Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-21-2023

Nov 21, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.902

$2.882

0.69%

$0.020

15,600

 

 

WTI

$77.13

$77.60

-0.61%

-$0.47

76,313

 

 

Brent

$81.60

$82.32

-0.87%

-$0.72

5,861

 

 

ULSD

$2.837

$2.849

-0.45%

-$0.013

3,454

 

 

RBOB

$2.203

$2.226

-1.04%

-$0.023

1,906

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.47

$4.49

-0.45%

-$0.02

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$22.62

$22.72

-0.43%

-$0.10

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.93

$40.49

-3.86%

-$1.56

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/17/23

618

2

-164

11/11/22

 

 

Canada

11/17/23

196

-3

-5

11/11/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/16/18

 

 

 

11/10/23

11/3/23

Net Change

% Change

11/11/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

931

924

7

0.76%

882

5.56%

889

4.68%

 

 

Midwest

1,116

1,105

11

1.00%

1,084

2.95%

1,066

4.69%

 

 

Mountain

256

253

3

1.19%

208

23.08%

208

23.08%

 

 

Pacific

292

284

8

2.82%

241

21.16%

274

6.49%

 

 

South

1,238

1,206

32

2.65%

1,228

0.81%

1,162

6.58%

 

 

    Salt

332

313

19

6.07%

327

1.53%

312

6.55%

 

 

    Non_Salt

906

893

13

1.46%

901

0.55%

850

6.61%

 

 

