Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-15-2024

Nov 15, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:07 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.702

$2.785

-2.98%

-$0.083

20,563

 

 

WTI

$68.65

$68.70

-0.07%

-$0.05

39,139

 

 

Brent

$72.44

$72.56

-0.17%

-$0.12

6,619

 

 

ULSD

$2.208

$2.212

-0.21%

-$0.005

5,995

 

 

RBOB

$1.990

$1.982

0.41%

$0.008

3,842

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.99

$4.03

-0.99%

-$0.04

Jan-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.56

$17.24

1.86%

$0.32

Dec-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.29

$43.22

-9.11%

-$3.94

Dec-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/08/24

585

0

-31

11/11/23

 

 

Canada

11/08/24

207

-6

8

11/11/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/5/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

83,890

83,481

83,346

135

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

80,886

80,787

79,906

881

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

323,325

309,552

308,806

746

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

269,493

218,547

218,965

-418

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,995

130,955

132,409

-1,454

 

 

NYM Ethanol

28,281

27,626

27,624

2

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

141,113

139,899

140,590

-691

 

 

RBOB

357,911

339,111

343,579

-4,468

 

 

HSC Basis

805,526

797,401

795,047

2,354

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/08/19

 

 

 

11/8/24

11/1/24

Net Change

% Change

11/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

942

934

8

0.86%

931

1.18%

920

2.44%

 

 

Midwest

1,143

1,130

13

1.15%

1,116

2.42%

1,105

3.46%

 

 

Mountain

290

290

0

0.00%

256

13.28%

225

29.00%

 

 

Pacific

312

310

2

0.65%

292

6.85%

281

11.19%

 

 

South

1,286

1,267

19

1.50%

1,238

3.88%

1,232

4.38%

 

 

    Salt

349

341

8

2.35%

332

5.12%

331

5.57%

 

 

    Non_Salt

937

926

11

1.19%

906

3.42%

901

3.95%

 

 

Total

3,974

3,932

42

1.07%

3,833

3.68%

3,762

5.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-24

$45.07

$49.18

-8.37%

-$4.11

$49.89

-9.67%

$54.16

-16.79%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-24

$34.07

$37.13

-8.25%

-$3.06

$34.86

-2.25%

$45.05

-24.38%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-24

$49.55

$51.78

-4.30%

-$2.23

$64.09

-22.68%

$96.20

-48.49%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-24

$40.88

$44.83

-8.80%

-$3.94

$46.10

-11.32%

$49.77

-17.87%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-24

$66.77

$72.63

-8.06%

-$5.85

$70.63

-5.47%

$112.17

-40.47%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-24

$73.50

$81.61

-9.94%

-$8.11

$100.38

-26.78%

$127.57

-42.38%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-24

$51.76

$56.08

-7.71%

-$4.32

$56.31

-8.09%

$82.45

-37.23%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-24

$2.766

$2.983

-7.27%

-$0.22

$2.83

-2.26%

$4.24

-34.83%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-24

-$0.395

-$0.422

-6.44%

$0.03

-$0.40

-1.82%

-$0.20

96.96%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-24

$0.202

$0.208

3.03%

-$0.01

$0.27

-25.66%

$0.22

-9.76%

 

 

Waha

Dec-24

-$1.348

-$1.731

-22.11%

$0.38

-$0.90

49.79%

-$0.37

267.10%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-24

$3.686

$3.697

-0.29%

-$0.01

$4.00

-7.82%

$7.76

-52.48%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-24

-$1.621

-$1.646

-1.53%

$0.03

-$1.07

51.09%

-$1.26

28.33%

 

 

Socal

Dec-24

$1.485

$1.554

-4.42%

-$0.07

$2.74

-45.82%

$3.74

-60.33%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-24

$0.785

$0.785

0.00%

$0.00

$0.76

2.97%

$0.70

12.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-24

$0.789

$0.790

-0.16%

$0.00

$0.78

1.77%

$0.70

12.72%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-24

$0.197

$0.197

0.02%

$0.00

$0.22

-10.74%

$0.28

-30.00%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.470

$1.445

1.76%

$0.03

$1.48

-0.39%

$1.43

2.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-24

$1.035

$1.062

-2.55%

-$0.03

$1.06

-1.91%

$0.85

21.19%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-24

$6.135

$6.180

-0.73%

-$0.05

$6.51

-5.76%

$5.97

2.76%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-24

$6.200

$6.200

0.00%

$0.00

$6.22

-0.32%

$5.31

16.81%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-25

$68.53

$68.26

0.39%

$0.27

$69.64

-1.59%

$73.67

-6.98%

 

 

Brent

Jan-25

$72.56

$72.28

0.39%

$0.28

$73.98

-1.92%

$78.14

-7.14%

 

 

WCS

Jan-25

-$11.92

-$12.06

-1.19%

$0.14

-$13.61

-12.42%

-$15.34

-22.31%

 

 

