Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-11-2024

Oct 11, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:37 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.686

$2.675

0.41%

$0.011

16,466

 

 

WTI

$75.17

$75.85

-0.90%

-$0.68

63,234

 

 

Brent

$78.72

$79.40

-0.86%

-$0.68

11,914

 

 

ULSD

$2.336

$2.351

-0.65%

-$0.015

3,642

 

 

RBOB

$2.141

$2.151

-0.45%

-$0.010

3,307

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.27

$4.29

-0.47%

-$0.02

Dec-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.52

$17.35

0.94%

$0.16

Nov-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.16

$36.77

3.77%

$1.39

Nov-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/04/24

585

-2

-34

10/07/23

 

 

Canada

10/04/24

223

5

43

10/07/23

 

 

International

Sept

947

16

7

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/1/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

91,407

90,971

90,847

124

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

83,216

83,080

82,232

848

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

328,733

314,303

313,938

365

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

263,908

216,410

213,123

3,287

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,452

117,197

118,665

-1,468

 

 

NYM Ethanol

28,691

27,758

28,205

-447

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

171,549

170,817

171,133

-316

 

 

RBOB

324,564

307,812

306,190

1,622

 

 

HSC Basis

880,333

869,837

870,868

-1,031

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/04/19

 

 

 

10/4/24

9/27/24

Net Change

% Change

10/6/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

873

846

27

3.19%

874

-0.11%

850

2.66%

 

 

Midwest

1,041

1,013

28

2.76%

1,021

1.96%

1,012

2.87%

 

 

Mountain

286

283

3

1.06%

244

17.21%

218

31.43%

 

 

Pacific

293

293

0

0.00%

278

5.40%

279

5.09%

 

 

South

1,137

1,113

24

2.16%

1,112

2.25%

1,126

0.99%

 

 

    Salt

275

261

14

5.36%

267

3.00%

277

-0.65%

 

 

    Non_Salt

861

852

9

1.06%

845

1.89%

849

1.44%

 

 

Total

3,629

3,547

82

2.31%

3,529

2.83%

3,484

4.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-24

$43.94

$42.50

3.38%

$1.44

$43.20

1.69%

$48.19

-8.83%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-24

$32.01

$30.32

5.57%

$1.69

$32.08

-0.22%

$36.78

-12.96%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-24

$37.53

$37.05

1.30%

$0.48

$33.21

13.02%

$64.13

-41.47%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-24

$40.51

$39.24

3.24%

$1.27

$41.25

-1.78%

$51.84

-21.85%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-24

$44.85

$48.71

-7.93%

-$3.86

$49.18

-8.81%

$68.94

-34.95%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-24

$62.22

$57.61

8.00%

$4.61

$51.50

20.81%

$86.78

-28.31%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-24

$39.86

$41.66

-4.31%

-$1.79

$43.75

-8.89%

$50.46

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-24

$2.675

$2.660

0.56%

$0.01

$2.63

1.60%

$3.91

-31.55%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-24

-$0.358

-$0.435

-17.62%

$0.08

-$0.60

-40.26%

-$0.32

11.87%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-24

-$0.169

-$0.162

-4.48%

-$0.01

-$0.28

-38.59%

-$0.25

-30.99%

 

 

Waha

Nov-24

-$0.978

-$1.033

-5.35%

$0.06

-$1.05

-7.03%

-$0.61

60.77%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-24

$0.722

$0.818

-11.67%

-$0.10

$0.86

-16.25%

$2.58

-71.98%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-24

-$1.199

-$1.249

-4.03%

$0.05

-$1.20

0.10%

-$1.16

3.16%

 

 

Socal

Nov-24

$0.395

$0.483

-18.29%

-$0.09

$0.24

67.77%

$1.51

-73.86%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-24

$0.777

$0.795

-2.35%

-$0.02

$0.69

12.35%

$0.73

6.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-24

$0.800

$0.810

-1.24%

-$0.01

$0.71

12.29%

$0.72

10.54%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-24

$0.219

$0.225

-2.80%

-$0.01

$0.18

19.88%

$0.27

-18.67%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.570

$1.518

3.45%

$0.05

$1.45

8.63%

$1.47

7.13%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-24

$1.128

$1.114

1.32%

$0.01

$0.91

23.87%

$0.85

33.12%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-24

$6.724

$6.765

-0.61%

-$0.04

$6.27

7.32%

$5.54

21.45%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-24

$6.340

$6.340

0.00%

$0.00

$6.05

4.79%

$5.07

24.93%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-24

$75.85

$73.24

3.44%

$2.61

$68.15

11.30%

$75.63

0.29%

 

 

Brent

Nov-24

$79.67

$76.80

3.60%

$2.87

$71.97

10.69%

$80.09

-0.53%

 

 

WCS

Nov-24

-$12.72

-$12.44

2.16%

-$0.27

-$12.82

-0.76%

-$14.16

-10.16%

 

 

LLS

Nov-24

$77.52

$75.04

3.20%

$2.48

$69.63

11.33%

$77.44

0.10%

 

 

Mars

Nov-24

$73.68

$71.46

3.02%

$2.22

$66.68

10.51%

$74.26

-0.78%

 

