47

$118.40

-2.47%

-$2.93

$128.12

-9.87%

$317.05

-63.58%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$93.81

$94.34

-0.56%

-$0.53

$120.98

-22.46%

$418.56

-77.59%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$96.82

$94.52

2.43%

$2.30

$118.29

-18.15%

$282.05

-65.67%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$99.79

$100.52

-0.73%

-$0.73

$133.76

-25.40%

$500.00

-80.04%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$124.96

$130.03

-3.90%

-$5.07

$150.40

-16.92%

$291.99

-57.20%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$16.91

$17.30

-2.26%

-$0.39

$16.65

1.56%

$33.70

-49.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/04/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-101

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-157

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

18

1

-6

1,989

104

-92

6.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

0

3

1,630

90

-82

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-10

-16

2,901

486

42

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

3

-1

2

1,245

4

-139

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-2

0

695

-5

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

4

-1

-2

1,289

92

-125

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/04/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

153

14

56

540

-198

-35

-27.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

131

7

50

470

-129

-24

-22.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E N Central

170

33

90

586

-75

-12

-11.00%

-2.00%

 

 

W N Central

202

57

115

605

-88

21

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

67

9

33

201

-22

-30

-10.00%

-13.00%

 

 

E S Central

107

30

70

252

-39

-50

-13.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W S Central

90

49

62

144

27

34

23.00%

31.00%

 

 

Mountain

132

12

0

479

-135

7

-22.00%

1.00%

 

 

Pacific

46

-21

-39

237

-97

19

-29.00%

9.00%

 

 

United States

112

17

44

366

-73

-7

-17.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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