Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-04-2023

Oct 4, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:21 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.023

$2.949

2.51%

$0.074

33,055

 

 

WTI

$87.62

$89.23

-1.80%

-$1.61

119,179

 

 

Brent

$89.35

$90.92

-1.73%

-$1.57

12,107

 

 

ULSD

$3.101

$3.195

-2.95%

-$0.094

12,212

 

 

RBOB

$2.315

$2.360

-1.91%

-$0.045

10,897

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.45

$3.48

-0.86%

-$0.03

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.79

$20.52

-3.54%

-$0.73

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.16

$36.13

0.07%

$0.03

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/29/23

623

-7

-142

09/30/22

 

 

Canada

09/29/23

191

1

-22

09/30/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,995

100,567

100,615

-48

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,225

86,535

86,669

-134

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,350

404,910

416,947

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,962

133,382

117,952

15,430

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,666

129,508

129,923

-415

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,896

40,313

40,447

-134

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,285

151,663

151,999

-336

 

 

RBOB

356,733

330,585

342,275

-11,690

 

 

HSC Basis

641,342

635,137

633,476

1,661

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/28/18

 

 

 

9/22/23

9/15/23

Net Change

% Change

9/23/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

821

793

28

3.53%

721

13.87%

792

3.64%

 

 

Midwest

962

931

31

3.33%

879

9.44%

931

3.33%

 

 

Mountain

234

228

6

2.63%

176

32.95%

197

18.90%

 

 

Pacific

271

263

8

3.04%

243

11.52%

271

0.00%

 

 

South

1,071

1,053

18

1.71%

958

11.80%

1,027

4.32%

 

 

    Salt

250

242

8

3.31%

204

22.55%

240

3.99%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

811

10

1.23%

754

8.89%

786

4.45%

 

 

