Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-05-2023

Oct 5, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:36 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.053

$2.962

3.07%

$0.091

31,133

 

 

WTI

$82.92

$84.22

-1.54%

-$1.30

153,841

 

 

Brent

$84.62

$85.81

-1.39%

-$1.19

16,761

 

 

ULSD

$2.902

$3.018

-3.84%

-$0.116

18,445

 

 

RBOB

$2.183

$2.198

-0.67%

-$0.015

12,295

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.28

$3.26

0.61%

$0.02

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$18.50

$18.99

-2.55%

-$0.48

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.41

$36.31

0.27%

$0.10

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/29/23

623

-7

-142

09/30/22

 

 

Canada

09/29/23

191

1

-22

09/30/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,995

100,567

100,615

-48

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,225

86,535

86,669

-134

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,350

404,910

416,947

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,962

133,382

117,952

15,430

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,666

129,508

129,923

-415

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,896

40,313

40,447

-134

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,285

151,663

151,999

-336

 

 

RBOB

356,733

330,585

342,275

-11,690

 

 

HSC Basis

641,342

635,137

633,476

1,661

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/28/18

 

 

 

9/22/23

9/15/23

Net Change

% Change

9/23/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

821

793

28

3.53%

721

13.87%

792

3.64%

 

 

Midwest

962

931

31

3.33%

879

9.44%

931

3.33%

 

 

Mountain

234

228

6

2.63%

176

32.95%

197

18.90%

 

 

Pacific

271

263

8

3.04%

243

11.52%

271

0.00%

 

 

South

1,071

1,053

18

1.71%

958

11.80%

1,027

4.32%

 

 

    Salt

250

242

8

3.31%

204

22.55%

240

3.99%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

811

10

1.23%

754

8.89%

786

4.45%

 

 

