Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-22-2023

Nov 22, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:04 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.880

$2.846

1.19%

$0.034

10,821

 

 

WTI

$74.58

$77.77

-4.10%

-$3.19

155,331

 

 

Brent

$79.13

$82.45

-4.03%

-$3.32

15,661

 

 

ULSD

$2.836

$2.925

-3.05%

-$0.089

3,110

 

 

RBOB

$2.169

$2.234

-2.89%

-$0.064

2,040

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.54

$4.68

-2.99%

-$0.14

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.10

$23.98

0.48%

$0.11

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.17

$39.05

0.31%

$0.12

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/17/23

618

2

-164

11/11/22

 

 

Canada

11/17/23

196

-3

-5

11/11/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/16/18

 

 

 

11/10/23

11/3/23

Net Change

% Change

11/11/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

931

924

7

0.76%

882

5.56%

889

4.68%

 

 

Midwest

1,116

1,105

11

1.00%

1,084

2.95%

1,066

4.69%

 

 

Mountain

256

253

3

1.19%

208

23.08%

208

23.08%

 

 

Pacific

292

284

8

2.82%

241

21.16%

274

6.49%

 

 

South

1,238

1,206

32

2.65%

1,228

0.81%

1,162

6.58%

 

 

    Salt

332

313

19

6.07%

327

1.53%

312

6.55%

 

 

    Non_Salt

906

893

13

1.46%

901

0.55%

850

6.61%

 

 

