Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-09-2023

Oct 9, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:34 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.367

$3.338

0.87%

$0.029

50,174

 

 

WTI

$85.92

$82.79

3.78%

$3.13

207,683

 

 

Brent

$87.54

$84.58

3.50%

$2.96

17,410

 

 

ULSD

$2.946

$2.901

1.54%

$0.045

12,299

 

 

RBOB

$2.241

$2.192

2.23%

$0.049

9,775

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.36

$3.30

1.82%

$0.06

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.86

$18.79

-4.91%

-$0.92

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.06

$36.17

2.48%

$0.90

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/06/23

619

-4

-143

10/07/22

 

 

Canada

10/06/23

180

-11

-35

10/07/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

103,169

101,531

102,274

-743

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,998

87,746

88,125

-379

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

411,082

385,753

399,286

-13,533

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,634

223,274

198,439

24,835

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,793

113,864

114,385

-521

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,486

34,941

35,035

-94

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,673

156,061

156,327

-266

 

 

RBOB

305,128

281,886

289,734

-7,848

 

 

HSC Basis

671,370

657,136

661,294

-4,158

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/05/18

 

 

 

9/29/23

9/22/23

Net Change

% Change

9/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

847

821

26

3.17%

756

12.04%

821

3.22%

 

 

Midwest

991

962

29

3.01%

916

8.19%

966

2.61%

 

 

Mountain

239

234

5

2.14%

184

29.89%

202

18.43%

 

 

Pacific

278

271

7

2.58%

247

12.55%

274

1.39%

 

 

South

1,090

1,071

19

1.77%

1,003

8.67%

1,057

3.08%

 

 

    Salt

259

250

9

3.60%

225

15.11%

254

1.97%

 

 

