Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-24-2023

Oct 24, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:49 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.925

$2.926

-0.03%

-$0.001

17,733

 

 

WTI

$84.84

$85.49

-0.76%

-$0.65

99,378

 

 

Brent

$89.20

$89.83

-0.70%

-$0.63

10,373

 

 

ULSD

$3.046

$3.095

-1.61%

-$0.050

2,667

 

 

RBOB

$2.289

$2.329

-1.68%

-$0.039

3,327

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.40

$4.34

1.38%

$0.06

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.55

$21.45

-4.21%

-$0.90

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.38

$37.66

-3.41%

-$1.28

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/20/23

624

2

-147

10/21/22

 

 

Canada

10/20/23

198

5

-12

10/21/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/17/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,514

98,228

98,184

44

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,581

86,004

86,118

-114

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

418,710

394,413

406,803

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

149,751

126,978

107,408

19,570

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,781

118,923

120,598

-1,675

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,863

40,307

40,305

2

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

145,416

144,819

144,969

-150

 

 

RBOB

333,751

311,304

316,748

-5,444

 

 

HSC Basis

646,482

640,673

639,066

1,607

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/19/18

 

 

 

10/13/23

10/6/23

Net Change

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

896

874

22

2.52%

812

10.34%

864

3.70%

 

 

Midwest

1,050

1,021

29

2.84%

987

6.38%

1,024

2.50%

 

 

Mountain

248

244

4

1.64%

195

27.18%

207

19.69%

 

 

Pacific

280

278

2

0.72%

249

12.45%

277

1.16%

 

 

South

1,152

1,112

40

3.60%

1,099

4.82%

1,113

3.49%

 

 

    Salt

285

267

18

6.74%

271

5.17%

280

1.79%

 

 

    Non_Salt

868

845

23

2.72%

828

4.83%

833

4.18%

 

 