Total

3,359

3,269

90

2.75%

2,977

12.83%

3,217

4.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.93

$42.64

0.66%

$0.28

$41.13

4.37%

$68.92

-37.72%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$39.04

$39.11

-0.17%

-$0.06

$37.95

2.88%

$51.41

-24.05%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$66.36

$62.23

6.63%

$4.13

$67.00

-0.96%

$76.00

-12.68%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$45.23

$44.60

1.43%

$0.64

$45.44

-0.46%

$69.99

-35.37%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$43.39

$48.03

-9.68%

-$4.65

$54.05

-19.74%

$113.28

-61.70%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$92.27

$88.19

4.63%

$4.08

$79.73

15.73%

$89.38

3.24%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$43.93

$43.15

1.81%

$0.78

$47.46

-7.45%

$71.03

-38.16%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.962

$2.949

0.44%

$0.01

$2.94

0.65%

$5.37

-44.83%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.411

-$0.443

-7.37%

$0.03

-$0.36

12.64%

-$0.37

11.18%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.235

-$0.234

-0.59%

$0.00

-$0.18

32.41%

-$0.25

-5.46%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.958

-$1.002

-4.35%

$0.04

-$0.87

10.22%

-$1.61

-40.55%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.570

$0.785

-27.40%

-$0.22

$1.24

-54.14%

$5.04

-88.69%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.856

-$0.850

0.68%

-$0.01

-$0.77

10.61%

-$1.69

-49.42%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.808

$2.343

19.83%

$0.46

$2.59

8.22%

$0.23

1120.34%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.706

$0.730

-3.26%

-$0.02

$0.75

-6.46%

$0.85

-16.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.705

$0.730

-3.42%

-$0.02

$0.75

-6.30%

$0.87

-18.64%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.280

$0.285

-1.80%

-$0.01

$0.28

0.78%

$0.34

-16.69%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.556

$1.663

-6.41%

-$0.11

$1.65

-5.78%

$1.59

-1.95%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.843

$0.873

-3.36%

-$0.03

$0.91

-7.71%

$0.86

-2.36%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.693

$0.714

-2.98%

-$0.02

$0.77

-10.19%

$0.90

-22.74%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.835

$1.798

2.03%

$0.04

$1.66

10.35%

$1.63

12.23%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$84.22

$89.23

-5.95%

-$5.01

$86.79

-2.96%

$76.61

9.93%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$86.55

$91.72

-5.97%

-$5.17

$90.60

-4.47%

$81.88

5.70%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$19.11

-$18.10

5.25%

-$1.00

-$18.74

1.97%

-$18.70

2.18%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$84.42

$88.88

-5.28%

-$4.46

$88.12

-4.20%

$78.75

7.21%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$82.38

$85.21

-3.45%

-$2.84

$85.32

-3.46%

$74.68

10.30%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$84.70

$86.98

-2.69%

-$2.28

$86.40

-1.97%

$74.96

12.99%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$84.55

$89.72

-6.11%

-$5.17

$88.60

-4.57%

$76.63

10.33%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.02

$3.21

-5.92%

-$0.19

$3.13

-3.58%

$3.19

-5.30%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.25

$2.38

-5.63%

-$0.13

$2.51

-10.66%

$2.18

3.07%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.15

$2.28

-5.88%

-$0.13

$2.41

-11.10%

$2.08

3.22%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.79

$2.88

-3.27%

-$0.09

$2.83

-1.73%

$2.83

-1.62%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.00

$2.02

-0.74%

-$0.02

$2.00

-0.10%

$2.12

-5.53%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$820.85

$857.70

-4.30%

-$36.86

$835.57

-1.76%

$776.97

5.65%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$112.15

$116.00

-3.32%

-$3.85

$112.86

-0.63%

$110.49

1.50%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

55.83%

53.48%

4.39%

2.35%

65.72%

-15.05%

56.74%

-1.60%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

67.59%

56.38%

19.88%

11.21%

82.20%

-17.77%

85.99%

-21.40%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

90.49%

85.82%

5.44%

4.67%

93.48%

-3.20%

72.21%

25.32%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

66.32%

63.29%

4.79%

3.03%

72.90%

-9.03%

60.32%

9.95%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

56.41%

57.18%

-1.35%

-0.77%

56.53%

-0.21%

48.77%

15.67%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

174.96%

156.84%

11.55%

18.12%

151.44%

15.53%

47.39%

269.19%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

310.43%

290.52%

6.85%

19.91%

146.05%

112.55%

74.77%

315.18%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/4/23

10/3/23

% Change

Change

9/6/23

% Change

10/5/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 37.89

EUR 37.18

1.92%

EUR 0.72

EUR 42.47

-10.79%

EUR 175.00

-78.35%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 94.25

GBP 92.95

1.40%

GBP 1.30

GBP 103.41

-8.86%

GBP 413.47

-77.21%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 98.68

EUR 97.66

1.04%

EUR 1.02

EUR 114.54

-13.85%

EUR 483.33

-79.58%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 90.45

GBP 89.43

1.14%

GBP 1.02

GBP 101.08

-10.51%

GBP 352.41

-74.33%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 101.72

EUR 100.59

1.12%

EUR 1.13

EUR 128.30

-20.72%

EUR 532.97

-80.91%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 120.52

EUR 118.11

2.04%

EUR 2.41

EUR 134.42

-10.34%

EUR 352.17

-65.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$13.99

$13.68

2.29%

$0.31

$13.90

0.68%

$44.81

-68.78%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

0

547

130

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-5

0

692

41

-163

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

2

8

646

-55

-179

-8.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

38

29

33

1,026

111

-60

12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

1

13

1,872

116

-111

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

51

20

31

1,576

91

-129

6.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

47

41

2,727

453

11

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

3

-8

1,178

-6

-156

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

5

-15

-42

643

-20

-276

-3.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

30

6

5

1,225

84

-141

7.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

0

0

134

-56

-5

-29.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

-7

-13

85

-42

2

-33.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

21

-28

-53

120

-36

-14

-23.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

10

-40

-46

92

-91

-22

-50.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-5

-14

18

-7

-10

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-16

-30

10

-23

-30

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-4

1

-8

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-18

9

90

-93

28

-51.00%

45.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

3

19

60

-48

27

-44.00%

82.00%

 

 

United States

20

-10

-15

64

-37

-2

-37.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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