Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-21-2024

Oct 21, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.322

$2.258

2.83%

$0.064

21,463

 

 

WTI

$70.77

$69.22

2.24%

$1.55

6,570

 

 

Brent

$74.45

$73.06

1.90%

$1.39

6,563

 

 

ULSD

$2.191

$2.152

1.80%

$0.039

1,494

 

 

RBOB

$2.042

$2.002

1.99%

$0.040

2,062

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.24

$4.37

-2.97%

-$0.13

Dec-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.70

$16.63

0.40%

$0.07

Nov-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.49

$36.40

-10.75%

-$3.91

Nov-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/18/24

585

-1

-39

10/21/23

 

 

Canada

10/18/24

217

-2

19

10/21/23

 

 

International

Sept

947

16

7

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/15/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,483

86,044

85,938

106

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

80,357

80,191

79,391

800

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

334,421

319,780

319,423

357

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

277,696

228,331

226,777

1,554

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

151,738

145,891

145,454

437

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,947

29,683

30,173

-490

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

150,900

150,172

150,477

-305

 

 

RBOB

351,534

331,900

336,540

-4,640

 

 

HSC Basis

811,214

803,207

800,731

2,476

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/11/19

 

 

 

10/11/24

10/4/24

Net Change

% Change

10/13/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

893

873

20

2.29%

896

-0.33%

875

2.10%

 

 

Midwest

1,067

1,041

26

2.50%

1,050

1.62%

1,043

2.34%

 

 

Mountain

287

286

1

0.35%

248

15.73%

221

29.98%

 

 

Pacific

293

293

0

0.00%

280

4.64%

280

4.57%

 

 

South

1,166

1,137

29

2.55%

1,152

1.22%

1,156

0.85%

 

 

    Salt

293

275

18

6.55%

285

2.81%

289

1.38%

 

 

    Non_Salt

872

861

11

1.28%

868

0.46%

867

0.53%

 

 

Total

3,705

3,629

76

2.09%

3,626

2.18%

3,575

3.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-24

$37.48

$41.24

-9.10%

-$3.75

$45.35

-17.35%

$48.52

-22.74%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-24

$31.40

$29.61

6.05%

$1.79

$32.33

-2.89%

$35.90

-12.54%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-24

$38.87

$41.11

-5.46%

-$2.24

$37.50

3.65%

$69.06

-43.72%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-24

$33.41

$37.51

-10.92%

-$4.10

$42.99

-22.28%

$51.38

-34.97%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-24

$40.93

$44.43

-7.88%

-$3.50

$52.92

-22.66%

$69.45

-41.07%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-24

$66.45

$67.00

-0.81%

-$0.55

$64.30

3.35%

$95.69

-30.55%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-24

$36.60

$39.99

-8.48%

-$3.39

$46.59

-21.44%

$51.69

-29.18%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-24

$2.258

$2.347

-3.79%

-$0.09

$2.73

-17.44%

$3.79

-40.41%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-24

-$0.461

-$0.419

10.18%

-$0.04

-$0.58

-20.17%

-$0.35

31.70%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-24

-$0.190

-$0.166

-12.77%

-$0.02

-$0.22

-13.54%

-$0.25

-25.14%

 

 

Waha

Nov-24

-$1.472

-$1.457

-1.08%

-$0.02

-$0.95

55.38%

-$0.63

132.58%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-24

$0.567

$0.529

7.18%

$0.04

$0.75

-23.96%

$2.20

-74.26%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-24

-$0.934

-$0.946

-1.30%

$0.01

-$1.36

-31.35%

-$1.07

-12.99%

 

 

Socal

Nov-24

$0.943

$1.035

-8.90%

-$0.09

$0.35

167.08%

$1.65

-42.86%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-24

$0.739

$0.745

-0.84%

-$0.01

$0.73

1.89%

$0.76

-2.15%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-24

$0.756

$0.760

-0.50%

$0.00

$0.74

2.13%

$0.75

0.68%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-24

$0.206

$0.215

-4.13%

-$0.01

$0.20

3.02%

$0.28

-25.04%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.462

$1.475

-0.85%

-$0.01

$1.47

-0.62%

$1.53

-4.69%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-24

$1.053

$1.077

-2.31%

-$0.02

$0.99

5.93%

$0.88

19.15%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-24

$6.475

$6.550

-1.14%

-$0.07

$6.34

2.13%

$5.81

11.37%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-24

$6.200

$6.250

-0.80%

-$0.05

$6.08

1.97%

$5.23

18.66%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-24

$68.69

$70.09

-2.04%

-$1.40

$70.10

-2.01%

$78.86

-12.90%

 

 

Brent

Dec-24

$73.06

$74.45

-1.90%

-$1.39

$73.69

-0.85%

$83.48

-12.48%

 

 

WCS

Dec-24

-$12.54

-$13.12

-4.59%

$0.58

-$13.80

-9.12%

-$15.32

-18.12%

 

 

LLS

Dec-24

$70.34

$71.70

-1.94%

-$1.37

$71.25

-1.29%

$82.13

-14.36%

 

 

Mars

Dec-24

$67.07

$68.42

-2.02%

-$1.36

$68.90

-2.67%

$78.32

-14.37%

 