Total

3,626

3,529

97

2.75%

3,342

8.50%

3,486

4.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.67

$43.92

-2.86%

-$1.25

$42.48

0.45%

$62.05

-31.23%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$38.12

$36.96

3.13%

$1.16

$42.91

-11.15%

$47.91

-20.42%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$67.60

$66.85

1.12%

$0.75

$63.02

7.27%

$74.38

-9.12%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$42.20

$43.53

-3.06%

-$1.33

$45.10

-6.42%

$64.63

-34.70%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$45.81

$45.88

-0.14%

-$0.06

$49.57

-7.57%

$95.00

-51.78%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$97.32

$97.44

-0.12%

-$0.12

$86.05

13.10%

$93.39

4.22%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$41.45

$41.79

-0.80%

-$0.33

$43.88

-5.53%

$62.05

-33.20%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.926

$2.899

0.93%

$0.03

$2.91

0.69%

$5.15

-43.23%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.533

-$0.514

3.62%

-$0.02

-$0.43

24.49%

-$0.38

40.04%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.312

-$0.312

0.06%

$0.00

-$0.28

10.53%

-$0.20

56.45%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$1.083

-$1.018

-6.32%

-$0.06

-$0.98

10.90%

-$1.79

-39.46%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.485

$0.472

2.84%

$0.01

$1.09

-55.31%

$4.16

-88.33%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.917

-$0.942

-2.63%

$0.02

-$0.90

1.38%

-$1.66

-44.61%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.267

$2.758

-17.83%

-$0.49

$2.19

3.44%

$0.32

609.23%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.667

$0.688

-2.93%

-$0.02

$0.72

-6.98%

$0.82

-19.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.662

$0.688

-3.66%

-$0.03

$0.72

-7.73%

$0.82

-19.17%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.268

$0.266

0.44%

$0.00

$0.27

-1.83%

$0.31

-12.82%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.652

$1.620

1.94%

$0.03

$1.68

-1.85%

$1.54

7.17%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.819

$0.835

-1.94%

-$0.02

$0.87

-6.27%

$0.87

-5.43%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-23

$6.700

$6.623

1.17%

$0.08

$6.99

-4.10%

$5.62

19.21%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-23

$5.950

$5.900

0.85%

$0.05

$5.79

2.85%

$5.20

14.50%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$85.49

$88.08

-3.03%

-$2.59

$88.17

-3.04%

$75.12

13.80%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$89.83

$92.16

-2.59%

-$2.33

$91.88

-2.23%

$80.84

11.12%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$24.49

-$23.83

2.70%

-$0.66

-$15.56

57.39%

-$18.66

31.25%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$86.21

$87.83

-1.88%

-$1.62

$88.36

-2.43%

$76.73

12.35%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$83.64

$85.29

-1.98%

-$1.66

$85.76

-2.48%

$72.08

16.02%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$84.05

$87.64

-4.27%

-$3.58

$87.50

-3.94%

$73.12

14.95%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$87.83

$90.16

-2.65%

-$2.33

$89.88

-2.28%

$77.95

12.67%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.10

$3.17

-2.24%

-$0.07

$3.20

-3.19%

$2.85

8.58%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.33

$2.37

-1.86%

-$0.04

$2.50

-7.03%

$2.21

5.29%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.23

$2.27

-1.94%

-$0.04

$2.40

-7.32%

$2.11

5.55%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.85

$2.89

-1.52%

-$0.04

$2.87

-0.84%

$2.65

7.27%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.10

$2.14

-2.33%

-$0.05

$2.06

1.65%

$2.13

-1.50%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$859.95

$872.61

-1.45%

-$12.66

$871.18

-1.29%

$762.00

12.85%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$114.22

$116.19

-1.70%

-$1.97

$118.24

-3.40%

$99.28

15.05%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

62.64%

60.90%

2.86%

1.74%

61.01%

2.67%

60.47%

3.59%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

81.27%

79.44%

2.30%

1.83%

65.65%

23.79%

75.35%

7.86%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

68.27%

66.68%

2.38%

1.59%

71.01%

-3.86%

67.75%

0.77%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

66.66%

65.32%

2.05%

1.34%

64.76%

2.93%

61.24%

8.85%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

66.62%

68.16%

-2.26%

-1.54%

68.33%

-2.50%

56.60%

17.70%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

358.73%

289.20%

24.04%

69.53%

124.50%

188.14%

63.48%

465.11%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

293.44%

230.60%

27.25%

62.84%

161.81%

81.35%

79.58%

268.74%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 55.45

EUR 54.91

0.99%

EUR 0.54

EUR 49.28

12.53%

EUR 137.39

-59.64%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 144.26

GBP 142.11

1.52%

GBP 2.15

GBP 129.60

11.31%

GBP 352.62

-59.09%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 117.43

EUR 118.98

-1.30%

-EUR 1.55

EUR 123.03

-4.55%

EUR 433.32

-72.90%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 121.61

GBP 121.51

0.08%

GBP 0.10

GBP 116.56

4.33%

GBP 303.56

-59.94%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 125.19

EUR 126.98

-1.41%

-EUR 1.80

EUR 135.95

-7.92%

EUR 476.59

-73.73%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 153.84

EUR 152.01

1.20%

EUR 1.83

EUR 145.54

5.70%

EUR 315.65

-51.26%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$16.95

$16.56

2.40%

$0.40

$14.77

14.79%

$38.23

-55.65%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/23/23

10/20/23

% Change

Change

9/25/23

% Change

10/24/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$55.45

$54.91

0.99%

$0.54

$49.28

12.53%

$137.39

-59.64%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$144.26

$142.11

1.52%

$2.15

$129.60

11.31%

$352.62

-59.09%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$117.43

$118.98

-1.30%

-$1.55

$123.03

-4.55%

$433.32

-72.90%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$121.61

$121.51

0.08%

$0.10

$116.56

4.33%

$303.56

-59.94%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$125.19

$126.98

-1.41%

-$1.80

$135.95

-7.92%

$476.59

-73.73%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$153.84

$152.01

1.20%

$1.83

$145.54

5.70%

$315.65

-51.26%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$16.95

$16.56

2.40%

$0.40

$14.77

14.79%

$38.23

-55.65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/21/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-1

0

697

41

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

664

-44

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

1,054

128

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

14

-10

-2

1,950

101

-92

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

1

-8

0

1,613

80

-98

5.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

20

-6

-1

2,845

463

28

19.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

25

15

14

1,235

4

-147

0.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

22

16

9

695

0

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

10

0

2

1,273

88

-129

7.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/21/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

86

-25

-16

322

-152

-79

-32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

-14

-26

269

-95

-73

-26.00%

-21.00%

 

 

E N Central

99

-2

-46

346

-58

-97

-14.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

85

-15

-64

308

-118

-95

-28.00%

-24.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

48

8

-14

107

-10

-49

-9.00%

-31.00%

 

 

E S Central

59

8

-33

123

-28

-93

-19.00%

-43.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

9

-10

50

4

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

46

-38

-13

253

-139

40

-35.00%

19.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-29

-3

126

-86

62

-41.00%

97.00%

 

 

United States

59

-8

-23

200

-63

-40

-24.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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