Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-29-2023

Nov 29, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:53 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.825

$2.706

4.40%

$0.119

24,268

 

 

WTI

$77.60

$76.41

1.56%

$1.19

73,348

 

 

Brent

$82.73

$81.68

1.29%

$1.05

2,599

 

 

ULSD

$2.896

$2.907

-0.39%

-$0.011

1,396

 

 

RBOB

$2.255

$2.230

1.12%

$0.025

952

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.13

$5.27

-2.66%

-$0.14

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.80

$24.41

-2.53%

-$0.62

Jan-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

11/22/23

622

4

-162

11/23/22

 

 

Canada

11/22/23

197

1

3

11/23/22

 

 

International

Oct

962

22

51

Oct

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 11/14/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

90,618

90,259

90,266

-7

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,857

81,424

81,266

158

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

405,693

382,163

393,011

-10,848

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

312,109

267,975

229,366

38,609

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,852

120,440

123,789

-3,349

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,425

31,919

31,587

332

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

153,502

152,988

153,141

-153

 

 

RBOB

328,716

303,888

313,047

-9,159

 

 

HSC Basis

657,514

650,471

650,073

398

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

11/23/18

 

 

 

11/17/23

11/10/23

Net Change

% Change

11/18/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

918

931

-13

-1.40%

866

6.00%

872

5.25%

 

 

Midwest

1,118

1,116

2

0.18%

1,063

5.17%

1,050

6.44%

 

 

Mountain

255

256

-1

-0.39%

203

25.62%

206

23.79%

 

 

Pacific

296

292

4

1.37%

232

27.59%

272

8.74%

 

 

South

1,240

1,238

2

0.16%

1,200

3.33%

1,158

7.10%

 

 

    Salt

331

332

-1

-0.30%

318

4.09%

315

5.15%

 

 

    Non_Salt

909

906

3

0.33%

882

3.06%

843

7.85%

 

 

Total

3,826

3,833

-7

-0.18%

3,564

7.35%

3,558

7.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$44.47

$44.88

-0.90%

-$0.40

$50.22

-11.46%

$83.73

-46.89%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$37.63

$37.64

-0.03%

-$0.01

$49.09

-23.36%

$52.09

-27.77%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$68.16

$71.12

-4.17%

-$2.96

$95.81

-28.86%

$94.14

-27.60%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$40.40

$40.65

-0.60%

-$0.25

$47.70

-15.29%

$82.41

-50.97%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$65.34

$61.90

5.55%

$3.44

$80.95

-19.29%

$171.90

-61.99%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$110.59

$120.34

-8.10%

-$9.75

$138.76

-20.30%

$132.54

-16.56%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$52.20

$50.37

3.62%

$1.83

$62.31

-16.23%

$105.83

-50.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Jan-24

$2.837

$2.946

-3.70%

-$0.11

$3.59

-20.95%

$6.26

-54.72%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Jan-24

$0.331

$0.326

1.53%

$0.00

$0.41

-19.65%

-$0.01

-5910.53%

 

 

Chicago

Jan-24

$0.527

$0.559

6.15%

-$0.03

$0.91

-41.90%

$0.78

-32.69%

 

 

Waha

Jan-24

-$0.007

$0.034

119.64%

-$0.04

$0.34

-101.97%

-$0.67

-99.02%

 

 

Algonquin

Jan-24

$10.058

$9.309

8.06%

$0.75

$11.00

-8.52%

$23.27

-56.78%

 

 

Aeco

Jan-24

-$0.961

-$0.914

5.13%

-$0.05

-$1.32

-26.98%

-$1.85

-48.06%

 

 

Socal

Jan-24

$2.581

$2.671

-3.36%

-$0.09

$5.41

-52.30%

$1.54

67.43%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.640

$0.633

1.19%

$0.01

$0.66

-3.20%

$0.84

-24.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.646

$0.638

1.37%

$0.01

$0.66

-2.08%

$0.85

-24.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.210

$0.207

1.29%

$0.00

$0.26

-18.44%

$0.31

-32.28%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.455

$1.443

0.87%

$0.01

$1.56

-6.58%

$1.45

0.02%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.881

$0.858

2.77%

$0.02

$0.84

4.45%

$0.93

-5.42%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$6.800

$6.781

0.29%

$0.02

$6.73

1.06%

$5.81

17.05%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$5.980

$5.950

0.50%

$0.03

$5.89

1.54%

$5.48

9.22%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Jan-24

$76.41

$74.86

2.03%

$1.55

$81.68

-6.45%

$75.22

1.58%

 

 

Brent

Jan-24

$81.68

$79.98

2.08%

$1.70

$86.35

-5.41%

$80.70

1.21%

 

 

WCS

Jan-24

-$25.07

-$27.80

-10.90%

$2.73

-$25.12

-0.23%

-$23.04

8.78%

 

 

LLS

Jan-24

$79.17

$77.80

1.72%

$1.36

$83.18

-4.83%

$77.36

2.33%

 

 

