Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-18-2024

Nov 18, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:38 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.893

$2.823

2.48%

$0.070

64,142

 

 

WTI

$68.27

$67.02

1.87%

$1.25

34,845

 

 

Brent

$72.40

$71.04

1.91%

$1.36

14,027

 

 

ULSD

$2.225

$2.171

2.49%

$0.054

12,959

 

 

RBOB

$1.984

$1.949

1.78%

$0.035

10,600

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.16

$4.12

0.97%

$0.04

Jan-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.85

$17.42

2.44%

$0.43

Dec-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$41.08

$39.03

5.26%

$2.05

Dec-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/15/24

584

-1

-34

11/18/23

 

 

Canada

11/15/24

200

-7

4

11/18/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/12/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

84,258

83,781

83,674

107

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

80,655

80,492

79,660

832

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

326,716

314,924

314,186

738

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,961

221,949

222,587

-638

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

149,125

139,516

142,831

-3,315

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,323

29,719

29,557

162

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

143,641

142,830

143,331

-501

 

 

RBOB

379,362

358,651

361,891

-3,240

 

 

HSC Basis

825,557

815,018

815,918

-900

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/08/19

 

 

 

11/8/24

11/1/24

Net Change

% Change

11/10/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

942

934

8

0.86%

931

1.18%

920

2.44%

 

 

Midwest

1,143

1,130

13

1.15%

1,116

2.42%

1,105

3.46%

 

 

Mountain

290

290

0

0.00%

256

13.28%

225

29.00%

 

 

Pacific

312

310

2

0.65%

292

6.85%

281

11.19%

 

 

South

1,286

1,267

19

1.50%

1,238

3.88%

1,232

4.38%

 

 

    Salt

349

341

8

2.35%

332

5.12%

331

5.57%

 

 

    Non_Salt

937

926

11

1.19%

906

3.42%

901

3.95%

 

 

Total

3,974

3,932

42

1.07%

3,833

3.68%

3,762

5.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-24

$47.29

$45.07

4.93%

$2.22

$46.35

2.02%

$54.06

-12.53%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-24

$34.78

$34.07

2.08%

$0.71

$37.15

-6.38%

$48.46

-28.23%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-24

$48.88

$49.55

-1.35%

-$0.67

$62.53

-21.82%

$97.13

-49.67%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-24

$43.59

$40.88

6.63%

$2.71

$42.57

2.41%

$49.71

-12.31%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-24

$72.41

$66.77

8.44%

$5.64

$65.76

10.11%

$112.14

-35.43%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-24

$73.50

$73.50

0.00%

$0.00

$101.91

-27.87%

$127.06

-42.15%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-24

$56.53

$51.76

9.22%

$4.77

$52.37

7.95%

$81.03

-30.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-24

$2.823

$2.766

2.06%

$0.06

$2.77

2.10%

$4.18

-32.54%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-24

-$0.374

-$0.395

-5.34%

$0.02

-$0.44

-15.92%

-$0.20

87.74%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-24

$0.185

$0.202

9.09%

-$0.02

$0.27

-32.78%

$0.23

-19.93%

 

 

Waha

Dec-24

-$1.444

-$1.348

-7.08%

-$0.10

-$1.00

44.58%

-$0.36

301.20%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-24

$3.912

$3.686

6.14%

$0.23

$4.13

-5.25%

$8.19

-52.22%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-24

-$1.548

-$1.621

-4.46%

$0.07

-$1.07

44.18%

-$1.32

16.88%

 

 

Socal

Dec-24

$1.373

$1.485

-7.53%

-$0.11

$2.64

-47.97%

$3.78

-63.71%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-24

$0.776

$0.785

-1.12%

-$0.01

$0.75

3.31%

$0.67

15.07%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-24

$0.780

$0.789

-1.11%

-$0.01

$0.76

2.62%

$0.69

13.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-24

$0.201

$0.197

1.88%

$0.00

$0.21

-4.71%

$0.27

-25.86%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.427

$1.470

-2.95%

-$0.04

$1.46

-2.30%

$1.39

2.65%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-24

$0.992

$1.035

-4.15%

-$0.04

$1.03

-4.01%

$0.85

16.62%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-24

$6.011

$6.135

-2.02%

-$0.12

$6.40

-6.06%

$5.85

2.80%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-24

$6.140

$6.200

-0.97%

-$0.06

$6.16

-0.33%

$5.29

16.14%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-25

$66.92

$68.53

-2.41%

-$1.61

$68.29

-2.01%

$71.00

-5.75%

 

 

Brent

Jan-25

$71.04

$72.56

-2.14%

-$1.52

$72.68

-2.26%

$75.39

-5.77%

 

 

WCS

Jan-25

-$11.86

-$11.92

-0.52%

$0.06

-$13.22

-10.32%

-$15.40

-23.01%

 

 

LLS

Jan-25

$68.56

$70.09

-2.23%

-$1.53

$69.85

-1.86%

$71.62

-4.28%

 

