Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-17-2023

Oct 17, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.093

$3.109

-0.51%

-$0.016

26,426

 

 

WTI

$86.57

$86.66

-0.10%

-$0.09

48,017

 

 

Brent

$89.63

$89.65

-0.02%

-$0.02

7,098

 

 

ULSD

$3.110

$3.149

-1.24%

-$0.039

6,509

 

 

RBOB

$2.276

$2.273

0.12%

$0.003

5,117

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.40

$4.39

0.23%

$0.01

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.25

$20.54

-1.43%

-$0.29

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.30

$37.63

-0.90%

-$0.34

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/13/23

622

3

-147

10/14/22

 

 

Canada

10/13/23

193

13

-23

10/14/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/10/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,824

96,479

96,520

-41

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,325

83,765

83,840

-75

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,444

395,147

407,393

-12,246

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

278,250

229,435

204,168

25,267

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

120,357

113,588

112,492

1,096

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,193

36,678

36,748

-70

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

141,548

140,933

141,109

-176

 

 

RBOB

304,452

282,212

287,662

-5,450

 

 

HSC Basis

624,872

619,333

618,139

1,194

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/12/18

 

 

 

10/6/23

9/29/23

Net Change

% Change

10/7/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

874

847

27

3.19%

782

11.76%

843

3.65%

 

 

Midwest

1,021

991

30

3.03%

952

7.25%

996

2.47%

 

 

Mountain

244

239

5

2.09%

190

28.42%

205

19.26%

 

 

Pacific

278

278

0

0.00%

249

11.65%

276

0.72%

 

 

South

1,112

1,090

22

2.02%

1,058

5.10%

1,087

2.34%

 

 

    Salt

267

259

8

3.09%

253

5.53%

267

-0.15%

 

 

    Non_Salt

845

830

15

1.81%

804

5.10%

819

3.20%

 

 

