Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-25-2024

Nov 25, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:12 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.316

$3.129

5.98%

$0.187

11,080

 

 

WTI

$71.10

$71.24

-0.20%

-$0.14

61,317

 

 

Brent

$75.08

$75.17

-0.12%

-$0.09

5,642

 

 

ULSD

$2.277

$2.275

0.07%

$0.002

1,981

 

 

RBOB

$2.050

$2.061

-0.54%

-$0.011

636

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.02

$3.93

2.29%

$0.09

Jan-25

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.08

$17.16

-0.49%

-$0.08

Jan-25

 

 

PJM West Spark

$46.07

$49.63

-7.17%

-$3.56

Dec-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/22/24

583

-1

-39

11/23/23

 

 

Canada

11/22/24

201

1

4

11/23/23

 

 

International

Oct

950

3

-12

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/19/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,366

85,863

85,759

104

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,966

82,786

81,882

904

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

334,339

322,547

321,809

738

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

147,249

123,039

120,452

2,587

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

159,456

150,760

153,927

-3,167

 

 

NYM Ethanol

34,894

34,079

34,383

-304

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

144,721

143,705

144,281

-576

 

 

RBOB

365,715

342,232

347,861

-5,629

 

 

HSC Basis

830,969

822,612

820,113

2,499

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/15/19

 

 

 

11/15/24

11/8/24

Net Change

% Change

11/17/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

931

942

-11

-1.17%

918

1.42%

903

3.08%

 

 

Midwest

1,140

1,143

-3

-0.26%

1,118

1.97%

1,090

4.61%

 

 

Mountain

293

290

3

1.03%

255

14.90%

223

31.39%

 

 

Pacific

313

312

1

0.32%

296

5.74%

280

11.63%

 

 

South

1,291

1,286

5

0.39%

1,240

4.11%

1,223

5.59%

 

 

    Salt

347

349

-2

-0.57%

331

4.83%

328

5.66%

 

 

    Non_Salt

944

937

7

0.75%

909

3.85%

894

5.59%

 

 

Total

3,969

3,974

-5

-0.13%

3,826

3.74%

3,718

6.75%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-24

$53.20

$56.32

-5.54%

-$3.12

$49.84

6.75%

$54.24

-1.90%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-24

$38.37

$47.95

-19.99%

-$9.58

$35.75

7.32%

$47.33

-18.94%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-24

$46.75

$56.00

-16.52%

-$9.25

$57.99

-19.38%

$93.52

-50.01%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-24

$48.14

$51.08

-5.75%

-$2.94

$45.04

6.89%

$49.49

-2.72%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-24

$85.77

$89.50

-4.16%

-$3.73

$75.38

13.79%

$107.39

-20.13%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-24

$73.75

$80.25

-8.09%

-$6.50

$89.76

-17.84%

$124.44

-40.73%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-24

$67.81

$71.05

-4.56%

-$3.24

$57.39

18.16%

$75.92

-10.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-24

$3.129

$3.339

-6.29%

-$0.21

$3.06

2.25%

$4.04

-22.53%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-24

-$0.207

-$0.325

-36.27%

$0.12

-$0.43

-51.96%

-$0.21

0.88%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-24

$0.486

$0.426

-12.37%

$0.06

$0.29

68.21%

$0.18

166.19%

 

 

Waha

Dec-24

-$0.696

-$1.087

-35.99%

$0.39

-$1.38

-49.68%

-$0.41

70.21%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-24

$5.461

$5.737

-4.82%

-$0.28

$4.24

28.85%

$7.62

-28.30%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-24

-$1.751

-$1.788

-2.03%

$0.04

-$1.41

24.55%

-$1.15

52.37%

 

 

Socal

Dec-24

$1.385

$1.548

-10.58%

-$0.16

$2.21

-37.42%

$3.18

-56.45%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-24

$0.831

$0.820

1.36%

$0.01

$0.81

2.36%

$0.70

19.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-24

$0.832

$0.822

1.21%

$0.01

$0.82

0.97%

$0.70

19.70%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-24

$0.213

$0.227

-6.18%

-$0.01

$0.20

5.24%

$0.27

-20.61%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.515

$1.485

2.01%

$0.03

$1.51

0.22%

$1.42

6.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-24

$1.074

$1.045

2.73%

$0.03

$1.08

-0.28%

$0.89

21.27%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-24

$6.300

$6.290

0.16%

$0.01

$6.47

-2.68%

$5.95

5.82%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-24

$6.350

$6.310

0.62%

$0.04

$6.22

2.08%

$5.28

20.35%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-25

$71.24

$70.10

1.60%

$1.14

$71.35

-0.15%

$73.01

-2.42%

 

 

Brent

Jan-25

$75.17

$74.23

1.25%

$0.94

$75.63

-0.61%

$77.60

-3.13%

 

 

WCS

Jan-25

-$12.35

-$12.04

2.49%

-$0.31

-$12.37

-0.19%

-$14.85

-16.81%

 

 

LLS

Jan-25

$72.72

$71.90

1.13%

$0.82

$72.47

0.35%

$74.42

-2.28%

 

