Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-11-2023

Oct 11, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 11:05 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.298

$3.382

-2.48%

-$0.084

106,346

 

 

WTI

$83.96

$85.97

-2.34%

-$2.01

248,089

 

 

Brent

$85.97

$87.65

-1.92%

-$1.68

25,795

 

 

ULSD

$2.968

$3.020

-1.72%

-$0.052

20,809

 

 

RBOB

$2.214

$2.258

-1.95%

-$0.044

19,273

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.60

$3.52

2.27%

$0.08

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.34

$19.29

0.26%

$0.05

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.92

$37.69

3.27%

$1.23

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/06/23

619

-4

-143

10/07/22

 

 

Canada

10/06/23

180

-11

-35

10/07/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

103,169

101,531

102,274

-743

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,998

87,746

88,125

-379

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

411,082

385,753

399,286

-13,533

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,634

223,274

198,439

24,835

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,793

113,864

114,385

-521

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,486

34,941

35,035

-94

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,673

156,061

156,327

-266

 

 

RBOB

305,128

281,886

289,734

-7,848

 

 

HSC Basis

671,370

657,136

661,294

-4,158

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/05/18

 

 

 

9/29/23

9/22/23

Net Change

% Change

9/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

847

821

26

3.17%

756

12.04%

821

3.22%

 

 

Midwest

991

962

29

3.01%

916

8.19%

966

2.61%

 

 

Mountain

239

234

5

2.14%

184

29.89%

202

18.43%

 

 

Pacific

278

271

7

2.58%

247

12.55%

274

1.39%

 

 

South

1,090

1,071

19

1.77%

1,003

8.67%

1,057

3.08%

 

 

    Salt

259

250

9

3.60%

225

15.11%

254

1.97%

 

 

