Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-12-2023

Oct 12, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:21 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.334

$3.377

-1.27%

-$0.043

27,711

 

 

WTI

$85.14

$83.49

1.98%

$1.65

93,477

 

 

Brent

$87.55

$85.82

2.02%

$1.73

10,705

 

 

ULSD

$3.036

$2.999

1.24%

$0.037

6,691

 

 

RBOB

$2.221

$2.210

0.51%

$0.011

6,038

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.87

$3.75

3.20%

$0.12

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.32

$20.12

-3.99%

-$0.80

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.36

$38.73

-0.95%

-$0.37

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/06/23

619

-4

-143

10/07/22

 

 

Canada

10/06/23

180

-11

-35

10/07/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

103,169

101,531

102,274

-743

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,998

87,746

88,125

-379

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

411,082

385,753

399,286

-13,533

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,634

223,274

198,439

24,835

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,793

113,864

114,385

-521

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,486

34,941

35,035

-94

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,673

156,061

156,327

-266

 

 

RBOB

305,128

281,886

289,734

-7,848

 

 

HSC Basis

671,370

657,136

661,294

-4,158

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/05/18

 

 

 

9/29/23

9/22/23

Net Change

% Change

9/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

847

821

26

3.17%

756

12.04%

821

3.22%

 

 

Midwest

991

962

29

3.01%

916

8.19%

966

2.61%

 

 

Mountain

239

234

5

2.14%

184

29.89%

202

18.43%

 

 

Pacific

278

271

7

2.58%

247

12.55%

274

1.39%

 

 

South

1,090

1,071

19

1.77%

1,003

8.67%

1,057

3.08%

 

 

    Salt

259

250

9

3.60%

225

15.11%

254

1.97%

 

 

