Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-25-2023

Oct 25, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:31 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.009

$2.971

1.28%

$0.038

7,266

 

 

WTI

$83.95

$83.74

0.25%

$0.21

79,477

 

 

Brent

$88.34

$88.07

0.31%

$0.27

9,477

 

 

ULSD

$3.021

$3.045

-0.79%

-$0.024

1,830

 

 

RBOB

$2.290

$2.268

0.97%

$0.022

1,752

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.37

$4.33

0.92%

$0.04

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$21.03

$20.81

1.07%

$0.22

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.26

$36.31

-0.14%

-$0.05

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/20/23

624

2

-147

10/21/22

 

 

Canada

10/20/23

198

5

-12

10/21/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/17/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,514

98,228

98,184

44

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,581

86,004

86,118

-114

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

418,710

394,413

406,803

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

149,751

126,978

107,408

19,570

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

127,781

118,923

120,598

-1,675

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,863

40,307

40,305

2

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

145,416

144,819

144,969

-150

 

 

RBOB

333,751

311,304

316,748

-5,444

 

 

HSC Basis

646,482

640,673

639,066

1,607

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/19/18

 

 

 

10/13/23

10/6/23

Net Change

% Change

10/14/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

896

874

22

2.52%

812

10.34%

864

3.70%

 

 

Midwest

1,050

1,021

29

2.84%

987

6.38%

1,024

2.50%

 

 

Mountain

248

244

4

1.64%

195

27.18%

207

19.69%

 

 

Pacific

280

278

2

0.72%

249

12.45%

277

1.16%

 

 

South

1,152

1,112

40

3.60%

1,099

4.82%

1,113

3.49%

 

 

    Salt

285

267

18

6.74%

271

5.17%

280

1.79%

 

 

    Non_Salt

868

845

23

2.72%

828

4.83%

833

4.18%

 

 