Total

3,833

3,773

60

1.59%

3,644

5.19%

3,599

6.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$45.14

$46.66

-3.26%

-$1.52

$51.70

-12.69%

$81.92

-44.90%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$43.72

$46.51

-6.00%

-$2.79

$50.47

-13.37%

$50.83

-13.98%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$83.68

$85.25

-1.84%

-$1.57

$108.74

-23.05%

$90.46

-7.50%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$41.33

$42.74

-3.29%

-$1.41

$49.27

-16.11%

$80.57

-48.70%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$63.79

$63.15

1.02%

$0.64

$80.94

-21.19%

$168.22

-62.08%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$128.88

$134.34

-4.07%

-$5.46

$147.79

-12.80%

$120.77

6.71%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$50.78

$51.26

-0.93%

-$0.48

$60.36

-15.87%

$99.15

-48.79%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$2.882

$2.960

-2.64%

-$0.08

$3.27

-11.95%

$5.72

-49.63%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.271

-$0.256

5.85%

-$0.02

-$0.25

7.32%

-$0.05

446.77%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.108

$0.161

48.02%

-$0.05

$0.31

-64.50%

$0.10

5.14%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.691

-$0.637

-8.59%

-$0.05

-$0.44

57.69%

-$1.33

-47.97%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.067

$3.394

-9.61%

-$0.33

$5.44

-43.60%

$14.66

-79.07%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$0.776

-$0.908

-14.50%

$0.13

-$1.12

-30.74%

-$1.69

-54.07%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$3.913

$4.157

-5.86%

-$0.24

$6.24

-37.24%

$1.74

124.79%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.655

$0.638

2.70%

$0.02

$0.67

-2.25%

$0.86

-23.78%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.662

$0.629

5.37%

$0.03

$0.67

-0.96%

$0.86

-22.75%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.209

$0.215

-2.91%

-$0.01

$0.27

-23.28%

$0.33

-36.15%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.510

$1.461

3.37%

$0.05

$1.66

-8.82%

$1.47

2.87%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.908

$0.885

2.63%

$0.02

$0.83

8.86%

$0.98

-7.13%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.945

$6.891

0.78%

$0.05

$6.72

3.35%

$5.87

18.36%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.110

$6.050

0.98%

$0.06

$5.95

2.61%

$5.53

10.49%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$77.83

$76.04

2.30%

$1.79

$84.42

-7.81%

$75.44

3.17%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$82.32

$80.61

2.08%

$1.71

$88.69

-7.18%

$81.28

1.28%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$23.14

-$24.47

-5.73%

$1.33

-$24.39

-5.13%

-$22.44

3.14%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$80.14

$78.39

2.17%

$1.74

$85.32

-6.08%

$77.22

3.77%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$77.71

$74.85

3.68%

$2.86

$82.58

-5.89%

$72.68

6.92%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$77.23

$75.47

2.28%

$1.76

$83.29

-7.28%

$72.54

6.46%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$80.32

$78.61

2.13%

$1.71

$86.69

-7.35%

$76.15

5.48%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.85

$2.77

3.11%

$0.09

$3.02

-5.56%

$2.80

1.79%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.22

$2.19

1.69%

$0.04

$2.33

-4.76%

$2.09

6.26%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.12

$2.09

1.77%

$0.04

$2.23

-4.97%

$1.99

6.58%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.57

$2.46

4.42%

$0.11

$2.80

-8.14%

$2.53

1.78%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.81

$1.80

0.56%

$0.01

$1.94

-6.80%

$2.08

-12.90%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$772.38

$753.22

2.54%

$19.15

$839.79

-8.03%

$720.78

7.16%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$103.75

$104.02

-0.26%

-$0.27

$113.31

-8.44%

$99.14

4.65%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

79.02%

79.53%

-0.64%

-0.51%

67.97%

16.26%

61.55%

28.38%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

98.21%

91.31%

7.56%

6.90%

91.06%

7.85%

78.28%

25.46%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

79.68%

81.35%

-2.05%

-1.67%

69.58%

14.52%

73.09%

9.02%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

75.83%

77.19%

-1.76%

-1.36%

66.44%

14.13%

59.81%

26.78%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

78.87%

79.83%

-1.20%

-0.96%

77.91%

1.23%

65.92%

19.65%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

128.89%

113.21%

13.85%

15.68%

177.01%

-27.18%

57.65%

123.57%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

392.10%

377.51%

3.86%

14.59%

255.66%

53.37%

98.64%

297.51%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 46.92

EUR 46.24

1.48%

EUR 0.68

EUR 57.50

-18.41%

EUR 123.50

-62.01%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 122.07

GBP 119.68

2.00%

GBP 2.39

GBP 153.25

-20.34%

GBP 327.45

-62.72%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 109.95

EUR 107.33

2.44%

EUR 2.62

EUR 136.03

-19.17%

EUR 377.46

-70.87%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 110.69

GBP 111.90

-1.08%

-GBP 1.21

GBP 137.43

-19.45%

GBP 279.29

-60.37%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 116.16

EUR 112.92

2.87%

EUR 3.24

EUR 157.70

-26.34%

EUR 507.18

-77.10%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 135.20

EUR 135.85

-0.48%

-EUR 0.66

EUR 168.99

-20.00%

EUR 354.50

-61.86%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$17.72

$17.24

2.82%

$0.49

$18.93

-6.40%

$28.76

-38.38%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/20/23

11/17/23

% Change

Change

10/23/23

% Change

11/21/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$46.92

$46.24

1.48%

$0.68

$57.50

-18.41%

$123.50

-62.01%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$122.07

$119.68

2.00%

$2.39

$153.25

-20.34%

$327.45

-62.72%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$109.95

$107.33

2.44%

$2.62

$136.03

-19.17%

$377.46

-70.87%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$110.69

$111.90

-1.08%

-$1.21

$137.43

-19.45%

$279.29

-60.37%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$116.16

$112.92

2.87%

$3.24

$157.70

-26.34%

$507.18

-77.10%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$135.20

$135.85

-0.48%

-$0.66

$168.99

-20.00%

$354.50

-61.86%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$17.72

$17.24

2.82%

$0.49

$18.93

-6.40%

$28.76

-38.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/18/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

0

1

2,016

103

-107

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

89

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

5

-2

5

2,931

499

43

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

4

3

4

1,253

10

-131

1.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-7

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

3

0

1

1,297

92

-128

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/18/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

177

10

10

872

-185

52

-18.00%

6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

155

2

-13

750

-141

18

-16.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

142

-33

-91

856

-135

-65

-14.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

127

-68

-146

864

-194

-138

-18.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

63

-15

-39

311

-57

-46

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

E S Central

67

-37

-112

366

-118

-142

-24.00%

-28.00%

 

 

W S Central

49

-19

-98

221

-17

-57

-7.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Mountain

114

-44

-106

712

-198

-140

-22.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Pacific

75

-17

-44

380

-125

-79

-25.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

103

-21

-65

557

-115

-60

-17.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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