Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-16-2023

Oct 16, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:59 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.086

$3.236

-4.64%

-$0.150

43,011

 

 

WTI

$87.17

$87.69

-0.59%

-$0.52

98,150

 

 

Brent

$90.34

$90.89

-0.61%

-$0.55

10,549

 

 

ULSD

$3.212

$3.212

0.01%

$0.000

11,300

 

 

RBOB

$2.269

$2.265

0.18%

$0.004

6,492

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.52

$4.54

-0.44%

-$0.02

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.40

$19.86

2.73%

$0.54

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.69

$38.47

-2.01%

-$0.78

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/13/23

622

3

-147

10/14/22

 

 

Canada

10/13/23

193

13

-23

10/14/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/10/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,824

96,479

96,520

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,325

83,765

83,840

-75

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,444

395,147

407,393

-12,246

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

278,250

229,435

204,168

25,267

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

120,357

113,588

112,492

1,096

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,193

36,678

36,748

-70

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

141,548

140,933

141,109

-176

 

 

RBOB

304,452

282,212

287,662

-5,450

 

 

HSC Basis

624,872

619,333

618,139

1,194

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/12/18

 

 

 

10/6/23

9/29/23

Net Change

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

874

847

27

3.19%

782

11.76%

843

3.65%

 

 

Midwest

1,021

991

30

3.03%

952

7.25%

996

2.47%

 

 

Mountain

244

239

5

2.09%

190

28.42%

205

19.26%

 

 

Pacific

278

278

0

0.00%

249

11.65%

276

0.72%

 

 

South

1,112

1,090

22

2.02%

1,058

5.10%

1,087

2.34%

 

 

    Salt

267

259

8

3.09%

253

5.53%

267

-0.15%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

830

15

1.81%

804

5.10%

819

3.20%

 

 