 

Sour

Nov-24

$75.14

$72.66

3.30%

$2.48

$68.34

9.96%

$74.87

0.36%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-24

$77.67

$74.80

3.69%

$2.87

$69.97

11.00%

$78.09

-0.54%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-24

$2.35

$2.28

2.89%

$0.07

$2.14

9.86%

$2.61

-9.79%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-24

$2.15

$2.07

3.86%

$0.08

$1.91

12.48%

$2.11

1.89%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-24

$2.05

$1.97

4.05%

$0.08

$1.82

13.17%

$2.01

1.99%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-24

$2.18

$2.13

2.49%

$0.05

$1.97

10.61%

$2.42

-9.85%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-24

$1.55

$1.56

-0.77%

-$0.01

$1.65

-6.12%

$1.82

-15.13%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-24

$655.92

$647.22

1.34%

$8.70

$604.26

8.55%

$742.40

-11.65%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-24

$89.57

$90.05

-0.53%

-$0.48

$83.50

7.26%

$101.53

-11.78%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-24

60.47%

61.79%

-2.14%

-1.32%

52.15%

15.95%

47.81%

26.48%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-24

78.24%

81.09%

-3.51%

-2.85%

96.95%

-19.30%

57.65%

35.72%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-24

113.67%

121.39%

-6.36%

-7.72%

128.19%

-11.33%

57.98%

96.05%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-24

66.66%

69.71%

-4.38%

-3.05%

63.00%

5.81%

49.88%

33.64%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-24

48.14%

52.08%

-7.57%

-3.94%

41.51%

15.97%

40.02%

20.29%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-24

244.86%

237.63%

3.04%

7.23%

252.30%

-2.95%

38.34%

538.65%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-24

161.07%

148.99%

8.11%

12.08%

134.03%

20.17%

73.52%

119.08%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-24

EUR 40.08

EUR 38.55

3.97%

EUR 1.53

EUR 37.03

8.26%

EUR 53.09

-24.50%

 

 

NBP

Nov-24

GBP 100.15

GBP 96.27

4.04%

GBP 3.89

GBP 92.85

7.87%

GBP 135.73

-26.21%

 

 

German Base

Nov-24

EUR 88.92

EUR 86.15

3.21%

EUR 2.76

EUR 89.50

-0.65%

EUR 143.18

-37.89%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-24

GBP 83.86

GBP 84.45

-0.69%

-GBP 0.58

GBP 81.66

2.70%

GBP 127.72

-34.34%

 

 

French Base

Nov-24

EUR 75.17

EUR 74.39

1.05%

EUR 0.78

EUR 83.48

-9.95%

EUR 161.36

-53.41%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-24

EUR 119.79

EUR 115.00

4.16%

EUR 4.78

EUR 113.12

5.90%

EUR 157.32

-23.86%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-24

$13.57

$12.75

6.50%

$0.83

$13.07

3.85%

$17.27

-21.38%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/10/24

10/9/24

% Change

Change

9/12/24

% Change

10/11/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Nov-24

$40.08

$38.55

3.97%

$1.53

$37.03

8.26%

$53.09

-24.50%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Nov-24

$100.15

$96.27

4.04%

$3.89

$92.85

7.87%

$135.73

-26.21%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Nov-24

$88.92

$86.15

3.21%

$2.76

$89.50

-0.65%

$143.18

-37.89%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Nov-24

$83.86

$84.45

-0.69%

-$0.58

$81.66

2.70%

$127.72

-34.34%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Nov-24

$75.17

$74.39

1.05%

$0.78

$83.48

-9.95%

$161.36

-53.41%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$119.79

$115.00

4.16%

$4.78

$113.12

5.90%

$157.32

-23.86%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$13.57

$12.75

6.50%

$0.83

$13.07

3.85%

$17.27

-21.38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/05/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

-2

567

150

17

36.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-4

-5

767

113

70

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E N Central

6

2

-15

775

71

112

10.00%

17.00%

 

 

W N Central

15

8

-30

988

68

-67

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

59

18

12

2,006

220

95

12.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

41

16

-5

1,762

259

151

17.00%

9.00%

 

 

W S Central

73

23

-16

2,590

280

-204

12.00%

-7.00%

 

 

Mountain

48

24

32

1,356

155

167

13.00%

14.00%

 

 

Pacific

50

33

42

867

192

208

28.00%

32.00%

 

 

United States

34

13

3

1,322

166

71

14.00%

6.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/05/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

39

-34

5

158

-86

9

-35.00%

7.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

25

-32

4

79

-91

-17

-54.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

28

-32

17

125

-75

-1

-37.00%

-1.00%

 

 

W N Central

32

-27

22

120

-107

19

-47.00%

19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-19

-4

11

-29

-10

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

3

-22

2

16

-36

5

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

-5

0

3

-10

2

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

25

-28

-22

90

-132

-39

-59.00%

-30.00%

 

 

Pacific

18

-7

-17

76

-50

-7

-40.00%

-10.00%

 

 

United States

17

-21

1

68

-61

-6

-47.00%

-8.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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