Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-16-2024

Oct 16, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:12 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.463

$2.498

-1.40%

-$0.035

10,613

 

 

WTI

$70.11

$70.58

-0.67%

-$0.47

46,065

 

 

Brent

$73.77

$74.25

-0.65%

-$0.48

8,141

 

 

ULSD

$2.175

$2.188

-0.57%

-$0.013

2,491

 

 

RBOB

$2.033

$2.038

-0.23%

-$0.005

2,307

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.23

$4.24

-0.24%

-$0.01

Dec-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$17.20

$17.00

1.19%

$0.20

Nov-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.76

$35.60

3.25%

$1.16

Nov-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/11/24

586

1

-36

10/14/23

 

 

Canada

10/11/24

223

-4

26

10/14/23

 

 

International

Sept

947

16

7

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/8/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

81,941

81,543

81,432

111

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

75,860

75,728

74,919

809

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

334,559

319,947

319,561

386

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

273,236

224,978

223,036

1,942

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

145,400

136,971

137,921

-950

 

 

NYM Ethanol

31,107

30,151

30,389

-238

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,317

150,490

150,879

-389

 

 

RBOB

322,339

303,962

304,903

-941

 

 

HSC Basis

798,226

788,765

787,437

1,328

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/04/19

 

 

 

10/4/24

9/27/24

Net Change

% Change

10/6/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

873

846

27

3.19%

874

-0.11%

850

2.66%

 

 

Midwest

1,041

1,013

28

2.76%

1,021

1.96%

1,012

2.87%

 

 

Mountain

286

283

3

1.06%

244

17.21%

218

31.43%

 

 

Pacific

293

293

0

0.00%

278

5.40%

279

5.09%

 

 

South

1,137

1,113

24

2.16%

1,112

2.25%

1,126

0.99%

 

 

    Salt

275

261

14

5.36%

267

3.00%

277

-0.65%

 

 

    Non_Salt

861

852

9

1.06%

845

1.89%

849

1.44%

 

 

Total

3,629

3,547

82

2.31%

3,529

2.83%

3,484

4.16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-24

$42.00

$40.95

2.57%

$1.05

$42.28

-0.66%

$48.28

-13.00%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-24

$28.98

$28.20

2.75%

$0.78

$34.30

-15.51%

$38.39

-24.51%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-24

$38.50

$38.50

0.00%

$0.00

$34.04

13.11%

$67.16

-42.67%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-24

$38.39

$37.64

1.98%

$0.74

$40.23

-4.58%

$51.47

-25.42%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-24

$44.61

$46.88

-4.85%

-$2.27

$49.26

-9.45%

$73.76

-39.53%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-24

$63.12

$63.50

-0.60%

-$0.38

$55.13

14.49%

$91.75

-31.21%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-24

$39.89

$39.68

0.53%

$0.21

$42.67

-6.49%

$54.41

-26.68%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-24

$2.498

$2.494

0.16%

$0.00

$2.61

-4.40%

$3.88

-35.64%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-24

-$0.338

-$0.324

4.35%

-$0.01

-$0.47

-28.58%

-$0.35

-3.18%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-24

-$0.109

-$0.120

10.19%

$0.01

-$0.23

-52.84%

-$0.25

-55.95%

 

 

Waha

Nov-24

-$1.672

-$1.631

-2.51%

-$0.04

-$0.87

92.08%

-$0.65

156.24%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-24

$0.705

$0.644

9.45%

$0.06

$0.79

-10.85%

$2.46

-71.31%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-24

-$1.046

-$1.138

-8.02%

$0.09

-$1.26

-17.01%

-$1.14

-7.98%

 

 

Socal

Nov-24

$0.784

$0.737

6.43%

$0.05

$0.25

217.31%

$1.62

-51.47%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-24

$0.736

$0.769

-4.31%

-$0.03

$0.73

0.77%

$0.74

-0.95%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-24

$0.755

$0.788

-4.11%

-$0.03

$0.74

2.74%

$0.73

2.78%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-24

$0.220

$0.215

2.34%

$0.01

$0.20

10.01%

$0.28

-20.63%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.479

$1.566

-5.56%

-$0.09

$1.47

0.37%

$1.50

-1.36%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-24

$1.174

$1.140

2.95%

$0.03

$0.98

19.53%

$0.86

35.89%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-24

$6.570

$6.700

-1.94%

-$0.13

$6.40

2.65%

$5.65

16.33%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-24

$6.250

$6.310

-0.95%

-$0.06

$6.09

2.69%

$5.24

19.22%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-24

$70.01

$73.24

-4.61%

-$3.23

$69.17

1.21%

$77.44

-9.59%

 

 

Brent

Dec-24

$74.25

$77.46

-4.32%

-$3.21

$73.01

1.70%

$82.14

-9.61%

 

 

WCS

Dec-24

-$12.26

-$12.48

-1.79%

$0.22

-$14.93

-17.90%

-$15.22

-19.46%

 

 

LLS

Dec-24

$71.67

$74.77

-4.32%

-$3.10

$70.27

1.99%

$78.91

-9.17%

 

 