    Non_Salt

830

821

9

1.10%

778

6.68%

803

3.34%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,359

86

2.56%

3,106

10.91%

3,319

3.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$45.49

$45.95

-1.01%

-$0.46

$43.02

5.75%

$69.23

-34.29%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$41.10

$42.97

-4.35%

-$1.87

$38.25

7.46%

$53.82

-23.63%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$63.29

$65.94

-4.02%

-$2.65

$65.67

-3.62%

$76.80

-17.60%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$46.49

$47.72

-2.58%

-$1.23

$46.44

0.11%

$70.24

-33.81%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$50.17

$51.24

-2.08%

-$1.07

$55.72

-9.96%

$111.17

-54.87%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$87.03

$92.98

-6.40%

-$5.95

$88.20

-1.32%

$96.24

-9.57%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$45.55

$47.49

-4.08%

-$1.94

$48.90

-6.84%

$68.80

-33.79%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.377

$3.382

-0.15%

$0.00

$2.99

13.06%

$5.57

-39.33%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.465

-$0.459

1.33%

-$0.01

-$0.45

2.42%

-$0.42

11.59%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.307

-$0.288

-6.21%

-$0.02

-$0.21

49.51%

-$0.22

42.91%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.883

-$0.892

-1.02%

$0.01

-$1.00

-11.49%

-$1.73

-48.95%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.817

$0.483

69.25%

$0.33

$1.37

-40.18%

$5.05

-83.82%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.220

-$1.148

6.35%

-$0.07

-$0.85

43.57%

-$1.67

-27.09%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.171

$2.308

-5.94%

-$0.14

$2.54

-14.51%

$0.26

719.52%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.695

$0.693

0.36%

$0.00

$0.78

-10.47%

$0.84

-17.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.695

$0.693

0.36%

$0.00

$0.78

-10.90%

$0.87

-20.48%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.283

$0.280

0.84%

$0.00

$0.29

-0.96%

$0.33

-15.05%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.552

$1.560

-0.48%

-$0.01

$1.71

-9.26%

$1.59

-2.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.820

$0.815

0.60%

$0.00

$0.92

-11.24%

$0.83

-1.28%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.678

$0.667

1.50%

$0.01

$0.78

-13.23%

$0.87

-22.51%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.672

$1.684

-0.68%

-$0.01

$1.76

-5.19%

$1.63

2.74%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$82.07

$84.13

-2.51%

-$2.06

$87.11

-5.79%

$74.89

9.59%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$85.82

$87.65

-2.13%

-$1.83

$91.20

-5.90%

$80.22

6.98%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$20.59

-$21.10

-2.46%

$0.51

-$20.55

0.23%

-$20.33

1.30%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$82.54

$84.24

-2.06%

-$1.70

$88.45

-6.67%

$79.51

3.81%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$79.89

$81.14

-1.56%

-$1.25

$86.10

-7.21%

$75.43

5.91%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$81.72

$83.17

-1.77%

-$1.44

$86.98

-6.04%

$75.87

7.72%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$83.82

$85.65

-2.18%

-$1.83

$89.20

-6.03%

$77.21

8.56%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.01

$3.01

-0.07%

$0.00

$3.35

-10.04%

$2.93

2.84%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.21

$2.26

-2.08%

-$0.05

$2.66

-17.11%

$2.17

1.94%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.11

$2.16

-2.18%

-$0.05

$2.57

-17.78%

$2.07

2.03%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.72

$2.80

-2.61%

-$0.07

$3.05

-10.69%

$2.66

2.56%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$2.05

-1.27%

-$0.03

$2.11

-4.31%

$2.11

-4.13%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$822.52

$824.83

-0.28%

-$2.31

$898.23

-8.43%

$829.97

-0.90%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$111.95

$109.46

2.27%

$2.49

$118.10

-5.21%

$108.00

3.66%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

55.93%

57.80%

-3.24%

-1.87%

63.44%

-11.84%

59.70%

-6.31%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

81.23%

78.79%

3.10%

2.44%

73.57%

10.41%

80.62%

0.76%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

94.78%

93.42%

1.46%

1.36%

87.70%

8.07%

74.15%

27.82%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

66.91%

69.80%

-4.14%

-2.89%

68.93%

-2.93%

62.59%

6.90%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

50.87%

51.47%

-1.17%

-0.60%

59.40%

-14.36%

49.54%

2.68%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

191.63%

232.27%

-17.50%

-40.64%

109.88%

74.40%

56.26%

240.62%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

406.61%

419.90%

-3.17%

-13.29%

167.76%

142.38%

80.53%

404.92%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/11/23

10/10/23

% Change

Change

9/13/23

% Change

10/12/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 46.52

EUR 49.49

-6.00%

-EUR 2.97

EUR 47.25

-1.56%

EUR 165.58

-71.91%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 116.68

GBP 124.98

-6.64%

-GBP 8.30

GBP 116.90

-0.20%

GBP 405.47

-71.22%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 115.03

EUR 119.78

-3.97%

-EUR 4.75

EUR 119.13

-3.44%

EUR 507.58

-77.34%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 111.79

GBP 117.90

-5.18%

-GBP 6.10

GBP 104.87

6.60%

GBP 326.77

-65.79%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 122.81

EUR 124.84

-1.63%

-EUR 2.04

EUR 124.61

-1.44%

EUR 526.08

-76.66%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 144.05

EUR 145.17

-0.77%

-EUR 1.12

EUR 132.40

8.81%

EUR 383.20

-62.41%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$14.12

$14.66

-3.69%

-$0.54

$14.63

-3.43%

$45.33

-68.84%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

3

3

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

3

6

697

43

-158

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

18

14

18

664

-41

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

23

27

1,054

133

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

43

5

25

1,915

121

-86

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

35

12

33

1,611

102

-96

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

22

33

2,796

475

44

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-7

-5

1,193

-13

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

8

-1

666

-12

-277

-2.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

28

9

16

1,254

93

-126

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-59

-56

153

-115

-61

-43.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-44

-56

103

-86

-54

-46.00%

-34.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-36

-41

149

-72

-55

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W N Central

39

-24

-11

132

-114

-33

-46.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-17

-28

23

-24

-37

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

10

-18

-26

20

-41

-56

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-3

-3

5

-11

-7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

53

-3

11

144

-95

39

-40.00%

37.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-1

20

85

-49

47

-37.00%

124.00%

 

 

United States

20

-21

-21

84

-58

-23

-41.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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