Mars

Jan-24

$77.18

$74.75

3.16%

$2.44

$80.47

-4.08%

$71.82

7.47%

 

 

Sour

Jan-24

$76.37

$74.66

2.25%

$1.72

$81.12

-5.85%

$71.46

6.88%

 

 

ESPO

Jan-24

$79.68

$77.98

2.13%

$1.70

$84.35

-5.54%

$77.21

3.19%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.91

$2.84

2.53%

$0.07

$2.89

0.76%

$2.80

4.00%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.17

$2.14

1.03%

$0.02

$2.25

-3.77%

$2.15

0.74%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.07

$2.05

1.08%

$0.02

$2.15

-3.95%

$2.05

0.78%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.60

$2.53

2.69%

$0.07

$2.74

-5.15%

$2.59

0.31%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.73

$1.75

-0.86%

-$0.01

$1.85

-6.37%

$2.11

-17.98%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$780.18

$764.45

2.06%

$15.74

$797.91

-2.22%

$761.34

2.48%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$105.00

$104.71

0.28%

$0.29

$109.25

-3.90%

$98.96

6.10%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Jan-24

69.39%

68.86%

0.77%

0.53%

71.57%

-3.05%

59.77%

16.10%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Jan-24

84.84%

79.76%

6.37%

5.08%

88.22%

-3.83%

81.71%

3.83%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Jan-24

73.82%

68.32%

8.05%

5.50%

77.31%

-4.51%

71.49%

3.26%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Jan-24

68.31%

63.98%

6.77%

4.33%

69.51%

-1.73%

56.93%

19.99%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Jan-24

75.79%

78.24%

-3.13%

-2.45%

78.03%

-2.87%

60.67%

24.92%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Jan-24

118.18%

89.70%

31.75%

28.48%

126.48%

-6.56%

60.53%

95.24%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Jan-24

391.35%

376.87%

3.84%

14.48%

244.18%

60.27%

116.58%

235.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Jan-24

EUR 44.00

EUR 45.17

-2.61%

-EUR 1.18

EUR 54.08

-18.65%

EUR 135.25

-67.47%

 

 

NBP

Jan-24

GBP 112.67

GBP 116.34

-3.15%

-GBP 3.67

GBP 144.00

-21.76%

GBP 353.73

-68.15%

 

 

German Base

Jan-24

EUR 99.92

EUR 104.14

-4.05%

-EUR 4.21

EUR 130.67

-23.53%

EUR 406.27

-75.40%

 

 

UK Base

Jan-24

GBP 103.50

GBP 108.00

-4.17%

-GBP 4.50

GBP 132.38

-21.82%

GBP 315.75

-67.22%

 

 

French Base

Jan-24

EUR 108.84

EUR 112.12

-2.92%

-EUR 3.28

EUR 145.35

-25.12%

EUR 550.31

-80.22%

 

 

Italian Base

Jan-24

EUR 124.52

EUR 128.76

-3.30%

-EUR 4.24

EUR 162.83

-23.53%

EUR 370.78

-66.42%

 

 

JKM LNG

Jan-24

$17.09

$16.49

3.63%

$0.60

$17.86

-4.31%

$34.82

-50.93%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/28/23

11/27/23

% Change

Change

10/30/23

% Change

11/29/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Jan-24

$44.00

$45.17

-2.61%

-$1.18

$54.08

-18.65%

$135.25

-67.47%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Jan-24

$112.67

$116.34

-3.15%

-$3.67

$144.00

-21.76%

$353.73

-68.15%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Jan-24

$99.92

$104.14

-4.05%

-$4.21

$130.67

-23.53%

$406.27

-75.40%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Jan-24

$103.50

$108.00

-4.17%

-$4.50

$132.38

-21.82%

$315.75

-67.22%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Jan-24

$108.84

$112.12

-2.92%

-$3.28

$145.35

-25.12%

$550.31

-80.22%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$124.52

$128.76

-3.30%

-$4.24

$162.83

-23.53%

$370.78

-66.42%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Jan-24

$17.09

$16.49

3.63%

$0.60

$17.86

-4.31%

$34.82

-50.93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

551

134

-102

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

698

42

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

10

-1

-1

2,026

102

-107

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1,632

88

-90

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

3

-2

3

2,933

497

46

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

1,253

10

-131

1.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-1

0

695

-8

-280

-1.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

2

-1

0

1,300

92

-128

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11/25/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

204

20

-14

1,076

-165

38

-13.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

176

6

-26

926

-135

-7

-13.00%

-1.00%

 

 

E N Central

194

-1

-28

1,049

-137

-92

-12.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W N Central

211

-8

-14

1,075

-202

-152

-16.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

86

-3

-22

397

-60

-68

-13.00%

-15.00%

 

 

E S Central

116

-2

-37

482

-120

-179

-20.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W S Central

86

5

-36

307

-12

-93

-4.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Mountain

174

-1

-22

886

-199

-162

-18.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Pacific

96

-8

-1

476

-134

-80

-22.00%

-14.00%

 

 

United States

140

0

-22

697

-116

-81

-14.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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