Mars

Dec-24

$68.67

$71.44

-4.04%

-$2.77

$67.45

1.81%

$75.72

-9.31%

 

 

Sour

Dec-24

$70.45

$73.27

-4.01%

-$2.83

$69.42

1.49%

$76.17

-7.51%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-24

$72.25

$75.46

-4.44%

-$3.21

$71.01

1.75%

$80.14

-9.85%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-24

$2.20

$2.28

-3.43%

-$0.08

$2.16

1.81%

$2.72

-19.18%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-24

$2.05

$2.11

-2.94%

-$0.06

$1.98

3.64%

$2.16

-5.36%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.95

$2.01

-3.08%

-$0.06

$1.88

3.84%

$2.06

-5.62%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-24

$2.01

$2.13

-5.50%

-$0.12

$1.97

2.34%

$2.52

-20.25%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-24

$1.50

$1.53

-1.64%

-$0.02

$1.63

-7.57%

$1.81

-17.15%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-24

$615.65

$650.78

-5.40%

-$35.13

$614.65

0.16%

$781.63

-21.23%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-24

$86.36

$91.06

-5.15%

-$4.69

$83.40

3.55%

$104.11

-17.04%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-24

60.32%

65.57%

-8.01%

-5.25%

57.14%

5.57%

46.56%

29.55%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-24

69.49%

72.88%

-4.65%

-3.39%

97.82%

-28.96%

58.44%

18.91%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-24

214.82%

223.77%

-4.00%

-8.95%

134.58%

59.62%

53.09%

304.63%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-24

63.71%

71.68%

-11.12%

-7.97%

63.37%

0.54%

49.29%

29.26%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-24

47.12%

49.69%

-5.17%

-2.57%

43.69%

7.85%

40.46%

16.46%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-24

269.93%

257.74%

4.73%

12.19%

252.92%

6.73%

40.40%

568.14%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-24

158.98%

152.89%

3.98%

6.09%

137.64%

15.50%

74.90%

112.26%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-24

EUR 40.13

EUR 40.58

-1.10%

-EUR 0.45

EUR 37.21

7.84%

EUR 56.31

-28.73%

 

 

NBP

Nov-24

GBP 99.29

GBP 100.80

-1.49%

-GBP 1.50

GBP 93.07

6.68%

GBP 144.39

-31.23%

 

 

German Base

Nov-24

EUR 90.16

EUR 90.87

-0.78%

-EUR 0.71

EUR 88.71

1.63%

EUR 143.76

-37.29%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-24

GBP 84.98

GBP 85.50

-0.61%

-GBP 0.52

GBP 80.43

5.66%

GBP 132.26

-35.75%

 

 

French Base

Nov-24

EUR 79.71

EUR 79.13

0.73%

EUR 0.58

EUR 82.17

-2.99%

EUR 170.36

-53.21%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-24

EUR 115.09

EUR 117.87

-2.35%

-EUR 2.77

EUR 111.90

2.85%

EUR 163.90

-29.78%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-24

$12.96

$13.26

-2.24%

-$0.30

$13.34

-2.83%

$18.39

-29.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/15/24

10/14/24

% Change

Change

9/17/24

% Change

10/16/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Nov-24

$40.13

$40.58

-1.10%

-$0.45

$37.21

7.84%

$56.31

-28.73%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Nov-24

$99.29

$100.80

-1.49%

-$1.50

$93.07

6.68%

$144.39

-31.23%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Nov-24

$90.16

$90.87

-0.78%

-$0.71

$88.71

1.63%

$143.76

-37.29%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Nov-24

$84.98

$85.50

-0.61%

-$0.52

$80.43

5.66%

$132.26

-35.75%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Nov-24

$79.71

$79.13

0.73%

$0.58

$82.17

-2.99%

$170.36

-53.21%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$115.09

$117.87

-2.35%

-$2.77

$111.90

2.85%

$163.90

-29.78%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$12.96

$13.26

-2.24%

-$0.30

$13.34

-2.83%

$18.39

-29.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/12/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

567

150

17

36.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

-1

767

112

70

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-3

0

776

70

112

10.00%

17.00%

 

 

W N Central

6

2

6

993

69

-61

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

30

-3

6

2,036

218

104

12.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

17

0

12

1,779

258

168

17.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

64

25

34

2,653

305

-168

13.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

40

23

19

1,396

178

188

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

34

22

12

901

215

228

31.00%

34.00%

 

 

United States

22

6

9

1,344

172

83

15.00%

6.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/12/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

85

-5

25

242

-92

34

-28.00%

16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

67

-7

3

146

-98

-14

-40.00%

-9.00%

 

 

E N Central

57

-20

-40

182

-95

-41

-34.00%

-18.00%

 

 

W N Central

45

-30

-49

165

-136

-30

-45.00%

-15.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

-7

-10

32

-35

-19

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

20

-15

-25

37

-50

-20

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

2

-8

-14

5

-18

-12

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

28

-37

-25

117

-170

-64

-59.00%

-36.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-16

-5

91

-67

-13

-42.00%

-12.00%

 

 

United States

36

-14

-15

104

-75

-21

-42.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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