Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-20-2023

Nov 20, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:43 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.005

$2.960

1.52%

$0.045

22,561

 

 

WTI

$74.02

$75.89

-2.46%

-$1.87

11,925

 

 

Brent

$78.70

$80.61

-2.37%

-$1.91

7,424

 

 

ULSD

$2.767

$2.773

-0.19%

-$0.005

3,139

 

 

RBOB

$2.128

$2.184

-2.60%

-$0.057

2,631

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.50

$4.57

-1.53%

-$0.07

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.32

$22.28

0.19%

$0.04

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.23

$40.62

-0.95%

-$0.39

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/17/23

618

2

-164

11/11/22

 

 

Canada

11/17/23

196

-3

-5

11/11/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/16/18

 

 

 

11/10/23

11/3/23

Net Change

% Change

11/11/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

931

924

7

0.76%

882

5.56%

889

4.68%

 

 

Midwest

1,116

1,105

11

1.00%

1,084

2.95%

1,066

4.69%

 

 

Mountain

256

253

3

1.19%

208

23.08%

208

23.08%

 

 

Pacific

292

284

8

2.82%

241

21.16%

274

6.49%

 

 

South

1,238

1,206

32

2.65%

1,228

0.81%

1,162

6.58%

 

 

    Salt

332

313

19

6.07%

327

1.53%

312

6.55%

 

 

    Non_Salt

906

893

13

1.46%

901

0.55%

850

6.61%

 

 