 

Mars

Jan-25

$69.62

$68.79

1.20%

$0.84

$69.68

-0.08%

$70.79

-1.64%

 

 

Sour

Jan-25

$71.24

$70.31

1.31%

$0.93

$71.33

-0.12%

$72.15

-1.26%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-25

$73.17

$72.23

1.28%

$0.94

$73.63

-0.62%

$75.60

-3.21%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-24

$2.29

$2.26

1.15%

$0.03

$2.25

1.51%

$2.58

-11.37%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.99

$2.02

-1.49%

-$0.03

$2.00

-0.40%

$2.08

-4.10%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-24

$1.89

$1.92

-1.56%

-$0.03

$1.90

-0.42%

$1.98

-4.30%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-24

$2.10

$2.07

1.64%

$0.03

$2.04

3.39%

$2.37

-11.04%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-24

$1.60

$1.60

-0.37%

-$0.01

$1.53

4.04%

$1.70

-5.78%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-24

$649.98

$645.50

0.69%

$4.48

$632.75

2.72%

$715.90

-9.21%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-24

$91.14

$89.80

1.49%

$1.34

$87.17

4.55%

$98.32

-7.31%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-25

82.11%

81.48%

0.77%

0.63%

68.23%

20.34%

47.44%

73.08%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-25

90.49%

88.43%

2.33%

2.06%

73.30%

23.45%

62.09%

45.74%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-25

91.70%

101.10%

-9.30%

-9.40%

83.38%

9.98%

47.61%

92.61%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-25

78.72%

79.60%

-1.11%

-0.88%

66.69%

18.04%

46.31%

69.98%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-25

90.37%

87.83%

2.89%

2.54%

77.64%

16.40%

43.00%

110.16%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-25

345.59%

358.96%

-3.72%

-13.37%

227.20%

52.11%

272.81%

26.68%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-25

130.44%

121.00%

7.80%

9.44%

253.36%

-48.52%

434.90%

-70.01%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-25

EUR 47.40

EUR 49.07

-3.41%

-EUR 1.67

EUR 43.99

7.74%

EUR 50.64

-6.39%

 

 

NBP

Jan-25

GBP 119.02

GBP 123.27

-3.45%

-GBP 4.26

GBP 112.23

6.05%

GBP 135.87

-12.40%

 

 

German Base

Jan-25

EUR 121.01

EUR 124.20

-2.57%

-EUR 3.19

EUR 103.19

17.27%

EUR 135.08

-10.42%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-25

GBP 106.30

GBP 102.60

3.60%

GBP 3.69

GBP 98.23

8.21%

GBP 119.78

-11.25%

 

 

French Base

Jan-25

EUR 112.03

EUR 112.03

0.00%

EUR 0.00

EUR 96.20

16.45%

EUR 155.15

-27.79%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-25

EUR 136.69

EUR 138.80

-1.52%

-EUR 2.11

EUR 125.43

8.98%

EUR 148.78

-8.13%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-25

$15.13

$14.75

2.58%

$0.38

$13.92

8.63%

$18.08

-16.32%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/22/24

11/21/24

% Change

Change

10/25/24

% Change

11/24/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-25

$47.40

$49.07

-3.41%

-$1.67

$43.99

7.74%

$50.64

-6.39%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-25

$119.02

$123.27

-3.45%

-$4.26

$112.23

6.05%

$135.87

-12.40%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-25

$121.01

$124.20

-2.57%

-$3.19

$103.19

17.27%

$135.08

-10.42%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-25

$106.30

$102.60

3.60%

$3.69

$98.23

8.21%

$119.78

-11.25%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-25

$112.03

$112.03

0.00%

$0.00

$96.20

16.45%

$155.15

-27.79%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$136.69

$138.80

-1.52%

-$2.11

$125.43

8.98%

$148.78

-8.13%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-25

$15.13

$14.75

2.58%

$0.38

$13.92

8.63%

$18.08

-16.32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

772

116

74

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

782

73

118

10.00%

18.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

998

71

-59

8.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

8

-3

-4

2,155

233

130

12.00%

6.00%

 

 

E S Central

1

0

1

1,827

283

196

18.00%

12.00%

 

 

W S Central

11

6

4

2,840

404

-93

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

-1

1,428

185

175

15.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

906

203

211

29.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

3

0

0

1,395

187

96

15.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/23/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

146

-33

-36

971

-216

-45

-18.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

146

-19

-14

790

-220

-82

-22.00%

-9.00%

 

 

E N Central

144

-45

-26

812

-316

-169

-28.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W N Central

165

-47

-13

843

-369

-154

-30.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

78

-8

10

299

-132

-68

-31.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E S Central

92

-22

-3

333

-234

-112

-41.00%

-25.00%

 

 

W S Central

54

-24

-14

143

-152

-134

-52.00%

-48.00%

 

 

Mountain

169

-1

21

859

-175

33

-17.00%

4.00%

 

 

Pacific

112

11

27

524

-55

83

-9.00%

19.00%

 

 

United States

117

-19

-3

578

-193

-71

-25.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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