 

Mars

Jan-25

$66.68

$66.61

0.11%

$0.08

$66.75

-0.09%

$68.81

-3.09%

 

 

Sour

Jan-25

$66.96

$68.48

-2.27%

-$1.52

$68.51

-2.26%

$69.39

-3.50%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-25

$69.04

$70.56

-2.20%

-$1.52

$70.68

-2.32%

$73.39

-5.93%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-24

$2.17

$2.21

-1.72%

-$0.04

$2.17

0.18%

$2.49

-12.88%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.99

$1.93

3.00%

$0.06

$1.98

0.66%

$2.01

-1.00%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.89

$1.83

3.17%

$0.06

$1.88

0.69%

$1.91

-1.05%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-24

$2.00

$2.04

-1.77%

-$0.04

$2.00

-0.15%

$2.52

-20.77%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-24

$1.64

$1.62

1.42%

$0.02

$1.51

8.45%

$1.67

-1.91%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-24

$621.73

$630.78

-1.44%

-$9.05

$616.51

0.85%

$681.90

-8.82%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-24

$86.21

$87.65

-1.64%

-$1.44

$85.40

0.96%

$94.63

-8.90%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-25

71.40%

79.86%

-10.59%

-8.46%

68.34%

4.48%

50.75%

40.69%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-25

76.35%

83.16%

-8.19%

-6.81%

75.76%

0.78%

58.24%

31.10%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-25

82.01%

89.51%

-8.38%

-7.50%

74.57%

9.98%

52.86%

55.15%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-25

66.03%

75.07%

-12.04%

-9.04%

67.40%

-2.03%

48.34%

36.59%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-25

82.25%

80.56%

2.10%

1.69%

74.75%

10.03%

40.25%

104.35%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-25

334.30%

311.89%

7.19%

22.41%

199.00%

67.99%

219.48%

52.31%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-25

112.21%

123.63%

-9.24%

-11.42%

275.81%

-59.32%

412.73%

-72.81%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-25

EUR 45.97

EUR 46.57

-1.28%

-EUR 0.60

EUR 40.15

14.48%

EUR 51.41

-10.58%

 

 

NBP

Jan-25

GBP 116.61

GBP 117.66

-0.90%

-GBP 1.06

GBP 101.79

14.55%

GBP 142.04

-17.90%

 

 

German Base

Jan-25

EUR 113.83

EUR 113.55

0.25%

EUR 0.28

EUR 96.47

18.00%

EUR 136.57

-16.65%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-25

GBP 100.89

GBP 97.30

3.68%

GBP 3.58

GBP 91.30

10.50%

GBP 119.10

-15.29%

 

 

French Base

Jan-25

EUR 108.12

EUR 108.22

-0.10%

-EUR 0.11

EUR 94.41

14.52%

EUR 160.75

-32.74%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-25

EUR 131.23

EUR 132.16

-0.70%

-EUR 0.93

EUR 117.94

11.27%

EUR 155.79

-15.76%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-25

$13.58

$13.73

-1.09%

-$0.15

$13.22

2.71%

$17.50

-22.38%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/15/24

11/14/24

% Change

Change

10/18/24

% Change

11/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-25

$45.97

$46.57

-1.28%

-$0.60

$40.15

14.48%

$51.41

-10.58%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-25

$116.61

$117.66

-0.90%

-$1.06

$101.79

14.55%

$142.04

-17.90%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-25

$113.83

$113.55

0.25%

$0.28

$96.47

18.00%

$136.57

-16.65%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-25

$100.89

$97.30

3.68%

$3.58

$91.30

10.50%

$119.10

-15.29%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-25

$108.12

$108.22

-0.10%

-$0.11

$94.41

14.52%

$160.75

-32.74%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$131.23

$132.16

-0.70%

-$0.93

$117.94

11.27%

$155.79

-15.76%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$13.58

$13.73

-1.09%

-$0.15

$13.22

2.71%

$17.50

-22.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

18

5

4

2,147

236

133

12.00%

7.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

1

3

1,827

284

195

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

16

9

14

2,829

398

-99

16.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-1

-3

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

906

204

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

5

1

2

1,393

188

96

16.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/16/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

164

1

-24

825

-182

-9

-18.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

145

-4

-12

644

-201

-68

-24.00%

-9.00%

 

 

E N Central

132

-37

-12

668

-271

-143

-29.00%

-18.00%

 

 

W N Central

136

-52

3

677

-323

-142

-32.00%

-17.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

60

-14

-9

221

-123

-78

-36.00%

-26.00%

 

 

E S Central

58

-41

-13

241

-212

-108

-47.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W S Central

32

-31

-23

90

-127

-119

-59.00%

-57.00%

 

 

Mountain

149

-3

25

690

-173

11

-20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

101

12

30

411

-67

56

-14.00%

16.00%

 

 

United States

103

-17

-3

461

-174

-68

-27.00%

-13.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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