    Non_Salt

830

821

9

1.10%

778

6.68%

803

3.34%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,359

86

2.56%

3,106

10.91%

3,319

3.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$44.27

$43.31

2.21%

$0.96

$40.62

8.99%

$68.82

-35.67%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$41.74

$39.01

7.00%

$2.73

$37.11

12.48%

$53.27

-21.65%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$70.27

$72.64

-3.27%

-$2.37

$63.46

10.74%

$76.08

-7.64%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$46.62

$45.71

1.99%

$0.91

$43.75

6.57%

$69.83

-33.24%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$51.48

$47.00

9.53%

$4.48

$52.43

-1.82%

$114.82

-55.16%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$96.68

$94.12

2.72%

$2.56

$79.11

22.21%

$88.77

8.91%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$48.11

$43.97

9.40%

$4.13

$46.08

4.39%

$71.32

-32.55%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.338

$3.166

5.43%

$0.17

$2.97

12.54%

$5.41

-38.27%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.391

-$0.403

-3.13%

$0.01

-$0.35

12.34%

-$0.40

-2.28%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.178

-$0.190

6.46%

$0.01

-$0.18

-2.79%

-$0.23

-21.06%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.878

-$0.922

-4.79%

$0.04

-$0.92

-4.23%

-$1.69

-47.89%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.785

$0.858

-8.57%

-$0.07

$1.31

-39.98%

$5.01

-84.34%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.191

-$1.057

12.70%

-$0.13

-$0.80

49.72%

-$1.63

-27.10%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.885

$2.897

-0.40%

-$0.01

$2.37

21.50%

$0.24

1106.23%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.686

$0.692

-0.90%

-$0.01

$0.76

-10.00%

$0.89

-22.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.686

$0.700

-1.97%

-$0.01

$0.77

-10.87%

$0.87

-21.20%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.293

$0.289

1.37%

$0.00

$0.28

5.49%

$0.33

-10.77%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.538

$1.520

1.16%

$0.02

$1.65

-7.09%

$1.65

-6.54%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.805

$0.824

-2.30%

-$0.02

$0.91

-11.15%

$0.85

-5.83%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.674

$0.683

-1.35%

-$0.01

$0.78

-13.76%

$0.92

-26.40%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.698

$1.708

-0.58%

-$0.01

$1.70

-0.28%

$1.70

0.09%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$82.79

$82.31

0.58%

$0.48

$86.81

-4.63%

$79.61

3.99%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$85.23

$84.71

0.61%

$0.52

$90.65

-5.98%

$85.01

0.26%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$20.50

-$19.38

5.43%

-$1.11

-$18.07

13.41%

-$17.17

19.39%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$83.03

$82.07

1.16%

$0.96

$87.71

-5.34%

$81.36

2.04%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$79.19

$79.69

-0.64%

-$0.51

$86.17

-8.10%

$77.32

2.42%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$80.80

$81.66

-1.07%

-$0.86

$87.14

-7.28%

$77.69

4.00%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$83.23

$82.71

0.63%

$0.52

$88.65

-6.11%

$84.10

-1.03%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$2.91

$2.88

1.04%

$0.03

$3.21

-9.40%

$2.99

-2.64%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.19

$2.19

0.05%

$0.00

$2.59

-15.23%

$2.30

-4.74%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.09

$2.09

0.05%

$0.00

$2.49

-15.84%

$2.20

-4.95%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.63

$2.59

1.82%

$0.05

$2.84

-7.16%

$2.91

-9.68%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$2.01

0.50%

$0.01

$2.01

0.05%

$2.10

-3.96%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$793.04

$777.73

1.97%

$15.31

$861.79

-7.98%

$823.82

-3.74%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$108.31

$108.39

-0.07%

-$0.07

$116.96

-7.39%

$103.30

4.86%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

59.51%

49.76%

19.59%

9.75%

65.19%

-8.71%

61.09%

-2.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

79.06%

75.77%

4.34%

3.29%

78.19%

1.11%

84.65%

-6.60%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

96.51%

84.12%

14.73%

12.39%

89.86%

7.40%

75.24%

28.27%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

72.02%

62.77%

14.74%

9.25%

73.68%

-2.25%

64.00%

12.53%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

58.61%

55.09%

6.39%

3.52%

57.59%

1.77%

49.30%

18.88%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

189.86%

139.03%

36.56%

50.83%

120.32%

57.80%

54.42%

248.88%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

200.52%

273.22%

-26.61%

-72.70%

153.82%

30.36%

76.59%

161.81%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/6/23

10/5/23

% Change

Change

9/8/23

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 38.05

EUR 36.35

4.69%

EUR 1.70

EUR 44.44

-14.37%

EUR 166.22

-77.11%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 94.15

GBP 90.27

4.31%

GBP 3.89

GBP 108.93

-13.57%

GBP 400.78

-76.51%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 95.79

EUR 95.60

0.20%

EUR 0.19

EUR 114.35

-16.23%

EUR 506.04

-81.07%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 88.60

GBP 88.75

-0.17%

-GBP 0.15

GBP 106.90

-17.12%

GBP 317.47

-72.09%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 99.00

EUR 98.35

0.66%

EUR 0.65

EUR 119.95

-17.46%

EUR 529.97

-81.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 117.40

EUR 116.89

0.44%

EUR 0.51

EUR 133.31

-11.94%

EUR 362.72

-67.63%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$13.73

$13.47

1.94%

$0.26

$14.53

-5.46%

$42.92

-68.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

3

3

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

3

6

697

43

-158

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

18

14

18

664

-41

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

23

27

1,054

133

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

43

5

25

1,915

121

-86

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

35

12

33

1,611

102

-96

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

22

33

2,796

475

44

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-7

-5

1,193

-13

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

8

-1

666

-12

-277

-2.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

28

9

16

1,254

93

-126

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-59

-56

153

-115

-61

-43.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-44

-56

103

-86

-54

-46.00%

-34.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-36

-41

149

-72

-55

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W N Central

39

-24

-11

132

-114

-33

-46.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-17

-28

23

-24

-37

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

10

-18

-26

20

-41

-56

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-3

-3

5

-11

-7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

53

-3

11

144

-95

39

-40.00%

37.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-1

20

85

-49

47

-37.00%

124.00%

 

 

United States

20

-21

-21

84

-58

-23

-41.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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