Total

3,833

3,773

60

1.59%

3,644

5.19%

3,599

6.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$45.33

$45.14

0.42%

$0.19

$51.81

-12.52%

$84.20

-46.17%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$44.70

$43.72

2.25%

$0.98

$51.82

-13.73%

$49.98

-10.56%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$79.89

$83.68

-4.53%

-$3.79

$105.71

-24.43%

$87.28

-8.47%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$41.86

$41.33

1.28%

$0.53

$49.38

-15.23%

$82.86

-49.48%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$62.30

$63.79

-2.33%

-$1.49

$81.66

-23.71%

$169.81

-63.31%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$128.44

$128.88

-0.34%

-$0.44

$142.80

-10.06%

$118.16

8.70%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$50.60

$50.78

-0.35%

-$0.18

$61.45

-17.65%

$101.28

-50.04%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$2.846

$2.882

-1.25%

-$0.04

$3.32

-14.33%

$5.74

-50.46%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.260

-$0.271

-3.98%

$0.01

-$0.25

4.92%

-$0.34

-24.52%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.110

$0.108

-1.00%

$0.00

$0.32

-66.00%

$0.10

9.71%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.674

-$0.691

-2.50%

$0.02

-$0.44

51.46%

-$1.30

-48.06%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.274

$3.067

6.73%

$0.21

$5.49

-40.37%

$14.77

-77.83%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$0.809

-$0.776

4.25%

-$0.03

-$1.11

-26.84%

-$1.71

-52.62%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$3.719

$3.913

-4.96%

-$0.19

$6.58

-43.45%

$1.74

114.10%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.648

$0.655

-1.13%

-$0.01

$0.66

-2.05%

$0.86

-24.97%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.648

$0.662

-2.24%

-$0.01

$0.66

-1.87%

$0.88

-26.61%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.206

$0.209

-1.39%

$0.00

$0.27

-22.38%

$0.32

-35.27%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.493

$1.510

-1.16%

-$0.02

$1.55

-3.74%

$1.50

-0.36%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.888

$0.908

-2.23%

-$0.02

$0.82

8.71%

$0.96

-7.88%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.880

$6.945

-0.94%

-$0.07

$6.60

4.22%

$5.93

16.02%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.014

$6.110

-1.57%

-$0.10

$5.90

2.02%

$5.52

8.88%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$77.77

$77.83

-0.08%

-$0.06

$82.97

-6.27%

$75.73

2.69%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$82.45

$82.32

0.16%

$0.13

$87.16

-5.40%

$81.56

1.09%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$23.78

-$23.14

2.69%

-$0.64

-$22.16

7.29%

-$23.52

1.10%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$80.50

$80.14

0.45%

$0.36

$83.75

-3.88%

$78.21

2.93%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$77.07

$77.71

-0.83%

-$0.64

$80.31

-4.04%

$73.10

5.43%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$77.66

$77.23

0.55%

$0.43

$80.77

-3.85%

$72.23

7.52%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$80.45

$80.32

0.16%

$0.13

$85.16

-5.53%

$80.33

0.15%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.94

$2.85

2.98%

$0.09

$3.01

-2.39%

$2.85

3.20%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.20

$2.22

-0.85%

-$0.02

$2.25

-2.09%

$2.24

-1.43%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.10

$2.12

-0.89%

-$0.02

$2.15

-2.19%

$2.14

-1.50%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.62

$2.57

1.86%

$0.05

$2.68

-2.20%

$2.53

3.84%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.80

$1.81

-0.55%

-$0.01

$1.92

-6.40%

$2.08

-13.54%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$778.08

$772.38

0.74%

$5.70

$802.04

-2.99%

$781.26

-0.41%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$106.85

$103.75

2.99%

$3.10

$109.87

-2.75%

$101.39

5.39%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

78.92%

79.02%

-0.13%

-0.10%

69.14%

14.15%

60.68%

30.06%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

94.11%

98.21%

-4.17%

-4.10%

91.02%

3.39%

79.16%

18.89%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

81.47%

79.68%

2.25%

1.79%

70.19%

16.07%

75.51%

7.89%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

76.88%

75.83%

1.38%

1.05%

67.28%

14.27%

59.09%

30.11%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

77.00%

78.87%

-2.37%

-1.87%

75.56%

1.91%

67.62%

13.87%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

152.39%

128.89%

18.23%

23.50%

110.88%

37.44%

57.34%

165.77%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

395.17%

392.10%

0.78%

3.07%

195.03%

102.62%

93.71%

321.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 44.92

EUR 46.92

-4.26%

-EUR 2.00

EUR 54.42

-17.46%

EUR 130.50

-65.58%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 115.96

GBP 122.07

-5.01%

-GBP 6.11

GBP 144.25

-19.61%

GBP 347.72

-66.65%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 105.69

EUR 109.95

-3.88%

-EUR 4.26

EUR 132.87

-20.46%

EUR 393.03

-73.11%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 108.08

GBP 110.69

-2.36%

-GBP 2.61

GBP 130.21

-16.99%

GBP 293.55

-63.18%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 108.90

EUR 116.16

-6.25%

-EUR 7.26

EUR 151.84

-28.28%

EUR 541.01

-79.87%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 131.78

EUR 135.20

-2.53%

-EUR 3.42

EUR 163.88

-19.59%

EUR 374.11

-64.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$16.35

$17.72

-7.74%

-$1.37

$17.59

-7.05%

$33.29

-50.89%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/21/23

11/20/23

% Change

Change

10/24/23

% Change

11/22/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$44.92

$46.92

-4.26%

-$2.00

$54.42

-17.46%

$130.50

-65.58%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$115.96

$122.07

-5.01%

-$6.11

$144.25

-19.61%

$347.72

-66.65%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$105.69

$109.95

-3.88%

-$4.26

$132.87

-20.46%

$393.03

-73.11%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$108.08

$110.69

-2.36%

-$2.61

$130.21

-16.99%

$293.55

-63.18%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$108.90

$116.16

-6.25%

-$7.26

$151.84

-28.28%

$541.01

-79.87%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$131.78

$135.20

-2.53%

-$3.42

$163.88

-19.59%

$374.11

-64.78%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$16.35

$17.72

-7.74%

-$1.37

$17.59

-7.05%

$33.29

-50.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/18/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

13

0

1

2,016

103

-107

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

89

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

5

-2

5

2,931

499

43

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

4

3

4

1,253

10

-131

1.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-7

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

3

0

1

1,297

92

-128

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/18/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

177

10

10

872

-185

52

-18.00%

6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

155

2

-13

750

-141

18

-16.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

142

-33

-91

856

-135

-65

-14.00%

-7.00%

 

 

W N Central

127

-68

-146

864

-194

-138

-18.00%

-14.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

63

-15

-39

311

-57

-46

-15.00%

-13.00%

 

 

E S Central

67

-37

-112

366

-118

-142

-24.00%

-28.00%

 

 

W S Central

49

-19

-98

221

-17

-57

-7.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Mountain

114

-44

-106

712

-198

-140

-22.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Pacific

75

-17

-44

380

-125

-79

-25.00%

-17.00%

 

 

United States

103

-21

-65

557

-115

-60

-17.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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