Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-27-2023

Nov 27, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:55 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.759

$2.855

-3.36%

-$0.096

12,750

 

 

WTI

$74.85

$75.54

-0.91%

-$0.69

88,661

 

 

Brent

$79.88

$80.58

-0.87%

-$0.70

4,120

 

 

ULSD

$2.847

$2.836

0.38%

$0.011

1,719

 

 

RBOB

$2.170

$2.165

0.22%

$0.005

1,148

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.04

$5.04

0.00%

$0.00

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.86

$22.96

3.93%

$0.90

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.05

$35.42

7.42%

$2.63

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/22/23

622

4

-162

11/23/22

 

 

Canada

11/22/23

197

1

3

11/23/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/23/18

 

 

 

11/17/23

11/10/23

Net Change

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

918

931

-13

-1.40%

866

6.00%

872

5.25%

 

 

Midwest

1,118

1,116

2

0.18%

1,063

5.17%

1,050

6.44%

 

 

Mountain

255

256

-1

-0.39%

203

25.62%

206

23.79%

 

 

Pacific

296

292

4

1.37%

232

27.59%

272

8.74%

 

 

South

1,240

1,238

2

0.16%

1,200

3.33%

1,158

7.10%

 

 

    Salt

331

332

-1

-0.30%

318

4.09%

315

5.15%

 

 

    Non_Salt

909

906

3

0.33%

882

3.06%

843

7.85%

 

 