Total

3,359

3,269

90

2.75%

2,977

12.83%

3,217

4.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.64

$42.44

0.48%

$0.20

$41.91

1.76%

$67.44

-36.77%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$39.11

$37.96

3.02%

$1.14

$38.77

0.87%

$49.61

-21.17%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$62.23

$61.62

1.00%

$0.62

$72.29

-13.91%

$73.25

-15.04%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$44.60

$44.63

-0.08%

-$0.03

$46.14

-3.34%

$68.39

-34.79%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$48.03

$46.68

2.90%

$1.36

$53.73

-10.61%

$110.90

-56.69%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$88.19

$88.87

-0.76%

-$0.68

$79.95

10.30%

$90.62

-2.69%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$43.15

$45.90

-6.00%

-$2.76

$47.63

-9.41%

$69.40

-37.83%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.949

$2.840

3.84%

$0.11

$2.99

-1.40%

$5.28

-44.13%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.443

-$0.446

-0.52%

$0.00

-$0.35

27.78%

-$0.40

11.94%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.234

-$0.259

10.56%

$0.02

-$0.17

38.65%

-$0.25

-5.84%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$1.002

-$0.997

-0.50%

$0.00

-$0.79

27.00%

-$1.58

-36.77%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.785

$0.883

-11.09%

-$0.10

$1.16

-32.15%

$5.08

-84.56%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.850

-$0.893

-4.84%

$0.04

-$0.81

5.04%

-$1.62

-47.63%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.343

$2.042

14.78%

$0.30

$2.97

-20.98%

$0.24

859.23%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.730

$0.720

1.39%

$0.01

$0.75

-3.31%

$0.82

-11.50%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.730

$0.723

1.04%

$0.01

$0.75

-2.96%

$0.82

-10.92%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.285

$0.278

2.63%

$0.01

$0.27

4.12%

$0.33

-13.10%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.663

$1.667

-0.23%

$0.00

$1.62

2.89%

$1.53

8.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.873

$0.874

-0.15%

$0.00

$0.93

-5.93%

$0.83

4.70%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.714

$0.708

0.88%

$0.01

$0.77

-7.41%

$0.86

-16.76%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.798

$1.769

1.66%

$0.03

$1.65

9.30%

$1.55

16.15%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$89.23

$88.82

0.46%

$0.41

$86.01

3.74%

$74.78

19.32%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$91.72

$91.48

0.27%

$0.24

$90.04

1.87%

$80.02

14.62%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$18.10

-$19.12

-5.62%

$1.02

-$20.00

-9.47%

-$18.21

-0.57%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$88.88

$87.86

1.15%

$1.02

$87.11

2.03%

$76.75

15.80%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$85.21

$85.31

-0.11%

-$0.10

$85.10

0.14%

$72.67

17.26%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$86.98

$86.99

-0.01%

-$0.01

$86.23

0.88%

$72.92

19.28%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$89.72

$89.48

0.27%

$0.24

$88.04

1.91%

$78.45

14.37%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.21

$3.24

-1.02%

-$0.03

$3.15

1.97%

$3.00

6.82%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.38

$2.42

-1.57%

-$0.04

$2.52

-5.48%

$2.21

7.89%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.28

$2.32

-1.64%

-$0.04

$2.42

-5.71%

$2.11

8.26%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.88

$2.85

0.88%

$0.02

$2.86

0.63%

$2.69

6.91%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$2.02

0.00%

$0.00

$2.02

0.00%

$2.14

-6.02%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$857.70

$868.07

-1.19%

-$10.36

$837.95

2.36%

$804.18

6.66%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$116.00

$117.74

-1.48%

-$1.74

$115.28

0.63%

$100.49

15.43%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

53.48%

60.50%

-11.60%

-7.02%

61.01%

-12.34%

56.64%

-5.58%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

56.38%

71.65%

-21.31%

-15.27%

73.20%

-22.98%

87.56%

-35.61%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

85.82%

100.74%

-14.81%

-14.92%

86.62%

-0.92%

72.94%

17.66%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

63.29%

71.40%

-11.36%

-8.11%

67.16%

-5.76%

61.37%

3.13%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

57.18%

58.58%

-2.39%

-1.40%

57.81%

-1.09%

48.96%

16.79%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

156.84%

171.21%

-8.39%

-14.37%

101.89%

53.93%

48.31%

224.65%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

290.52%

308.28%

-5.76%

-17.76%

149.10%

94.85%

74.60%

289.44%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/3/23

10/2/23

% Change

Change

9/5/23

% Change

10/4/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 37.18

EUR 38.52

-3.49%

-EUR 1.34

EUR 45.50

-18.29%

EUR 156.50

-76.24%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 92.95

GBP 96.46

-3.64%

-GBP 3.51

GBP 110.95

-16.23%

GBP 382.16

-75.68%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 97.66

EUR 104.21

-6.29%

-EUR 6.55

EUR 116.38

-16.08%

EUR 479.50

-79.63%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 89.43

GBP 93.94

-4.79%

-GBP 4.50

GBP 109.17

-18.08%

GBP 317.32

-71.82%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 100.59

EUR 107.43

-6.37%

-EUR 6.84

EUR 135.45

-25.74%

EUR 522.26

-80.74%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 118.11

EUR 123.43

-4.31%

-EUR 5.32

EUR 135.73

-12.98%

EUR 355.14

-66.74%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$13.68

$14.11

-3.04%

-$0.43

$14.25

-3.99%

$40.11

-65.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

0

547

130

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-5

0

692

41

-163

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

2

8

646

-55

-179

-8.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

38

29

33

1,026

111

-60

12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

1

13

1,872

116

-111

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

51

20

31

1,576

91

-129

6.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

47

41

2,727

453

11

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

3

-8

1,178

-6

-156

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

5

-15

-42

643

-20

-276

-3.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

30

6

5

1,225

84

-141

7.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

0

0

134

-56

-5

-29.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

-7

-13

85

-42

2

-33.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

21

-28

-53

120

-36

-14

-23.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

10

-40

-46

92

-91

-22

-50.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-5

-14

18

-7

-10

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-16

-30

10

-23

-30

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-4

1

-8

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-18

9

90

-93

28

-51.00%

45.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

3

19

60

-48

27

-44.00%

82.00%

 

 

United States

20

-10

-15

64

-37

-2

-37.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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