Total

3,529

3,445

84

2.44%

3,231

9.22%

3,407

3.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$44.29

$45.39

-2.43%

-$1.10

$42.50

4.19%

$69.71

-36.48%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$38.44

$39.72

-3.21%

-$1.27

$41.25

-6.79%

$53.63

-28.32%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$67.67

$65.09

3.96%

$2.58

$69.55

-2.70%

$78.17

-13.44%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$45.11

$46.13

-2.22%

-$1.02

$45.19

-0.19%

$70.73

-36.22%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$50.88

$51.15

-0.52%

-$0.26

$53.97

-5.73%

$106.59

-52.26%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$87.57

$88.70

-1.28%

-$1.13

$87.64

-0.08%

$99.21

-11.73%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$45.74

$45.75

-0.01%

-$0.01

$49.00

-6.64%

$69.22

-33.92%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.236

$3.344

-3.23%

-$0.11

$2.93

10.37%

$5.57

-41.90%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.551

-$0.522

5.59%

-$0.03

-$0.45

22.70%

-$0.39

40.91%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.381

-$0.343

-9.89%

-$0.04

-$0.27

42.08%

-$0.22

77.14%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$1.055

-$0.966

-9.23%

-$0.09

-$0.90

17.25%

-$1.73

-38.82%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.658

$0.750

-12.35%

-$0.09

$1.23

-46.47%

$5.05

-86.98%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.203

-$1.220

-1.35%

$0.02

-$0.70

71.61%

-$1.65

-26.96%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$1.878

$1.905

-1.44%

-$0.03

$2.82

-33.50%

$0.27

584.54%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.710

$0.695

2.16%

$0.02

$0.78

-9.41%

$0.81

-12.77%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.705

$0.695

1.49%

$0.01

$0.79

-10.76%

$0.81

-12.95%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.290

$0.288

0.84%

$0.00

$0.29

-1.27%

$0.32

-9.74%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.574

$1.558

1.00%

$0.02

$1.76

-10.66%

$1.60

-1.52%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.835

$0.820

1.82%

$0.01

$0.94

-11.43%

$0.87

-4.31%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.693

$0.680

1.84%

$0.01

$0.79

-12.34%

$0.84

-17.57%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.647

$1.678

-1.85%

-$0.03

$1.82

-9.53%

$1.64

0.55%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$86.35

$81.80

5.27%

$4.55

$88.97

-2.94%

$74.31

16.20%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$90.89

$86.00

5.38%

$4.89

$93.04

-2.31%

$79.81

13.88%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$23.07

-$20.81

9.79%

-$2.26

-$20.30

13.62%

-$19.26

19.77%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$85.90

$84.08

2.13%

$1.83

$90.25

-4.81%

$75.40

13.94%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$83.00

$79.26

4.51%

$3.74

$87.88

-5.56%

$71.29

16.42%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$84.31

$80.29

4.76%

$4.01

$89.12

-5.40%

$71.96

17.15%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$88.89

$84.00

5.50%

$4.89

$91.04

-2.36%

$78.53

13.19%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.21

$3.05

5.45%

$0.17

$3.32

-3.14%

$2.92

10.08%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.26

$2.18

3.90%

$0.09

$2.56

-11.68%

$2.19

3.33%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.16

$2.08

4.09%

$0.09

$2.46

-12.15%

$2.09

3.49%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.88

$2.74

5.29%

$0.14

$2.95

-2.37%

$3.05

-5.32%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.04

$2.02

0.74%

$0.02

$2.10

-3.28%

$2.16

-6.00%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$863.02

$823.08

4.85%

$39.94

$882.28

-2.18%

$809.99

6.55%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$112.81

$110.70

1.91%

$2.11

$121.81

-7.39%

$105.01

7.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

54.24%

56.11%

-3.33%

-1.87%

63.92%

-15.14%

61.11%

-11.24%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

83.10%

86.81%

-4.27%

-3.71%

78.99%

5.20%

82.78%

0.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

92.94%

89.99%

3.28%

2.95%

87.40%

6.34%

74.53%

24.70%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

66.89%

67.78%

-1.31%

-0.89%

74.03%

-9.64%

64.18%

4.22%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

49.17%

53.12%

-7.44%

-3.95%

59.64%

-17.56%

49.71%

-1.09%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

150.19%

186.47%

-19.46%

-36.28%

122.04%

23.07%

57.65%

160.52%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

258.46%

377.79%

-31.59%

-119.33%

183.97%

40.49%

92.72%

178.75%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/13/23

10/12/23

% Change

Change

9/15/23

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 55.29

EUR 53.26

3.81%

EUR 2.03

EUR 45.15

22.45%

EUR 156.81

-64.74%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 139.04

GBP 134.59

3.30%

GBP 4.45

GBP 111.38

24.83%

GBP 393.72

-64.69%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 123.82

EUR 123.61

0.17%

EUR 0.20

EUR 113.33

9.25%

EUR 505.43

-75.50%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 118.37

GBP 111.88

5.80%

GBP 6.49

GBP 109.80

7.80%

GBP 333.02

-64.46%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 135.01

EUR 123.48

9.33%

EUR 11.52

EUR 122.07

10.60%

EUR 550.14

-75.46%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 149.91

EUR 147.48

1.64%

EUR 2.43

EUR 133.69

12.13%

EUR 341.07

-56.05%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.19

$15.62

-2.71%

-$0.42

$14.50

4.78%

$38.51

-60.55%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

697

41

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-2

0

664

-43

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

1,054

129

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

22

-9

-4

1,936

111

-90

6.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

1

-14

-2

1,612

88

-98

6.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

-8

-15

2,825

469

29

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

2

-1

1,210

-11

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-4

-12

673

-16

-289

-2.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

9

-5

-4

1,263

88

-130

7.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

84

-11

-2

237

-125

-63

-35.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

84

5

6

187

-81

-47

-30.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

98

16

4

247

-56

-51

-18.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W N Central

91

11

2

223

-103

-31

-32.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

36

6

2

59

-18

-35

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

44

5

-4

64

-35

-60

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

17

5

11

22

-5

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

63

-6

14

207

-101

53

-33.00%

34.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-9

18

111

-57

65

-34.00%

141.00%

 

 

United States

57

3

7

141

-55

-16

-28.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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