Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-03-2023

Oct 3, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.889

$2.840

1.73%

$0.049

27,478

 

 

WTI

$88.27

$88.82

-0.62%

-$0.55

104,101

 

 

Brent

$89.88

$95.26

-5.65%

-$5.38

13,504

 

 

ULSD

$3.138

$3.223

-2.63%

-$0.085

12,061

 

 

RBOB

$2.364

$2.412

-2.01%

-$0.048

10,214

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.33

$3.54

-5.93%

-$0.21

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.53

$22.14

-7.30%

-$1.62

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.25

$36.82

-1.55%

-$0.57

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/29/23

623

-7

-142

09/30/22

 

 

Canada

09/29/23

191

1

-22

09/30/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,995

100,567

100,615

-48

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,225

86,535

86,669

-134

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,350

404,910

416,947

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,962

133,382

117,952

15,430

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,666

129,508

129,923

-415

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,896

40,313

40,447

-134

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,285

151,663

151,999

-336

 

 

RBOB

356,733

330,585

342,275

-11,690

 

 

HSC Basis

641,342

635,137

633,476

1,661

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/28/18

 

 

 

9/22/23

9/15/23

Net Change

% Change

9/23/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

821

793

28

3.53%

721

13.87%

792

3.64%

 

 

Midwest

962

931

31

3.33%

879

9.44%

931

3.33%

 

 

Mountain

234

228

6

2.63%

176

32.95%

197

18.90%

 

 

Pacific

271

263

8

3.04%

243

11.52%

271

0.00%

 

 

South

1,071

1,053

18

1.71%

958

11.80%

1,027

4.32%

 

 

    Salt

250

242

8

3.31%

204

22.55%

240

3.99%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

811

10

1.23%

754

8.89%

786

4.45%

 

 

