Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-16-2023

Nov 16, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:20 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.163

$3.190

-0.85%

-$0.027

33,662

 

 

WTI

$75.60

$76.66

-1.38%

-$1.06

24,830

 

 

Brent

$80.22

$81.18

-1.18%

-$0.96

10,231

 

 

ULSD

$2.846

$2.869

-0.78%

-$0.022

6,912

 

 

RBOB

$2.170

$2.202

-1.45%

-$0.032

4,005

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.43

$4.39

0.91%

$0.04

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.11

$23.33

-0.96%

-$0.22

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.96

$41.18

1.90%

$0.78

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/10/23

616

-2

-163

11/11/22

 

 

Canada

11/10/23

199

3

-1

11/11/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/7/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,161

89,808

89,810

-2

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,232

80,793

80,661

132

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

404,603

381,073

393,381

-12,308

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

304,868

260,456

218,997

41,459

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

122,371

112,223

115,913

-3,690

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,238

31,865

31,361

504

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,982

151,449

151,633

-184

 

 

RBOB

317,875

292,092

301,038

-8,946

 

 

HSC Basis

649,207

642,112

641,953

159

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/02/18

 

 

 

10/27/23

10/20/23

Net Change

% Change

10/28/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

925

908

17

1.87%

848

9.08%

891

3.77%

 

 

Midwest

1,100

1,075

25

2.33%

1,042

5.57%

1,064

3.36%

 

 

Mountain

255

252

3

1.19%

204

25.00%

209

21.89%

 

 

Pacific

285

283

2

0.71%

247

15.38%

276

3.26%

 

 

South

1,214

1,182

32

2.71%

1,160

4.66%

1,153

5.33%

 

 

    Salt

313

299

14

4.68%

299

4.68%

305

2.76%

 

 

    Non_Salt

901

883

18

2.04%

861

4.65%

848

6.25%

 

 

