Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-13-2023

Oct 13, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.272

$3.344

-2.15%

-$0.072

25,866

 

 

WTI

$86.18

$82.91

3.94%

$3.27

109,380

 

 

Brent

$89.22

$86.00

3.74%

$3.22

13,220

 

 

ULSD

$3.160

$3.045

3.76%

$0.115

11,427

 

 

RBOB

$2.237

$2.165

3.33%

$0.072

7,007

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.28

$4.20

1.90%

$0.08

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$19.98

$19.64

1.76%

$0.35

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.38

$38.34

0.12%

$0.05

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/06/23

619

-4

-143

10/07/22

 

 

Canada

10/06/23

180

-11

-35

10/07/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

103,169

101,531

102,274

-743

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,998

87,746

88,125

-379

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

411,082

385,753

399,286

-13,533

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,634

223,274

198,439

24,835

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,793

113,864

114,385

-521

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,486

34,941

35,035

-94

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,673

156,061

156,327

-266

 

 

RBOB

305,128

281,886

289,734

-7,848

 

 

HSC Basis

671,370

657,136

661,294

-4,158

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/12/18

 

 

 

10/6/23

9/29/23

Net Change

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

874

847

27

3.19%

782

11.76%

843

3.65%

 

 

Midwest

1,021

991

30

3.03%

952

7.25%

996

2.47%

 

 

Mountain

244

239

5

2.09%

190

28.42%

205

19.26%

 

 

Pacific

278

278

0

0.00%

249

11.65%

276

0.72%

 

 

South

1,112

1,090

22

2.02%

1,058

5.10%

1,087

2.34%

 

 

    Salt

267

259

8

3.09%

253

5.53%

267

-0.15%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

830

15

1.81%

804

5.10%

819

3.20%

 

 