Total

3,826

3,833

-7

-0.18%

3,564

7.35%

3,558

7.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$43.96

$41.53

5.86%

$2.44

$53.49

-17.81%

$84.13

-47.74%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$41.62

$45.92

-9.36%

-$4.30

$54.88

-24.16%

$50.54

-17.64%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$70.76

$79.00

-10.43%

-$8.24

$107.33

-34.07%

$90.19

-21.54%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$40.69

$38.16

6.62%

$2.53

$50.44

-19.34%

$82.81

-50.87%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$60.33

$63.54

-5.06%

-$3.21

$75.42

-20.01%

$174.98

-65.52%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$114.32

$124.38

-8.08%

-$10.05

$152.73

-25.15%

$127.28

-10.18%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$49.23

$51.00

-3.47%

-$1.77

$57.88

-14.94%

$107.84

-54.35%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$2.855

$2.897

-1.45%

-$0.04

$3.48

-17.89%

$5.95

-52.03%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.215

-$0.240

-10.17%

$0.02

-$0.26

-16.92%

-$0.32

-33.45%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.052

$0.061

16.76%

-$0.01

$0.33

-84.19%

$0.10

-46.77%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.533

-$0.568

-6.09%

$0.03

-$0.50

6.21%

-$1.30

-58.89%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$3.480

$3.134

11.02%

$0.35

$5.39

-35.49%

$14.53

-76.06%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$0.839

-$0.733

14.55%

-$0.11

-$1.13

-25.85%

-$1.79

-52.98%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$2.567

$3.081

-16.70%

-$0.51

$6.41

-59.96%

$1.94

32.63%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.645

$0.643

0.45%

$0.00

$0.65

-1.45%

$0.86

-25.32%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.647

$0.630

2.75%

$0.02

$0.66

-1.33%

$0.86

-25.07%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.213

$0.209

2.24%

$0.00

$0.26

-18.74%

$0.33

-34.88%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.457

$1.438

1.33%

$0.02

$1.56

-6.86%

$1.50

-2.69%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.900

$0.870

3.38%

$0.03

$0.83

8.22%

$0.96

-6.45%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.845

$6.764

1.19%

$0.08

$6.76

1.20%

$5.93

15.44%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$6.000

$5.899

1.71%

$0.10

$5.86

2.32%

$5.48

9.51%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$75.54

$77.10

-2.07%

-$1.56

$82.54

-8.48%

$73.81

2.34%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$80.58

$81.96

-1.71%

-$1.38

$87.05

-7.43%

$79.57

1.27%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$22.03

-$25.23

-14.50%

$3.19

-$25.10

-12.20%

-$23.99

-8.16%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$78.03

$79.52

-1.90%

-$1.49

$84.52

-7.67%

$76.96

1.39%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$75.54

$76.61

-1.40%

-$1.06

$81.00

-6.74%

$72.44

4.28%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$75.03

$76.58

-2.07%

-$1.56

$81.35

-7.77%

$73.86

1.58%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$78.58

$79.96

-1.76%

-$1.38

$85.05

-7.61%

$79.93

-1.68%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.89

$2.89

0.17%

$0.00

$2.96

-2.43%

$2.80

3.21%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.18

$2.23

-2.02%

-$0.04

$2.25

-2.89%

$2.15

1.39%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.08

$2.13

-2.11%

-$0.05

$2.15

-3.03%

$2.05

1.46%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.57

$2.47

3.76%

$0.09

$2.77

-7.26%

$2.49

3.22%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.82

$1.79

1.39%

$0.03

$1.88

-3.29%

$2.06

-11.56%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$780.44

$767.60

1.67%

$12.84

$807.31

-3.33%

$746.00

4.62%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$106.22

$105.90

0.31%

$0.32

$110.18

-3.59%

$99.17

7.11%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

71.76%

77.98%

-7.98%

-6.22%

61.79%

16.14%

65.46%

9.62%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

86.07%

91.48%

-5.91%

-5.41%

79.56%

8.18%

88.69%

-2.95%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

74.24%

80.48%

-7.75%

-6.24%

60.19%

23.34%

80.13%

-7.35%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

69.77%

76.78%

-9.13%

-7.01%

61.52%

13.41%

63.21%

10.38%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

78.61%

75.93%

3.53%

2.68%

77.58%

1.33%

79.25%

-0.81%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

155.83%

157.04%

-0.77%

-1.21%

151.60%

2.79%

58.68%

165.56%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

464.21%

439.77%

5.56%

24.44%

210.59%

120.43%

114.42%

305.71%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 46.70

EUR 46.10

1.30%

EUR 0.60

EUR 54.80

-14.78%

EUR 131.82

-64.57%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 121.02

GBP 118.85

1.82%

GBP 2.16

GBP 144.99

-16.53%

GBP 342.96

-64.71%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 107.63

EUR 106.18

1.36%

EUR 1.45

EUR 127.77

-15.76%

EUR 385.69

-72.09%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 111.49

GBP 107.82

3.40%

GBP 3.66

GBP 131.82

-15.43%

GBP 294.55

-62.15%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 115.67

EUR 113.02

2.34%

EUR 2.65

EUR 144.81

-20.12%

EUR 537.98

-78.50%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 133.21

EUR 131.94

0.96%

EUR 1.26

EUR 161.29

-17.41%

EUR 350.56

-62.00%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$17.55

$17.35

1.18%

$0.20

$17.60

-0.28%

$33.28

-47.27%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/24/23

11/22/23

% Change

Change

10/26/23

% Change

11/25/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$46.70

$46.10

1.30%

$0.60

$54.80

-14.78%

$131.82

-64.57%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$121.02

$118.85

1.82%

$2.16

$144.99

-16.53%

$342.96

-64.71%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$107.63

$106.18

1.36%

$1.45

$127.77

-15.76%

$385.69

-72.09%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$111.49

$107.82

3.40%

$3.66

$131.82

-15.43%

$294.55

-62.15%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$115.67

$113.02

2.34%

$2.65

$144.81

-20.12%

$537.98

-78.50%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$133.21

$131.94

0.96%

$1.26

$161.29

-17.41%

$350.56

-62.00%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$17.55

$17.35

1.18%

$0.20

$17.60

-0.28%

$33.28

-47.27%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

10

-1

-1

2,026

102

-107

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

88

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

-2

3

2,933

497

46

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-131

1.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-8

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

1,300

92

-128

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

204

20

-14

1,076

-165

38

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

176

6

-26

926

-135

-7

-13.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E N Central

194

-1

-28

1,049

-137

-92

-12.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

211

-8

-14

1,075

-202

-152

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

86

-3

-22

397

-60

-68

-13.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

116

-2

-37

482

-120

-179

-20.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

5

-36

307

-12

-93

-4.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Mountain

174

-1

-22

886

-199

-162

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Pacific

96

-8

-1

476

-134

-80

-22.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

140

0

-22

697

-116

-81

-14.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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