Total

3,779

3,700

79

2.14%

3,501

7.94%

3,594

5.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$48.73

$48.00

1.51%

$0.72

$53.14

-8.31%

$73.35

-33.57%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$47.90

$47.58

0.67%

$0.32

$51.83

-7.59%

$51.16

-6.37%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$88.14

$88.36

-0.26%

-$0.23

$114.18

-22.81%

$87.68

0.52%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$44.89

$43.92

2.20%

$0.97

$50.42

-10.98%

$72.09

-37.73%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$67.92

$64.06

6.04%

$3.87

$87.44

-22.32%

$161.95

-58.06%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$135.54

$130.53

3.84%

$5.01

$145.23

-6.67%

$120.11

12.84%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$58.07

$54.28

6.97%

$3.78

$69.74

-16.74%

$87.84

-33.89%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.190

$3.106

2.70%

$0.08

$3.46

-7.88%

$5.59

-42.90%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.305

-$0.317

-4.09%

$0.01

-$0.24

28.16%

-$0.33

-8.97%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.210

$0.203

-3.24%

$0.01

$0.29

-28.80%

$0.09

123.69%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.666

-$0.685

-2.83%

$0.02

-$0.44

52.32%

-$1.30

-48.64%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.530

$3.409

3.54%

$0.12

$5.74

-38.50%

$13.88

-74.56%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.011

-$1.051

-3.76%

$0.04

-$1.22

-16.96%

-$1.90

-46.63%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$4.449

$4.837

-8.03%

-$0.39

$6.47

-31.18%

$1.69

163.38%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.629

$0.631

-0.40%

$0.00

$0.73

-13.57%

$0.89

-29.11%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.629

$0.636

-1.18%

-$0.01

$0.72

-12.40%

$0.88

-28.53%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.230

$0.224

2.81%

$0.01

$0.28

-18.63%

$0.33

-29.60%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.475

$1.527

-3.42%

-$0.05

$1.61

-8.36%

$1.55

-4.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.867

$0.862

0.58%

$0.00

$0.85

1.60%

$0.99

-11.99%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$7.030

$7.122

-1.30%

-$0.09

$6.49

8.31%

$6.00

17.17%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.080

$6.150

-1.14%

-$0.07

$5.96

2.01%

$5.58

8.93%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$76.79

$78.17

-1.80%

-$1.38

$86.09

-10.80%

$76.82

-0.04%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$81.18

$82.47

-1.59%

-$1.29

$90.22

-10.02%

$82.78

-1.93%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$23.86

-$26.34

-10.40%

$2.48

-$23.06

3.48%

-$22.14

7.76%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$78.49

$80.21

-2.19%

-$1.72

$86.37

-9.12%

$77.65

1.09%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$76.54

$78.32

-2.33%

-$1.79

$83.02

-7.81%

$74.14

3.24%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$76.04

$77.61

-2.06%

-$1.57

$84.31

-9.81%

$73.80

3.03%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$79.18

$80.47

-1.63%

-$1.29

$88.22

-10.25%

$78.31

1.11%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.86

$2.84

0.99%

$0.03

$3.04

-5.79%

$2.88

-0.49%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.20

$2.22

-1.26%

-$0.03

$2.34

-6.03%

$2.26

-2.57%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.10

$2.13

-1.32%

-$0.03

$2.24

-6.30%

$2.15

-2.69%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.79

$2.58

8.19%

$0.21

$2.78

0.43%

$2.58

8.15%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.78

$1.77

0.56%

$0.01

$1.95

-8.65%

$2.03

-12.03%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$770.21

$773.94

-0.48%

-$3.74

$831.47

-7.37%

$785.97

-2.01%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$106.00

$104.61

1.33%

$1.39

$113.48

-6.59%

$103.77

2.15%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

71.05%

75.73%

-6.18%

-4.68%

68.82%

3.24%

63.49%

11.91%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

79.17%

91.56%

-13.53%

-12.39%

97.67%

-18.94%

82.25%

-3.74%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

74.38%

81.57%

-8.81%

-7.19%

71.95%

3.38%

77.07%

-3.49%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

64.04%

70.10%

-8.64%

-6.06%

69.25%

-7.52%

61.67%

3.84%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

76.89%

79.52%

-3.31%

-2.63%

76.81%

0.10%

65.01%

18.27%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

157.43%

102.45%

53.67%

54.98%

118.22%

33.17%

62.68%

151.16%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

348.18%

277.18%

25.62%

71.00%

194.34%

79.16%

29.84%

1066.82%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 48.03

EUR 49.26

-2.50%

-EUR 1.23

EUR 56.12

-14.42%

EUR 115.71

-58.50%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 125.03

GBP 127.30

-1.78%

-GBP 2.26

GBP 148.91

-16.03%

GBP 311.14

-59.82%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 117.72

EUR 114.80

2.55%

EUR 2.92

EUR 139.69

-15.72%

EUR 377.23

-68.79%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 113.37

GBP 114.81

-1.25%

-GBP 1.43

GBP 138.59

-18.19%

GBP 273.41

-58.53%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 125.83

EUR 123.22

2.12%

EUR 2.61

EUR 157.21

-19.96%

EUR 545.54

-76.94%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 140.56

EUR 142.18

-1.14%

-EUR 1.62

EUR 163.92

-14.25%

EUR 331.64

-57.62%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$16.93

$17.35

-2.42%

-$0.42

$18.17

-6.86%

$33.03

-48.75%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/23

11/14/23

% Change

Change

10/18/23

% Change

11/16/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$48.03

$49.26

-2.50%

-$1.23

$56.12

-14.42%

$115.71

-58.50%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$125.03

$127.30

-1.78%

-$2.26

$148.91

-16.03%

$311.14

-59.82%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$117.72

$114.80

2.55%

$2.92

$139.69

-15.72%

$377.23

-68.79%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$113.37

$114.81

-1.25%

-$1.43

$138.59

-18.19%

$273.41

-58.53%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$125.83

$123.22

2.12%

$2.61

$157.21

-19.96%

$545.54

-76.94%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$140.56

$142.18

-1.14%

-$1.62

$163.92

-14.25%

$331.64

-57.62%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$16.93

$17.35

-2.42%

-$0.42

$18.17

-6.86%

$33.03

-48.75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/11/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

-1

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-1

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-2

-16

2,002

102

-108

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

0

-7

1,632

90

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

24

14

-4

2,925

500

38

21.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

4

2

4

1,249

7

-134

1.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-6

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

6

1

-4

1,294

92

-129

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/11/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

155

3

77

695

-195

41

-22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

126

-13

56

596

-141

31

-19.00%

6.00%

 

 

E N Central

127

-29

38

714

-102

26

-12.00%

4.00%

 

 

W N Central

132

-38

-13

737

-126

8

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-20

23

248

-42

-7

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E S Central

47

-43

20

299

-82

-30

-22.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

-26

7

172

2

41

1.00%

31.00%

 

 

Mountain

119

-20

-42

598

-155

-34

-21.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Pacific

68

-12

-54

305

-108

-35

-26.00%

-10.00%

 

 

United States

88

-21

12

454

-94

5

-17.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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