Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-03-2024

Oct 3, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:18 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.938

$2.886

1.80%

$0.052

20,994

 

 

WTI

$71.73

$70.10

2.33%

$1.63

105,616

 

 

Brent

$75.42

$73.90

2.06%

$1.52

15,922

 

 

ULSD

$2.225

$2.182

1.97%

$0.043

6,245

 

 

RBOB

$2.025

$1.986

1.98%

$0.039

8,594

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.14

$4.21

-1.66%

-$0.07

Dec-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.00

$15.89

0.67%

$0.11

Nov-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.13

$38.17

-0.08%

-$0.03

Nov-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/27/24

587

-1

-36

09/30/23

 

 

Canada

09/27/24

218

7

27

09/30/23

 

 

International

August

931

-3

-21

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/24/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

88,998

88,584

88,296

288

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

81,057

80,937

80,159

778

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

337,994

322,601

326,198

-3,597

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

139,146

115,604

111,158

4,446

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

133,631

124,674

126,695

-2,021

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,324

34,164

34,693

-529

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,517

164,835

165,147

-312

 

 

RBOB

338,407

319,060

318,689

371

 

 

HSC Basis

876,540

865,838

866,734

-896

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/13/19

 

 

 

9/13/24

9/6/24

Net Change

% Change

9/15/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

802

780

22

2.82%

793

1.13%

770

4.21%

 

 

Midwest

973

950

23

2.42%

931

4.51%

917

6.08%

 

 

Mountain

275

273

2

0.73%

228

20.61%

201

36.82%

 

 

Pacific

283

285

-2

-0.70%

263

7.60%

266

6.31%

 

 

South

1,111

1,098

13

1.18%

1,053

5.51%

1,047

6.11%

 

 

    Salt

271

266

5

1.88%

242

11.98%

244

11.25%

 

 

    Non_Salt

840

832

8

0.96%

811

3.58%

803

4.56%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,387

58

1.71%

3,269

5.38%

3,202

7.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-24

$44.45

$44.34

0.24%

$0.11

$43.45

2.30%

$46.50

-4.42%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-24

$36.64

$37.42

-2.09%

-$0.78

$30.55

19.95%

$37.35

-1.88%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-24

$38.39

$39.69

-3.27%

-$1.30

$38.09

0.80%

$63.34

-39.40%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-24

$42.37

$42.29

0.18%

$0.08

$41.17

2.89%

$46.55

-9.00%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-24

$47.66

$49.05

-2.83%

-$1.39

$50.99

-6.52%

$70.33

-32.24%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-24

$63.25

$65.88

-4.00%

-$2.63

$58.50

8.11%

$87.91

-28.06%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-24

$41.77

$42.78

-2.35%

-$1.01

$45.00

-7.18%

$50.13

-16.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-24

$2.886

$2.896

-0.35%

-$0.01

$2.51

15.16%

$3.73

-22.69%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-24

-$0.375

-$0.407

-7.87%

$0.03

-$0.62

-39.34%

-$0.30

24.78%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-24

-$0.219

-$0.214

-2.55%

-$0.01

-$0.25

-12.94%

-$0.24

-8.85%

 

 

Waha

Nov-24

-$0.945

-$0.979

-3.47%

$0.03

-$1.41

-33.03%

-$0.64

47.57%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-24

$0.701

$0.648

8.23%

$0.05

$0.76

-8.30%

$2.84

-75.31%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-24

-$1.539

-$1.584

-2.82%

$0.04

-$0.98

57.33%

-$1.15

34.17%

 

 

Socal

Nov-24

$0.472

$0.505

-6.56%

-$0.03

$0.46

3.02%

$1.17

-59.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-24

$0.782

$0.750

4.29%

$0.03

$0.76

3.57%

$0.75

4.51%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-24

$0.795

$0.765

3.92%

$0.03

$0.76

4.42%

$0.75

5.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-24

$0.223

$0.215

3.49%

$0.01

$0.18

21.19%

$0.28

-21.88%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.483

$1.480

0.17%

$0.00

$1.44

3.12%

$1.56

-5.10%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-24

$1.078

$1.042

3.45%

$0.04

$0.98

9.72%

$0.87

23.94%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-24

$6.730

$6.685

0.67%

$0.04

$6.38

5.57%

$5.83

15.35%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-24

$6.300

$6.350

-0.78%

-$0.05

$6.00

5.00%

$5.32

18.43%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-24

$70.10

$69.83

0.39%

$0.27

$68.52

2.31%

$78.06

-10.20%

 

 

Brent

Nov-24

$74.07

$73.72

0.47%

$0.35

$72.70

1.88%

$82.59

-10.32%

 

 

WCS

Nov-24

-$12.60

-$13.58

-7.78%

$0.98

-$14.23

-11.44%

-$15.27

-17.50%

 

 

LLS

Nov-24

$72.13

$72.16

-0.04%

-$0.03

$69.81

3.32%

$80.51

-10.41%

 

 