Total

3,529

3,445

84

2.44%

3,231

9.22%

3,407

3.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$45.39

$45.49

-0.22%

-$0.10

$43.08

5.37%

$67.54

-32.80%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$39.72

$41.10

-3.37%

-$1.38

$40.28

-1.39%

$52.33

-24.10%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$65.09

$63.29

2.85%

$1.80

$71.25

-8.65%

$76.60

-15.03%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$46.13

$46.49

-0.77%

-$0.36

$46.30

-0.35%

$68.53

-32.69%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$51.15

$50.17

1.95%

$0.98

$55.36

-7.60%

$105.81

-51.66%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$88.70

$87.03

1.92%

$1.67

$90.12

-1.57%

$97.55

-9.07%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$45.75

$45.55

0.42%

$0.19

$48.42

-5.53%

$67.64

-32.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.344

$3.377

-0.98%

-$0.03

$2.98

12.10%

$5.60

-40.26%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.522

-$0.465

12.25%

-$0.06

-$0.47

11.30%

-$0.40

31.44%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.343

-$0.307

-10.51%

-$0.04

-$0.24

45.61%

-$0.20

69.97%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.966

-$0.883

-9.45%

-$0.08

-$0.93

3.70%

-$1.66

-41.78%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.750

$0.817

-8.17%

-$0.07

$1.40

-46.25%

$5.19

-85.54%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.220

-$1.220

-0.06%

$0.00

-$0.77

59.12%

-$1.72

-28.94%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$1.905

$2.171

-12.24%

-$0.27

$2.84

-32.91%

$0.28

587.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.695

$0.695

0.00%

$0.00

$0.79

-12.58%

$0.83

-16.30%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.695

$0.695

-0.05%

$0.00

$0.79

-12.47%

$0.83

-16.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.288

$0.283

1.81%

$0.01

$0.28

0.92%

$0.33

-12.35%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.558

$1.552

0.38%

$0.01

$1.74

-10.35%

$1.56

-0.05%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.820

$0.820

0.00%

$0.00

$0.94

-13.10%

$0.84

-1.93%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.680

$0.678

0.37%

$0.00

$0.80

-14.59%

$0.87

-21.99%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.678

$1.672

0.37%

$0.01

$1.81

-7.13%

$1.59

5.33%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$81.80

$82.07

-0.33%

-$0.27

$88.81

-7.89%

$76.33

7.17%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$86.00

$85.82

0.21%

$0.18

$92.94

-7.47%

$81.82

5.11%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$20.81

-$20.59

1.04%

-$0.22

-$20.51

1.48%

-$20.33

2.34%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$84.08

$82.54

1.82%

$1.53

$90.27

-6.86%

$78.29

7.39%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$79.26

$79.89

-0.80%

-$0.63

$87.96

-9.90%

$74.00

7.10%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$80.29

$81.72

-1.79%

-$1.43

$89.01

-9.80%

$74.59

7.64%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$84.00

$83.82

0.21%

$0.18

$90.94

-7.63%

$77.23

8.76%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.05

$3.01

1.23%

$0.04

$3.39

-10.15%

$2.96

2.80%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.18

$2.21

-1.45%

-$0.03

$2.68

-18.86%

$2.22

-2.03%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.08

$2.11

-1.52%

-$0.03

$2.58

-19.59%

$2.12

-2.12%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.74

$2.72

0.55%

$0.02

$3.10

-11.58%

$2.79

-1.72%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$2.02

0.00%

$0.00

$2.13

-4.99%

$2.13

-5.08%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$823.08

$822.52

0.07%

$0.56

$898.65

-8.41%

$808.08

1.86%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$110.70

$111.95

-1.11%

-$1.25

$122.31

-9.49%

$107.85

2.64%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

56.11%

55.93%

0.32%

0.18%

64.15%

-12.53%

55.07%

1.89%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

86.81%

81.23%

6.87%

5.58%

71.64%

21.18%

74.74%

16.15%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

89.99%

94.78%

-5.05%

-4.79%

94.54%

-4.81%

71.59%

25.70%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

67.78%

66.91%

1.30%

0.87%

71.86%

-5.68%

57.90%

17.06%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

53.12%

50.87%

4.42%

2.25%

59.61%

-10.89%

49.29%

7.77%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

186.47%

191.63%

-2.69%

-5.16%

117.05%

59.31%

52.33%

256.33%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

377.79%

406.61%

-7.09%

-28.82%

174.04%

117.07%

91.78%

311.63%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/12/23

10/11/23

% Change

Change

9/14/23

% Change

10/13/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 53.26

EUR 46.52

14.49%

EUR 6.74

EUR 44.64

19.32%

EUR 154.81

-65.60%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 134.59

GBP 116.68

15.35%

GBP 17.91

GBP 109.91

22.45%

GBP 378.68

-64.46%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 123.61

EUR 115.03

7.47%

EUR 8.59

EUR 115.22

7.29%

EUR 502.85

-75.42%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 111.88

GBP 111.79

0.07%

GBP 0.08

GBP 107.85

3.73%

GBP 332.10

-66.31%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 123.48

EUR 122.81

0.55%

EUR 0.67

EUR 123.35

0.11%

EUR 539.83

-77.13%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 147.48

EUR 144.05

2.38%

EUR 3.43

EUR 135.63

8.74%

EUR 353.87

-58.32%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.62

$14.12

10.58%

$1.49

$14.70

6.20%

$38.88

-59.83%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

3

3

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

3

6

697

43

-158

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

18

14

18

664

-41

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

23

27

1,054

133

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

43

5

25

1,915

121

-86

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

35

12

33

1,611

102

-96

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

22

33

2,796

475

44

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-7

-5

1,193

-13

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

8

-1

666

-12

-277

-2.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

28

9

16

1,254

93

-126

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-59

-56

153

-115

-61

-43.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-44

-56

103

-86

-54

-46.00%

-34.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-36

-41

149

-72

-55

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W N Central

39

-24

-11

132

-114

-33

-46.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-17

-28

23

-24

-37

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

10

-18

-26

20

-41

-56

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-3

-3

5

-11

-7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

53

-3

11

144

-95

39

-40.00%

37.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-1

20

85

-49

47

-37.00%

124.00%

 

 

United States

20

-21

-21

84

-58

-23

-41.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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