    Non_Salt

830

821

9

1.10%

778

6.68%

803

3.34%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,359

86

2.56%

3,106

10.91%

3,319

3.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$45.95

$44.93

2.29%

$1.03

$42.41

8.37%

$68.71

-33.11%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$42.97

$41.21

4.26%

$1.76

$38.39

11.94%

$52.64

-18.36%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$65.94

$67.70

-2.61%

-$1.77

$65.99

-0.07%

$75.88

-13.10%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$47.72

$46.60

2.41%

$1.12

$45.69

4.44%

$69.73

-31.56%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$51.24

$50.12

2.24%

$1.12

$59.75

-14.25%

$107.36

-52.28%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$92.98

$93.00

-0.02%

-$0.02

$84.00

10.69%

$96.52

-3.66%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$47.49

$46.68

1.75%

$0.82

$48.96

-3.00%

$66.23

-28.29%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.382

$3.376

0.18%

$0.01

$3.02

12.17%

$5.58

-39.40%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.459

-$0.423

8.61%

-$0.04

-$0.39

17.57%

-$0.44

5.13%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.288

-$0.236

-18.07%

-$0.05

-$0.18

58.93%

-$0.21

36.38%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.892

-$0.870

-2.56%

-$0.02

-$0.94

-5.51%

-$1.79

-50.31%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.483

$0.660

-26.87%

-$0.18

$1.42

-65.96%

$5.05

-90.45%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.148

-$1.202

-4.53%

$0.05

-$0.77

49.29%

-$1.64

-30.17%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.308

$2.661

-13.27%

-$0.35

$2.39

-3.54%

$0.26

785.69%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.693

$0.694

-0.18%

$0.00

$0.79

-12.34%

$0.85

-18.33%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.693

$0.698

-0.72%

-$0.01

$0.79

-12.34%

$0.86

-19.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.280

$0.289

-2.95%

-$0.01

$0.29

-2.13%

$0.33

-14.71%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.560

$1.560

-0.01%

$0.00

$1.72

-9.33%

$1.57

-0.48%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.815

$0.823

-0.91%

-$0.01

$0.95

-13.76%

$0.85

-4.05%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.667

$0.683

-2.21%

-$0.02

$0.81

-17.34%

$0.89

-24.92%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.684

$1.709

-1.50%

-$0.03

$1.76

-4.42%

$1.61

4.35%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$85.97

$86.38

-0.48%

-$0.41

$88.05

-2.36%

$76.70

12.09%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$88.31

$88.90

-0.67%

-$0.59

$92.01

-4.02%

$82.06

7.62%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$19.97

-$19.97

0.00%

$0.00

-$19.27

3.66%

-$17.74

12.59%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$85.71

$86.12

-0.49%

-$0.42

$89.50

-4.24%

$78.65

8.97%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$82.19

$82.28

-0.11%

-$0.09

$87.36

-5.91%

$74.62

10.15%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$84.59

$84.23

0.42%

$0.36

$88.29

-4.19%

$75.16

12.54%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$86.31

$86.90

-0.69%

-$0.59

$90.01

-4.11%

$79.92

7.99%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.01

$2.98

1.07%

$0.03

$3.26

-7.52%

$2.86

5.13%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.26

$2.24

0.85%

$0.02

$2.65

-15.03%

$2.22

1.62%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.16

$2.14

0.89%

$0.02

$2.56

-15.62%

$2.12

1.70%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.80

$2.69

3.94%

$0.11

$2.97

-5.92%

$2.70

3.48%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.05

$2.02

1.24%

$0.03

$2.10

-2.76%

$2.10

-2.66%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$824.83

$800.09

3.09%

$24.74

$868.51

-5.03%

$789.75

4.44%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$109.46

$109.66

-0.18%

-$0.20

$117.59

-6.91%

$100.41

9.01%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

57.80%

59.91%

-3.52%

-2.11%

61.17%

-5.51%

57.77%

0.05%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

78.79%

82.28%

-4.24%

-3.49%

71.71%

9.87%

79.29%

-0.63%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

93.42%

95.91%

-2.60%

-2.49%

86.34%

8.20%

70.59%

32.34%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

69.80%

72.29%

-3.44%

-2.49%

68.69%

1.62%

60.53%

15.31%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

51.47%

59.22%

-13.09%

-7.75%

56.82%

-9.42%

49.09%

4.85%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

232.27%

195.16%

19.02%

37.11%

92.54%

150.99%

50.40%

360.85%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

419.90%

311.67%

34.73%

108.23%

156.97%

167.50%

78.13%

437.44%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/23

10/9/23

% Change

Change

9/12/23

% Change

10/11/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 49.49

EUR 43.12

14.77%

EUR 6.37

EUR 44.37

11.54%

EUR 170.83

-71.03%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 124.98

GBP 107.00

16.81%

GBP 17.98

GBP 110.15

13.46%

GBP 409.74

-69.50%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 119.78

EUR 109.04

9.84%

EUR 10.74

EUR 113.90

5.16%

EUR 507.69

-76.41%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 117.90

GBP 95.91

22.92%

GBP 21.99

GBP 107.06

10.12%

GBP 335.17

-64.82%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 124.84

EUR 110.76

12.71%

EUR 14.08

EUR 124.17

0.54%

EUR 552.62

-77.41%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 145.17

EUR 134.28

8.11%

EUR 10.89

EUR 136.16

6.62%

EUR 374.23

-61.21%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$14.66

$14.64

0.18%

$0.03

$14.35

2.17%

$43.67

-66.42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

3

3

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

3

6

697

43

-158

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

18

14

18

664

-41

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

23

27

1,054

133

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

43

5

25

1,915

121

-86

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

35

12

33

1,611

102

-96

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

22

33

2,796

475

44

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-7

-5

1,193

-13

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

8

-1

666

-12

-277

-2.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

28

9

16

1,254

93

-126

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-59

-56

153

-115

-61

-43.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-44

-56

103

-86

-54

-46.00%

-34.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-36

-41

149

-72

-55

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W N Central

39

-24

-11

132

-114

-33

-46.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-17

-28

23

-24

-37

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

10

-18

-26

20

-41

-56

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-3

-3

5

-11

-7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

53

-3

11

144

-95

39

-40.00%

37.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-1

20

85

-49

47

-37.00%

124.00%

 

 

United States

20

-21

-21

84

-58

-23

-41.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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