Mars

Nov-24

$68.83

$68.31

0.75%

$0.52

$67.04

2.67%

$76.35

-9.84%

 

 

Sour

Nov-24

$70.48

$69.95

0.75%

$0.53

$68.27

3.24%

$76.69

-8.09%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-24

$72.07

$71.72

0.48%

$0.35

$70.70

1.93%

$80.59

-10.58%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-24

$2.26

$2.19

2.87%

$0.06

$2.17

3.96%

$2.70

-16.48%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.94

$1.97

-1.27%

-$0.02

$1.93

0.67%

$2.21

-12.10%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.84

$1.87

-1.34%

-$0.02

$1.83

0.71%

$2.11

-12.67%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-24

$2.04

$2.00

1.90%

$0.04

$2.04

-0.15%

$2.50

-18.47%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-24

$1.58

$1.61

-1.56%

-$0.02

$1.75

-9.71%

$1.75

-9.77%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-24

$621.87

$630.27

-1.33%

-$8.40

$626.63

-0.76%

$742.22

-16.21%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-24

$86.74

$82.42

5.25%

$4.32

$85.73

1.19%

$102.65

-15.50%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-24

57.86%

58.84%

-1.67%

-0.98%

58.95%

-1.85%

37.66%

53.64%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-24

80.95%

76.15%

6.30%

4.80%

110.44%

-26.70%

40.61%

99.34%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-24

102.91%

110.62%

-6.97%

-7.71%

122.95%

-16.30%

45.67%

125.33%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-24

62.23%

64.72%

-3.85%

-2.49%

71.79%

-13.32%

40.28%

54.49%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-24

51.14%

50.33%

1.61%

0.81%

44.10%

15.96%

40.18%

27.28%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-24

104.15%

99.05%

5.15%

5.10%

152.30%

-31.62%

35.29%

195.13%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-24

194.97%

140.76%

38.51%

54.21%

132.62%

47.01%

70.91%

174.95%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-24

EUR 38.89

EUR 39.28

-1.00%

-EUR 0.39

EUR 37.88

2.67%

EUR 46.76

-16.82%

 

 

NBP

Nov-24

GBP 96.57

GBP 97.64

-1.09%

-GBP 1.07

GBP 94.94

1.72%

GBP 121.85

-20.74%

 

 

German Base

Nov-24

EUR 86.57

EUR 88.95

-2.68%

-EUR 2.38

EUR 94.57

-8.46%

EUR 132.65

-34.74%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-24

GBP 83.83

GBP 82.61

1.48%

GBP 1.22

GBP 83.60

0.28%

GBP 114.65

-26.88%

 

 

French Base

Nov-24

EUR 78.17

EUR 76.30

2.44%

EUR 1.86

EUR 91.59

-14.65%

EUR 151.85

-48.52%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-24

EUR 117.86

EUR 116.36

1.29%

EUR 1.50

EUR 119.86

-1.67%

EUR 145.49

-18.99%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-24

$12.67

$13.22

-4.15%

-$0.55

$13.27

-4.54%

$15.00

-15.58%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/2/24

10/1/24

% Change

Change

9/4/24

% Change

10/3/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Nov-24

$38.89

$39.28

-1.00%

-$0.39

$37.88

2.67%

$46.76

-16.82%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Nov-24

$96.57

$97.64

-1.09%

-$1.07

$94.94

1.72%

$121.85

-20.74%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Nov-24

$86.57

$88.95

-2.68%

-$2.38

$94.57

-8.46%

$132.65

-34.74%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Nov-24

$83.83

$82.61

1.48%

$1.22

$83.60

0.28%

$114.65

-26.88%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Nov-24

$78.17

$76.30

2.44%

$1.86

$91.59

-14.65%

$151.85

-48.52%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$117.86

$116.36

1.29%

$1.50

$119.86

-1.67%

$145.49

-18.99%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$12.67

$13.22

-4.15%

-$0.55

$13.27

-4.54%

$15.00

-15.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/28/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

0

1

567

151

19

36.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

-2

4

767

117

75

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

7

1

-3

769

69

126

10.00%

19.00%

 

 

W N Central

14

4

-17

973

60

-44

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

69

20

25

1,947

202

83

12.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

58

24

7

1,721

243

153

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

75

12

-36

2,517

257

-195

11.00%

-7.00%

 

 

Mountain

44

15

15

1,308

131

133

11.00%

11.00%

 

 

Pacific

30

8

26

817

159

174

24.00%

27.00%

 

 

United States

35

9

5

1,288

152

67

13.00%

5.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/28/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

40

-15

-17

118

-53

4

-31.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

17

-24

-23

54

-58

-21

-52.00%

-28.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

-25

-1

97

-44

-19

-31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

W N Central

25

-21

13

88

-80

-4

-48.00%

-4.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-12

-11

10

-10

-6

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

4

-11

1

13

-14

3

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-3

1

3

-5

2

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

18

-25

-13

64

-105

-17

-62.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

9

-11

-10

58

-44

10

-43.00%

21.00%

 

 

United States

12

-15

-7

51

-40

-6

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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