Total

3,529

3,445

84

2.44%

3,231

9.22%

3,407

3.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$43.92

$44.29

-0.82%

-$0.36

$42.00

4.57%

$68.41

-35.80%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$36.50

$38.44

-5.06%

-$1.94

$43.08

-15.27%

$52.40

-30.34%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$70.80

$67.67

4.63%

$3.13

$64.25

10.20%

$76.56

-7.52%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$43.91

$45.11

-2.66%

-$1.20

$44.58

-1.51%

$69.77

-37.06%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$51.83

$50.88

1.86%

$0.95

$52.86

-1.95%

$107.32

-51.71%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$100.46

$87.57

14.72%

$12.89

$83.55

20.24%

$97.34

3.20%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$46.61

$45.74

1.90%

$0.87

$47.66

-2.21%

$71.90

-35.18%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.109

$3.236

-3.92%

-$0.13

$3.00

3.60%

$5.52

-43.69%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.577

-$0.551

4.57%

-$0.03

-$0.43

32.67%

-$0.39

46.31%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.402

-$0.381

-5.08%

-$0.02

-$0.28

42.97%

-$0.21

89.34%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$1.110

-$1.055

-5.21%

-$0.05

-$0.84

31.85%

-$1.74

-36.03%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.507

$0.658

-22.92%

-$0.15

$1.24

-59.28%

$4.93

-89.72%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.140

-$1.203

-5.30%

$0.06

-$0.68

68.42%

-$1.65

-30.91%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.524

$1.878

34.44%

$0.65

$2.54

-0.64%

$0.31

722.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.706

$0.710

-0.53%

$0.00

$0.78

-9.16%

$0.81

-12.54%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.705

$0.705

0.00%

$0.00

$0.78

-9.32%

$0.81

-13.18%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.280

$0.290

-3.45%

-$0.01

$0.29

-3.70%

$0.31

-9.71%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.562

$1.574

-0.74%

-$0.01

$1.76

-11.09%

$1.56

0.19%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.831

$0.835

-0.42%

$0.00

$0.94

-11.56%

$0.81

2.42%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.693

$0.693

0.10%

$0.00

$0.78

-11.12%

$0.86

-18.92%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.664

$1.647

1.00%

$0.02

$1.82

-8.65%

$1.60

3.79%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$85.26

$86.35

-1.28%

-$1.09

$89.26

-4.48%

$74.62

14.26%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$89.65

$90.89

-1.38%

-$1.24

$93.29

-3.90%

$80.26

11.70%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$24.00

-$23.07

3.87%

-$0.93

-$17.70

35.57%

-$19.28

24.43%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$85.93

$85.90

0.03%

$0.03

$90.19

-4.73%

$76.20

12.77%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$83.26

$83.00

0.32%

$0.27

$87.78

-5.15%

$72.04

15.58%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$84.49

$84.31

0.22%

$0.19

$88.79

-4.84%

$72.62

16.35%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$87.65

$88.89

-1.41%

-$1.24

$91.29

-3.99%

$76.56

14.49%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.15

$3.21

-1.84%

-$0.06

$3.23

-2.50%

$2.89

9.10%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.28

$2.26

0.75%

$0.02

$2.56

-11.08%

$2.17

4.93%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.18

$2.16

0.79%

$0.02

$2.46

-11.53%

$2.07

5.16%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.93

$2.88

1.53%

$0.04

$2.91

0.65%

$2.93

0.07%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.03

$2.04

-0.49%

-$0.01

$2.06

-1.89%

$2.12

-4.35%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$863.33

$863.02

0.04%

$0.31

$861.70

0.19%

$810.73

6.49%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$115.92

$112.81

2.75%

$3.11

$117.96

-1.73%

$104.09

11.36%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

54.70%

54.24%

0.85%

0.46%

59.33%

-7.80%

62.92%

-13.06%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

81.64%

83.10%

-1.76%

-1.46%

70.47%

15.85%

78.11%

4.52%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

98.38%

92.94%

5.85%

5.44%

87.24%

12.77%

75.92%

29.58%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

74.11%

66.89%

10.79%

7.22%

64.48%

14.93%

65.42%

13.28%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

54.76%

49.17%

11.37%

5.59%

57.00%

-3.93%

49.48%

10.67%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

155.68%

150.19%

3.66%

5.49%

131.71%

18.20%

58.83%

164.63%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

263.49%

258.46%

1.95%

5.03%

184.60%

42.74%

81.71%

222.47%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/16/23

10/13/23

% Change

Change

9/18/23

% Change

10/17/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 48.56

EUR 55.29

-12.17%

-EUR 6.73

EUR 42.90

13.20%

EUR 152.59

-68.18%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 121.56

GBP 139.04

-12.57%

-GBP 17.48

GBP 106.85

13.76%

GBP 380.09

-68.02%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 117.10

EUR 123.82

-5.43%

-EUR 6.72

EUR 110.67

5.80%

EUR 502.19

-76.68%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 116.24

GBP 118.37

-1.80%

-GBP 2.13

GBP 102.06

13.89%

GBP 319.91

-63.66%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 123.80

EUR 135.01

-8.30%

-EUR 11.21

EUR 118.29

4.66%

EUR 550.91

-77.53%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 152.98

EUR 149.91

2.05%

EUR 3.07

EUR 129.86

17.80%

EUR 340.72

-55.10%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$13.83

$15.19

-8.95%

-$1.36

$13.81

0.16%

$43.91

-68.49%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

697

41

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-2

0

664

-43

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

1,054

129

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

22

-9

-4

1,936

111

-90

6.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

1

-14

-2

1,612

88

-98

6.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

-8

-15

2,825

469

29

20.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

17

2

-1

1,210

-11

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-4

-12

673

-16

-289

-2.00%

-30.00%

 

 

United States

9

-5

-4

1,263

88

-130

7.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

84

-11

-2

237

-125

-63

-35.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

84

5

6

187

-81

-47

-30.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

98

16

4

247

-56

-51

-18.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W N Central

91

11

2

223

-103

-31

-32.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

36

6

2

59

-18

-35

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

44

5

-4

64

-35

-60

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

17

5

11

22

-5

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

63

-6

14

207

-101

53

-33.00%

34.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-9

18

111

-57

65

-34.00%

141.00%

 

 

United States

57

3

7

141

-55

-16

-28.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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