Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-06-2023

Oct 6, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.224

$3.166

1.83%

$0.058

41,472

 

 

WTI

$82.48

$82.31

0.21%

$0.17

155,471

 

 

Brent

$84.35

$84.07

0.33%

$0.28

15,037

 

 

ULSD

$2.937

$2.869

2.38%

$0.068

16,826

 

 

RBOB

$2.197

$2.189

0.34%

$0.008

8,406

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.24

$3.26

-0.61%

-$0.02

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.45

$18.58

4.69%

$0.87

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.41

$36.15

0.72%

$0.26

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/29/23

623

-7

-142

09/30/22

 

 

Canada

09/29/23

191

1

-22

09/30/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/26/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

100,995

100,567

100,615

-48

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,225

86,535

86,669

-134

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,350

404,910

416,947

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

156,962

133,382

117,952

15,430

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,666

129,508

129,923

-415

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,896

40,313

40,447

-134

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

152,285

151,663

151,999

-336

 

 

RBOB

356,733

330,585

342,275

-11,690

 

 

HSC Basis

641,342

635,137

633,476

1,661

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/05/18

 

 

 

9/29/23

9/22/23

Net Change

% Change

9/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

847

821

26

3.17%

756

12.04%

821

3.22%

 

 

Midwest

991

962

29

3.01%

916

8.19%

966

2.61%

 

 

Mountain

239

234

5

2.14%

184

29.89%

202

18.43%

 

 

Pacific

278

271

7

2.58%

247

12.55%

274

1.39%

 

 

South

1,090

1,071

19

1.77%

1,003

8.67%

1,057

3.08%

 

 

    Salt

259

250

9

3.60%

225

15.11%

254

1.97%

 

 