Total

3,626

3,529

97

2.75%

3,342

8.50%

3,486

4.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.70

$42.67

0.08%

$0.03

$41.35

3.29%

$62.68

-31.86%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$40.16

$38.12

5.34%

$2.04

$44.06

-8.85%

$48.54

-17.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$67.99

$67.60

0.58%

$0.39

$59.55

14.18%

$76.37

-10.97%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$42.68

$42.20

1.15%

$0.48

$43.87

-2.70%

$64.90

-34.23%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$46.99

$45.81

2.57%

$1.18

$51.23

-8.27%

$98.72

-52.39%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$97.53

$97.32

0.21%

$0.20

$82.65

18.00%

$98.34

-0.83%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$42.55

$41.45

2.65%

$1.10

$45.00

-5.45%

$59.46

-28.44%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.971

$2.926

1.54%

$0.04

$2.85

4.43%

$5.28

-43.77%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.518

-$0.533

-2.72%

$0.01

-$0.43

21.50%

-$0.39

33.01%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.306

-$0.312

1.83%

$0.01

-$0.29

5.19%

-$0.19

61.24%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$1.153

-$1.083

-6.50%

-$0.07

-$0.95

21.31%

-$1.82

-36.63%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.491

$0.485

1.11%

$0.01

$1.01

-51.38%

$4.21

-88.36%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.932

-$0.917

1.60%

-$0.01

-$0.90

3.37%

-$1.76

-46.93%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.845

$2.267

25.53%

$0.58

$2.03

40.04%

$0.36

701.27%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.657

$0.667

-1.50%

-$0.01

$0.73

-9.79%

$0.83

-20.55%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.647

$0.662

-2.28%

-$0.02

$0.73

-11.18%

$0.83

-22.13%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.260

$0.268

-2.84%

-$0.01

$0.27

-2.54%

$0.31

-15.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.543

$1.652

-6.60%

-$0.11

$1.66

-7.11%

$1.55

-0.47%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.818

$0.819

-0.16%

$0.00

$0.89

-8.00%

$0.88

-6.93%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-23

$6.641

$6.700

-0.88%

-$0.06

$6.89

-3.60%

$5.61

18.34%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-23

$5.870

$5.950

-1.34%

-$0.08

$5.80

1.21%

$5.24

12.12%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$83.74

$85.49

-2.09%

-$1.75

$88.78

-5.68%

$76.03

10.14%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$88.07

$89.83

-2.00%

-$1.76

$92.43

-4.72%

$81.74

7.74%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$21.78

-$24.49

-12.44%

$2.71

-$19.79

10.08%

-$18.85

15.56%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$84.21

$86.21

-2.38%

-$2.00

$89.02

-5.41%

$78.19

7.69%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$80.83

$83.64

-3.47%

-$2.80

$86.20

-6.23%

$72.98

10.77%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$81.93

$84.05

-2.59%

-$2.12

$88.03

-6.92%

$73.93

10.82%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$86.07

$87.83

-2.04%

-$1.76

$90.43

-4.82%

$78.15

10.13%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$3.01

$3.10

-2.90%

-$0.09

$3.17

-5.20%

$2.85

5.54%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.27

$2.33

-2.58%

-$0.06

$2.47

-8.29%

$2.23

1.52%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.17

$2.23

-2.69%

-$0.06

$2.37

-8.64%

$2.13

1.59%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.69

$2.85

-5.37%

-$0.15

$2.86

-5.87%

$3.17

-14.99%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.07

$2.10

-1.34%

-$0.03

$2.03

1.62%

$2.13

-3.09%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$820.55

$859.95

-4.58%

-$39.41

$851.59

-3.65%

$809.91

1.31%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$111.32

$114.22

-2.54%

-$2.90

$116.94

-4.81%

$100.30

10.99%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

62.21%

62.64%

-0.69%

-0.43%

61.72%

0.79%

53.18%

16.98%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

80.66%

81.27%

-0.75%

-0.61%

65.85%

22.49%

70.07%

15.11%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

67.99%

68.27%

-0.41%

-0.28%

68.07%

-0.12%

62.45%

8.87%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

66.15%

66.66%

-0.77%

-0.51%

65.14%

1.55%

54.03%

22.43%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

64.72%

66.62%

-2.85%

-1.90%

66.72%

-3.00%

56.67%

14.21%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

316.93%

358.73%

-11.65%

-41.80%

107.90%

193.73%

61.16%

418.20%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

157.90%

293.44%

-46.19%

-135.54%

165.54%

-4.62%

80.10%

97.13%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 52.66

EUR 55.45

-5.03%

-EUR 2.79

EUR 46.86

12.38%

EUR 138.05

-61.85%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 137.35

GBP 144.26

-4.79%

-GBP 6.90

GBP 123.31

11.39%

GBP 345.54

-60.25%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 113.52

EUR 117.43

-3.33%

-EUR 3.91

EUR 122.63

-7.43%

EUR 434.06

-73.85%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 114.99

GBP 121.61

-5.45%

-GBP 6.62

GBP 115.31

-0.28%

GBP 305.83

-62.40%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 120.68

EUR 125.19

-3.60%

-EUR 4.51

EUR 132.55

-8.96%

EUR 498.50

-75.79%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 147.82

EUR 153.84

-3.92%

-EUR 6.03

EUR 139.31

6.10%

EUR 314.12

-52.94%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$15.63

$16.95

-7.84%

-$1.33

$14.49

7.85%

$37.78

-58.64%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/24/23

10/23/23

% Change

Change

9/26/23

% Change

10/25/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$52.66

$55.45

-5.03%

-$2.79

$46.86

12.38%

$138.05

-61.85%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$137.35

$144.26

-4.79%

-$6.90

$123.31

11.39%

$345.54

-60.25%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$113.52

$117.43

-3.33%

-$3.91

$122.63

-7.43%

$434.06

-73.85%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$114.99

$121.61

-5.45%

-$6.62

$115.31

-0.28%

$305.83

-62.40%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$120.68

$125.19

-3.60%

-$4.51

$132.55

-8.96%

$498.50

-75.79%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$147.82

$153.84

-3.92%

-$6.03

$139.31

6.10%

$314.12

-52.94%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$15.63

$16.95

-7.84%

-$1.33

$14.49

7.85%

$37.78

-58.64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/21/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-1

0

697

41

-158

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-1

0

664

-44

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-1

0

1,054

128

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

14

-10

-2

1,950

101

-92

5.00%

-5.00%

 

 

E S Central

1

-8

0

1,613

80

-98

5.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

20

-6

-1

2,845

463

28

19.00%

1.00%

 

 

Mountain

25

15

14

1,235

4

-147

0.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

22

16

9

695

0

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

10

0

2

1,273

88

-129

7.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/21/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

86

-25

-16

322

-152

-79

-32.00%

-20.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

82

-14

-26

269

-95

-73

-26.00%

-21.00%

 

 

E N Central

99

-2

-46

346

-58

-97

-14.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

85

-15

-64

308

-118

-95

-28.00%

-24.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

48

8

-14

107

-10

-49

-9.00%

-31.00%

 

 

E S Central

59

8

-33

123

-28

-93

-19.00%

-43.00%

 

 

W S Central

28

9

-10

50

4

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

46

-38

-13

253

-139

40

-35.00%

19.00%

 

 

Pacific

15

-29

-3

126

-86

62

-41.00%

97.00%

 

 

United States

59

-8

-23

200

-63

-40

-24.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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