Total

3,833

3,773

60

1.59%

3,644

5.19%

3,599

6.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$46.66

$46.95

-0.63%

-$0.29

$52.32

-10.82%

$79.41

-41.25%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$46.51

$45.56

2.09%

$0.95

$48.34

-3.78%

$49.28

-5.62%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$85.25

$84.05

1.43%

$1.20

$104.06

-18.08%

$88.89

-4.10%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$42.74

$43.17

-1.00%

-$0.43

$49.46

-13.58%

$78.08

-45.26%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$63.15

$68.80

-8.21%

-$5.65

$80.91

-21.95%

$156.98

-59.78%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$134.34

$133.45

0.67%

$0.89

$145.10

-7.41%

$120.28

11.69%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$51.26

$55.36

-7.41%

-$4.10

$60.24

-14.91%

$92.32

-44.48%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$2.960

$3.062

-3.33%

-$0.10

$3.26

-9.15%

$5.64

-47.49%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.256

-$0.282

-9.12%

$0.03

-$0.22

14.22%

-$0.34

-25.54%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.161

$0.199

24.03%

-$0.04

$0.29

-44.83%

$0.10

62.06%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.637

-$0.636

-0.13%

$0.00

-$0.43

47.50%

-$1.31

-51.44%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.394

$3.732

-9.07%

-$0.34

$5.28

-35.71%

$14.18

-76.06%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$0.908

-$1.064

-14.69%

$0.16

-$1.14

-20.08%

-$1.82

-50.06%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$4.157

$4.384

-5.18%

-$0.23

$6.49

-36.00%

$1.72

141.18%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.638

$0.614

3.92%

$0.02

$0.71

-10.18%

$0.87

-26.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.629

$0.624

0.80%

$0.00

$0.70

-10.18%

$0.86

-27.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.215

$0.220

-2.29%

-$0.01

$0.27

-20.43%

$0.33

-35.56%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.461

$1.430

2.14%

$0.03

$1.64

-11.15%

$1.48

-1.45%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.885

$0.868

1.96%

$0.02

$0.85

3.60%

$0.98

-9.38%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.891

$6.849

0.61%

$0.04

$6.60

4.41%

$6.02

14.55%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.050

$6.000

0.85%

$0.05

$5.91

2.38%

$5.61

7.86%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$76.04

$73.09

3.88%

$2.95

$86.82

-12.42%

$74.55

2.00%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$80.61

$77.42

3.96%

$3.19

$90.89

-11.31%

$80.63

-0.02%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$24.47

-$23.99

1.94%

-$0.48

-$23.25

5.21%

-$21.83

12.07%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$78.39

$75.46

3.75%

$2.94

$86.99

-9.88%

$75.83

3.38%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$74.85

$73.07

2.38%

$1.78

$84.12

-11.02%

$71.26

5.04%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$75.47

$72.81

3.53%

$2.66

$86.57

-12.83%

$75.73

-0.34%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$78.61

$75.42

4.06%

$3.19

$88.89

-11.56%

$77.00

2.09%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.77

$2.75

0.58%

$0.02

$3.07

-10.05%

$2.80

-1.39%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.19

$2.17

0.88%

$0.02

$2.35

-7.02%

$2.16

1.11%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.09

$2.07

0.92%

$0.02

$2.25

-7.33%

$2.06

1.16%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.46

$2.66

-7.44%

-$0.20

$2.86

-13.72%

$2.51

-1.91%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.80

$1.81

-0.33%

-$0.01

$1.97

-8.44%

$2.07

-12.83%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$753.22

$739.26

1.89%

$13.96

$850.31

-11.42%

$743.71

1.28%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$104.02

$105.34

-1.25%

-$1.32

$114.93

-9.50%

$99.11

4.95%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

79.53%

80.42%

-1.11%

-0.89%

66.20%

20.14%

66.46%

19.67%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

91.31%

81.57%

11.94%

9.74%

89.32%

2.23%

84.49%

8.07%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

81.35%

81.41%

-0.07%

-0.06%

67.19%

21.07%

79.68%

2.10%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

77.19%

71.31%

8.25%

5.88%

64.53%

19.62%

64.81%

19.10%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

79.83%

76.11%

4.89%

3.72%

77.55%

2.94%

65.37%

22.12%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

113.21%

124.68%

-9.20%

-11.47%

114.80%

-1.39%

57.78%

95.93%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

377.51%

359.73%

4.94%

17.78%

186.69%

102.21%

91.98%

310.43%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 46.24

EUR 47.20

-2.04%

-EUR 0.97

EUR 56.85

-18.67%

EUR 118.34

-60.93%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 119.68

GBP 122.91

-2.63%

-GBP 3.23

GBP 149.75

-20.08%

GBP 316.29

-62.16%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 107.33

EUR 108.94

-1.47%

-EUR 1.60

EUR 138.52

-22.51%

EUR 374.52

-71.34%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 111.90

GBP 110.96

0.85%

GBP 0.94

GBP 137.65

-18.70%

GBP 272.50

-58.94%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 112.92

EUR 118.06

-4.35%

-EUR 5.14

EUR 160.27

-29.55%

EUR 478.74

-76.41%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 135.85

EUR 136.35

-0.36%

-EUR 0.49

EUR 167.18

-18.74%

EUR 349.02

-61.07%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$17.24

$17.15

0.51%

$0.09

$18.39

-6.25%

$29.10

-40.77%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/17/23

11/16/23

% Change

Change

10/20/23

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$46.24

$47.20

-2.04%

-$0.97

$56.85

-18.67%

$118.34

-60.93%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$119.68

$122.91

-2.63%

-$3.23

$149.75

-20.08%

$316.29

-62.16%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$107.33

$108.94

-1.47%

-$1.60

$138.52

-22.51%

$374.52

-71.34%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$111.90

$110.96

0.85%

$0.94

$137.65

-18.70%

$272.50

-58.94%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$112.92

$118.06

-4.35%

-$5.14

$160.27

-29.55%

$478.74

-76.41%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$135.85

$136.35

-0.36%

-$0.49

$167.18

-18.74%

$349.02

-61.07%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$17.24

$17.15

0.51%

$0.09

$18.39

-6.25%

$29.10

-40.77%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/11/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

-1

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

-1

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

-2

-16

2,002

102

-108

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

0

-7

1,632

90

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

24

14

-4

2,925

500

38

21.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

4

2

4

1,249

7

-134

1.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-6

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

6

1

-4

1,294

92

-129

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/11/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

155

3

77

695

-195

41

-22.00%

6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

126

-13

56

596

-141

31

-19.00%

6.00%

 

 

E N Central

127

-29

38

714

-102

26

-12.00%

4.00%

 

 

W N Central

132

-38

-13

737

-126

8

-15.00%

1.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

-20

23

248

-42

-7

-14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E S Central

47

-43

20

299

-82

-30

-22.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

-26

7

172

2

41

1.00%

31.00%

 

 

Mountain

119

-20

-42

598

-155

-34

-21.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Pacific

68

-12

-54

305

-108

-35

-26.00%

-10.00%

 

 

United States

88

-21

12

454

-94

5

-17.00%

1.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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