Total

3,359

3,269

90

2.75%

2,977

12.83%

3,217

4.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.44

$42.90

-1.07%

-$0.46

$42.47

-0.07%

$67.41

-37.05%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$37.96

$40.20

-5.55%

-$2.23

$39.73

-4.44%

$50.48

-24.79%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$61.62

$61.25

0.60%

$0.37

$72.49

-15.00%

$73.56

-16.24%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$44.63

$45.26

-1.39%

-$0.63

$46.77

-4.58%

$68.36

-34.71%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$46.68

$49.64

-5.97%

-$2.96

$54.74

-14.72%

$110.75

-57.85%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$88.87

$91.87

-3.27%

-$3.00

$81.97

8.41%

$87.96

1.03%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$45.90

$44.70

2.69%

$1.20

$48.31

-4.99%

$68.17

-32.66%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.840

$2.929

-3.04%

-$0.09

$3.11

-8.71%

$5.22

-45.65%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.446

-$0.427

4.35%

-$0.02

-$0.33

37.05%

-$0.40

11.84%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.259

-$0.250

-3.44%

-$0.01

-$0.11

138.78%

-$0.25

4.02%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.997

-$0.943

-5.76%

-$0.05

-$0.77

29.77%

-$1.57

-36.67%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.883

$0.882

0.15%

$0.00

$1.18

-25.41%

$5.08

-82.61%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.893

-$0.883

1.13%

-$0.01

-$0.78

14.56%

-$1.65

-45.95%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.042

$2.129

-4.13%

-$0.09

$3.62

-43.64%

$0.27

653.91%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.720

$0.729

-1.20%

-$0.01

$0.74

-2.69%

$0.80

-9.96%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.723

$0.741

-2.53%

-$0.02

$0.74

-2.37%

$0.83

-12.64%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.278

$0.273

1.85%

$0.01

$0.28

-1.02%

$0.33

-14.60%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.667

$1.652

0.89%

$0.01

$1.62

2.61%

$1.40

19.39%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.874

$0.894

-2.24%

-$0.02

$0.91

-4.11%

$0.85

2.41%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.708

$0.716

-1.22%

-$0.01

$0.76

-6.74%

$0.83

-14.48%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.769

$1.796

-1.49%

-$0.03

$1.69

4.81%

$1.54

14.88%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$88.82

$90.79

-2.22%

-$1.97

$84.97

4.53%

$72.48

22.54%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$91.48

$93.07

-1.74%

-$1.59

$88.77

3.05%

$77.66

17.79%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$19.12

-$20.72

-8.35%

$1.60

-$15.02

27.27%

-$18.50

3.36%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$87.86

$89.96

-2.40%

-$2.11

$86.01

2.15%

$74.52

17.89%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$85.31

$86.99

-1.97%

-$1.68

$84.92

0.46%

$70.48

21.03%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$86.99

$89.42

-2.79%

-$2.42

$85.29

1.99%

$70.66

23.12%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$89.48

$91.07

-1.78%

-$1.59

$86.77

3.12%

$75.49

18.53%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.24

$3.30

-1.73%

-$0.06

$3.04

6.68%

$2.75

17.89%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.42

$2.40

0.83%

$0.02

$2.51

-3.70%

$2.13

13.57%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.32

$2.30

0.87%

$0.02

$2.41

-3.86%

$2.03

14.24%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.85

$3.01

-5.02%

-$0.15

$2.74

4.31%

$2.48

14.99%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$1.99

1.05%

$0.02

$2.02

-0.05%

$2.12

-5.09%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$868.07

$897.00

-3.23%

-$28.94

$813.82

6.67%

$760.24

14.18%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$117.74

$119.75

-1.68%

-$2.01

$112.27

4.87%

$101.35

16.17%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

60.50%

59.02%

2.51%

1.48%

65.32%

-7.38%

63.06%

-4.06%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

71.65%

71.51%

0.20%

0.14%

79.98%

-10.42%

91.07%

-21.32%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

100.74%

94.10%

7.06%

6.64%

87.64%

14.95%

77.85%

29.40%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

71.40%

69.04%

3.42%

2.36%

68.05%

4.92%

67.04%

6.50%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

58.58%

58.75%

-0.29%

-0.17%

58.16%

0.72%

48.89%

19.82%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

171.21%

177.98%

-3.80%

-6.77%

106.55%

60.69%

47.62%

259.53%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

308.28%

278.92%

10.53%

29.36%

147.10%

109.57%

74.23%

315.30%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/23

9/29/23

% Change

Change

9/1/23

% Change

10/3/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 38.52

EUR 42.54

-9.44%

-EUR 4.01

EUR 47.09

-18.20%

EUR 164.70

-76.61%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 96.46

GBP 107.56

-10.32%

-GBP 11.10

GBP 116.17

-16.96%

GBP 398.23

-75.78%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 104.21

EUR 108.57

-4.02%

-EUR 4.36

EUR 121.62

-14.32%

EUR 487.97

-78.64%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 93.94

GBP 96.08

-2.23%

-GBP 2.14

GBP 114.82

-18.18%

GBP 323.27

-70.94%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 107.43

EUR 111.22

-3.40%

-EUR 3.79

EUR 136.50

-21.30%

EUR 538.22

-80.04%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 123.43

EUR 128.55

-3.98%

-EUR 5.12

EUR 139.25

-11.36%

EUR 363.63

-66.06%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$14.11

$14.66

-3.76%

-$0.55

$14.70

-4.01%

$43.58

-67.62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

0

547

130

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-5

0

692

41

-163

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

2

8

646

-55

-179

-8.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

38

29

33

1,026

111

-60

12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

1

13

1,872

116

-111

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

51

20

31

1,576

91

-129

6.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

47

41

2,727

453

11

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

3

-8

1,178

-6

-156

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

5

-15

-42

643

-20

-276

-3.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

30

6

5

1,225

84

-141

7.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

0

0

134

-56

-5

-29.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

-7

-13

85

-42

2

-33.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

21

-28

-53

120

-36

-14

-23.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

10

-40

-46

92

-91

-22

-50.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-5

-14

18

-7

-10

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-16

-30

10

-23

-30

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-4

1

-8

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-18

9

90

-93

28

-51.00%

45.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

3

19

60

-48

27

-44.00%

82.00%

 

 

United States

20

-10

-15

64

-37

-2

-37.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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