 

Sour

Dec-24

$68.99

$70.22

-1.80%

-$1.24

$70.50

-2.14%

$75.96

-9.19%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-24

$71.06

$72.45

-1.96%

-$1.39

$71.69

-0.88%

$81.48

-12.79%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-24

$2.15

$2.19

-1.91%

-$0.04

$2.18

-1.33%

$2.75

-21.72%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-24

$2.01

$2.05

-1.61%

-$0.03

$2.02

-0.10%

$2.21

-9.00%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-24

$1.91

$1.95

-1.70%

-$0.03

$1.91

-0.10%

$2.11

-9.42%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-24

$1.99

$2.03

-1.97%

-$0.04

$2.06

-3.44%

$2.64

-24.54%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-24

$1.54

$1.52

0.98%

$0.01

$1.52

1.45%

$1.80

-14.68%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-24

$616.47

$618.04

-0.25%

-$1.57

$614.99

0.24%

$774.94

-20.45%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-24

$86.15

$85.85

0.35%

$0.30

$85.44

0.83%

$104.50

-17.56%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-24

64.95%

62.46%

3.99%

2.49%

53.88%

20.55%

51.16%

26.95%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-24

73.86%

80.46%

-8.20%

-6.60%

75.10%

-1.65%

57.02%

29.53%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-24

87.39%

83.49%

4.67%

3.90%

70.18%

24.52%

56.24%

55.39%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-24

66.80%

65.04%

2.71%

1.76%

53.22%

25.52%

52.85%

26.40%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-24

57.39%

57.82%

-0.74%

-0.43%

52.23%

9.88%

41.02%

39.91%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-24

206.38%

200.76%

2.80%

5.62%

180.78%

14.16%

71.19%

189.90%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-24

299.53%

297.97%

0.52%

1.56%

190.82%

56.97%

109.25%

174.17%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-24

EUR 39.81

EUR 39.96

-0.36%

-EUR 0.15

EUR 36.56

8.91%

EUR 59.51

-33.10%

 

 

NBP

Dec-24

GBP 100.12

GBP 100.57

-0.45%

-GBP 0.45

GBP 92.43

8.32%

GBP 156.14

-35.88%

 

 

German Base

Dec-24

EUR 83.73

EUR 85.40

-1.96%

-EUR 1.67

EUR 84.98

-1.47%

EUR 145.38

-42.41%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-24

GBP 84.20

GBP 82.22

2.41%

GBP 1.98

GBP 79.86

5.44%

GBP 137.53

-38.78%

 

 

French Base

Dec-24

EUR 78.90

EUR 82.36

-4.20%

-EUR 3.46

EUR 84.88

-7.04%

EUR 168.67

-53.22%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-24

EUR 115.83

EUR 116.56

-0.62%

-EUR 0.72

EUR 112.61

2.86%

EUR 156.58

-26.02%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-24

$13.40

$13.68

-1.98%

-$0.27

$12.97

3.37%

$18.19

-26.29%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/18/24

10/17/24

% Change

Change

9/20/24

% Change

10/19/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-24

$39.81

$39.96

-0.36%

-$0.15

$36.56

8.91%

$59.51

-33.10%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-24

$100.12

$100.57

-0.45%

-$0.45

$92.43

8.32%

$156.14

-35.88%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-24

$83.73

$85.40

-1.96%

-$1.67

$84.98

-1.47%

$145.38

-42.41%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-24

$84.20

$82.22

2.41%

$1.98

$79.86

5.44%

$137.53

-38.78%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-24

$78.90

$82.36

-4.20%

-$3.46

$84.88

-7.04%

$168.67

-53.22%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$115.83

$116.56

-0.62%

-$0.72

$112.61

2.86%

$156.58

-26.02%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-24

$13.40

$13.68

-1.98%

-$0.27

$12.97

3.37%

$18.19

-26.29%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/19/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

570

153

20

37.00%

4.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-1

0

772

116

75

18.00%

11.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

778

70

115

10.00%

17.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-2

0

993

67

-61

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

17

-9

0

2,053

209

106

11.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

2

-9

1

1,780

249

167

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

34

6

17

2,686

309

-152

13.00%

-5.00%

 

 

Mountain

16

5

-4

1,416

187

185

15.00%

15.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-8

-16

902

208

208

30.00%

30.00%

 

 

United States

8

-3

-1

1,354

171

83

14.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/19/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

126

19

33

370

-70

69

-16.00%

23.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

94

3

6

241

-94

-7

-28.00%

-3.00%

 

 

E N Central

106

10

9

289

-84

-31

-23.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W N Central

101

7

6

266

-129

-24

-33.00%

-8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

51

14

6

83

-21

-13

-20.00%

-14.00%

 

 

E S Central

72

24

16

109

-26

-4

-19.00%

-4.00%

 

 

W S Central

24

7

-8

29

-11

-19

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

60

-20

0

177

-189

-65

-52.00%

-27.00%

 

 

Pacific

32

-9

15

123

-75

2

-38.00%

2.00%

 

 

United States

69

6

8

174

-69

-13

-28.00%

-6.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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