LLS

Jan-25

$70.09

$69.61

0.68%

$0.48

$71.33

-1.74%

$75.49

-7.16%

 

 

Mars

Jan-25

$66.61

$66.78

-0.26%

-$0.17

$68.10

-2.19%

$72.39

-7.98%

 

 

Sour

Jan-25

$68.48

$67.93

0.80%

$0.55

$69.80

-1.89%

$73.23

-6.48%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-25

$70.56

$70.28

0.40%

$0.28

$71.98

-1.97%

$76.14

-7.33%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-24

$2.21

$2.21

-0.09%

$0.00

$2.20

0.23%

$2.57

-13.84%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.93

$1.96

-1.18%

-$0.02

$2.01

-3.88%

$2.07

-6.71%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.83

$1.86

-1.24%

-$0.02

$1.91

-4.08%

$1.97

-7.05%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-24

$2.04

$2.05

-0.83%

-$0.02

$2.03

0.05%

$2.64

-23.06%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-24

$1.62

$1.60

1.25%

$0.02

$1.51

7.28%

$1.69

-4.14%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-24

$630.78

$617.98

2.07%

$12.80

$618.45

1.99%

$707.44

-10.84%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-24

$87.65

$87.18

0.54%

$0.47

$85.50

2.51%

$97.81

-10.39%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-25

79.86%

67.14%

18.95%

12.72%

66.08%

20.85%

46.28%

72.56%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-25

83.16%

77.66%

7.08%

5.50%

77.72%

7.00%

51.04%

62.93%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-25

89.51%

80.31%

11.46%

9.20%

74.73%

19.78%

49.48%

80.90%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-25

75.07%

63.92%

17.44%

11.15%

66.49%

12.90%

44.31%

69.42%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-25

80.56%

80.65%

-0.11%

-0.09%

75.86%

6.20%

40.88%

97.06%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-25

311.89%

306.78%

1.67%

5.11%

191.96%

62.48%

220.09%

41.71%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-25

123.63%

132.01%

-6.35%

-8.38%

281.08%

-56.02%

410.68%

-69.90%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-25

EUR 46.57

EUR 44.20

5.36%

EUR 2.37

EUR 40.33

15.47%

EUR 52.12

-10.66%

 

 

NBP

Jan-25

GBP 117.66

GBP 112.01

5.04%

GBP 5.65

GBP 102.08

15.26%

GBP 143.56

-18.04%

 

 

German Base

Jan-25

EUR 113.55

EUR 107.92

5.21%

EUR 5.63

EUR 98.35

15.45%

EUR 138.74

-18.16%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-25

GBP 97.30

GBP 96.71

0.62%

GBP 0.60

GBP 89.67

8.52%

GBP 120.00

-18.91%

 

 

French Base

Jan-25

EUR 108.22

EUR 101.22

6.92%

EUR 7.00

EUR 98.38

10.00%

EUR 158.91

-31.89%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-25

EUR 132.16

EUR 127.75

3.45%

EUR 4.41

EUR 118.40

11.62%

EUR 154.96

-14.72%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-25

$13.73

$13.47

1.95%

$0.26

$13.43

2.29%

$18.00

-23.73%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/14/24

11/13/24

% Change

Change

10/17/24

% Change

11/15/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-25

$46.57

$44.20

5.36%

$2.37

$40.33

15.47%

$52.12

-10.66%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-25

$117.66

$112.01

5.04%

$5.65

$102.08

15.26%

$143.56

-18.04%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-25

$113.55

$107.92

5.21%

$5.63

$98.35

15.45%

$138.74

-18.16%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-25

$97.30

$96.71

0.62%

$0.60

$89.67

8.52%

$120.00

-18.91%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-25

$108.22

$101.22

6.92%

$7.00

$98.38

10.00%

$158.91

-31.89%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$132.16

$127.75

3.45%

$4.41

$118.40

11.62%

$154.96

-14.72%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$13.73

$13.47

1.95%

$0.26

$13.43

2.29%

$18.00

-23.73%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

31

16

19

2,129

231

129

12.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

24

22

22

1,824

282

192

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

35

25

10

2,813

389

-112

16.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

-6

1,428

186

179

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

906

205

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

11

6

6

1,387

186

94

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/09/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

116

-32

-33

661

-184

15

-22.00%

2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

98

-36

-26

499

-197

-56

-28.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E N Central

89

-61

-30

536

-234

-131

-30.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

119

-44

-5

541

-271

-145

-33.00%

-21.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

23

-41

-30

161

-109

-69

-40.00%

-30.00%

 

 

E S Central

17

-69

-38

183

-171

-95

-48.00%

-34.00%

 

 

W S Central

16

-34

-9

57

-97

-96

-63.00%

-63.00%

 

 

Mountain

174

41

73

541

-170

-14

-24.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Pacific

80

4

27

310

-79

26

-20.00%

9.00%

 

 

United States

73

-32

-10

358

-157

-64

-30.00%

-15.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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