    Non_Salt

830

821

9

1.10%

778

6.68%

803

3.34%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,359

86

2.56%

3,106

10.91%

3,319

3.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$43.31

$42.93

0.90%

$0.39

$40.35

7.34%

$69.19

-37.41%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$39.01

$39.04

-0.09%

-$0.03

$37.69

3.51%

$55.50

-29.71%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$72.64

$66.36

9.47%

$6.28

$65.69

10.58%

$73.72

-1.46%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$45.71

$45.23

1.05%

$0.47

$43.57

4.90%

$70.21

-34.90%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$47.00

$43.39

8.33%

$3.62

$52.38

-10.27%

$117.90

-60.13%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$94.12

$92.27

2.00%

$1.84

$78.51

19.88%

$91.34

3.04%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$43.97

$43.93

0.11%

$0.05

$46.03

-4.47%

$70.82

-37.91%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.166

$2.962

6.89%

$0.20

$2.96

7.03%

$5.37

-41.00%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.403

-$0.411

-1.83%

$0.01

-$0.36

12.59%

-$0.39

4.67%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.190

-$0.235

24.17%

$0.05

-$0.18

5.57%

-$0.23

-15.89%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.922

-$0.958

-3.76%

$0.04

-$0.90

2.71%

-$1.62

-42.99%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.858

$0.570

50.65%

$0.29

$1.32

-34.80%

$5.04

-82.96%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.057

-$0.856

23.52%

-$0.20

-$0.82

29.46%

-$1.64

-35.65%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.897

$2.808

3.17%

$0.09

$2.41

20.43%

$0.24

1107.04%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.692

$0.706

-1.95%

-$0.01

$0.75

-7.97%

$0.88

-21.11%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.700

$0.705

-0.71%

-$0.01

$0.75

-6.99%

$0.88

-20.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.289

$0.280

3.24%

$0.01

$0.28

3.59%

$0.33

-13.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.520

$1.556

-2.33%

-$0.04

$1.66

-8.51%

$1.61

-5.44%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.824

$0.843

-2.27%

-$0.02

$0.90

-8.70%

$0.87

-5.39%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.683

$0.693

-1.38%

-$0.01

$0.77

-11.02%

$0.92

-25.52%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.708

$1.835

-6.92%

-$0.13

$1.71

0.12%

$1.65

3.22%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$82.31

$84.22

-2.32%

-$1.91

$86.15

-4.46%

$77.68

5.96%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$84.71

$86.55

-2.17%

-$1.84

$89.92

-5.80%

$82.93

2.15%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$19.38

-$19.11

1.42%

-$0.27

-$16.94

14.44%

-$18.37

5.50%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$82.07

$84.42

-2.87%

-$2.36

$87.15

-5.84%

$80.75

1.63%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$79.69

$82.38

-3.37%

-$2.68

$85.43

-6.71%

$76.68

3.93%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$81.66

$84.70

-3.72%

-$3.04

$86.67

-5.78%

$76.16

7.21%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$82.71

$84.55

-2.23%

-$1.84

$87.92

-5.93%

$80.11

3.25%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$2.88

$3.02

-4.60%

-$0.14

$3.16

-8.75%

$2.92

-1.34%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.19

$2.25

-2.40%

-$0.05

$2.56

-14.27%

$2.18

0.74%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.09

$2.15

-2.52%

-$0.05

$2.46

-14.86%

$2.08

0.77%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.59

$2.79

-7.18%

-$0.20

$2.81

-7.84%

$2.86

-9.74%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.01

$2.00

0.25%

$0.01

$2.01

-0.15%

$2.10

-4.48%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$777.73

$820.85

-5.25%

-$43.12

$836.08

-6.98%

$826.52

-5.90%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$108.39

$112.15

-3.36%

-$3.76

$112.96

-4.05%

$105.22

3.01%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

49.76%

55.83%

-10.87%

-6.07%

62.38%

-20.23%

59.38%

-16.20%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

75.77%

67.59%

12.10%

8.18%

71.48%

6.00%

86.58%

-12.49%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

84.12%

90.49%

-7.04%

-6.37%

85.93%

-2.11%

74.92%

12.28%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

62.77%

66.32%

-5.35%

-3.55%

68.08%

-7.80%

62.16%

0.98%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

55.09%

56.41%

-2.34%

-1.32%

57.20%

-3.69%

49.31%

11.72%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

139.03%

174.96%

-20.54%

-35.93%

118.26%

17.56%

50.04%

177.84%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

273.22%

310.43%

-11.99%

-37.21%

150.75%

81.24%

75.99%

259.55%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/5/23

10/4/23

% Change

Change

9/7/23

% Change

10/6/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 36.35

EUR 37.89

-4.08%

-EUR 1.54

EUR 43.46

-16.36%

EUR 173.47

-79.05%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 90.27

GBP 94.25

-4.22%

-GBP 3.98

GBP 106.03

-14.87%

GBP 429.66

-78.99%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 95.60

EUR 98.68

-3.12%

-EUR 3.08

EUR 112.03

-14.67%

EUR 495.92

-80.72%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 88.75

GBP 90.45

-1.88%

-GBP 1.70

GBP 104.47

-15.05%

GBP 355.01

-75.00%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 98.35

EUR 101.72

-3.31%

-EUR 3.37

EUR 120.82

-18.60%

EUR 541.66

-81.84%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 116.89

EUR 120.52

-3.02%

-EUR 3.64

EUR 128.65

-9.14%

EUR 370.70

-68.47%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$13.47

$13.99

-3.71%

-$0.52

$14.05

-4.13%

$48.41

-72.17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

0

547

130

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-5

0

692

41

-163

6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

2

8

646

-55

-179

-8.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

38

29

33

1,026

111

-60

12.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

47

1

13

1,872

116

-111

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

51

20

31

1,576

91

-129

6.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

106

47

41

2,727

453

11

20.00%

0.00%

 

 

Mountain

30

3

-8

1,178

-6

-156

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

5

-15

-42

643

-20

-276

-3.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

30

6

5

1,225

84

-141

7.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/30/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

0

0

134

-56

-5

-29.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

-7

-13

85

-42

2

-33.00%

2.00%

 

 

E N Central

21

-28

-53

120

-36

-14

-23.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

10

-40

-46

92

-91

-22

-50.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

9

-5

-14

18

-7

-10

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-16

-30

10

-23

-30

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-4

-4

1

-8

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

28

-18

9

90

-93

28

-51.00%

45.00%

 

 

Pacific

24

3

19

60

-48

27

-44.00%

82.00%

 

 

United States

20

-10

-15

64

-37

-2

-37.00%

-2.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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