Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-31-2023

Oct 31, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.439

$3.352

2.60%

$0.087

25,307

 

 

WTI

$82.90

$82.31

0.72%

$0.59

92,084

 

 

Brent

$88.37

$87.45

1.05%

$0.92

193

 

 

ULSD

$3.003

$2.966

1.24%

$0.037

424

 

 

RBOB

$2.242

$2.220

0.97%

$0.021

342

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.51

$5.14

7.20%

$0.37

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$20.57

$20.14

2.14%

$0.43

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/27/23

625

1

-143

10/28/22

 

 

Canada

10/27/23

196

-2

-16

10/28/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/24/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,961

97,659

97,636

23

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,740

86,245

86,268

-23

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,497

395,200

407,590

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

157,335

133,285

113,842

19,443

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,155

118,014

121,812

-3,798

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,563

41,010

40,960

50

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,072

154,383

154,644

-261

 

 

RBOB

330,794

305,010

313,720

-8,710

 

 

HSC Basis

657,747

651,976

650,579

1,397

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/26/18

 

 

 

10/20/23

10/13/23

Net Change

% Change

10/21/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

908

896

12

1.34%

825

10.06%

879

3.28%

 

 

Midwest

1,075

1,050

25

2.38%

1,007

6.75%

1,046

2.79%

 

 

Mountain

252

248

4

1.61%

199

26.63%

208

20.92%

 

 

Pacific

283

280

3

1.07%

248

14.11%

277

2.31%

 

 

South

1,182

1,152

30

2.60%

1,116

5.91%

1,130

4.60%

 

 

    Salt

299

285

14

4.91%

277

7.94%

291

2.68%

 

 

    Non_Salt

883

868

15

1.73%

839

5.24%

839

5.24%

 

 

Total

3,700

3,626

74

2.04%

3,394

9.02%

3,540

4.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$42.41

$45.68

-7.17%

-$3.28

$42.44

-0.08%

$62.05

-31.66%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$43.68

$44.15

-1.07%

-$0.47

$37.96

15.05%

$48.58

-10.09%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$59.48

$58.46

1.75%

$1.02

$61.62

-3.47%

$76.63

-22.38%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$41.82

$42.43

-1.45%

-$0.61

$44.63

-6.30%

$64.07

-34.73%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$52.45

$48.02

9.22%

$4.43

$46.68

12.36%

$91.40

-42.62%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$86.08

$86.33

-0.29%

-$0.25

$88.87

-3.13%

$91.62

-6.05%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$46.74

$43.63

7.15%

$3.12

$45.90

1.83%

$57.32

-18.45%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.352

$3.483

-3.76%

-$0.13

$3.23

3.68%

$5.57

-39.79%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.250

-$0.240

3.91%

-$0.01

-$0.20

26.19%

-$0.31

-18.78%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.338

$0.335

-1.09%

$0.00

$0.24

40.68%

$0.19

82.51%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.491

-$0.487

-0.90%

$0.00

-$0.43

14.14%

-$1.32

-62.89%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$5.109

$5.235

-2.40%

-$0.13

$7.68

-33.47%

$13.11

-61.04%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.198

-$1.229

-2.49%

$0.03

-$1.00

20.40%

-$2.01

-40.45%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$5.521

$5.825

-5.23%

-$0.30

$4.35

26.99%

$1.57

252.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.668

$0.663

0.73%

$0.00

$0.72

-7.28%

$0.86

-22.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.668

$0.663

0.73%

$0.00

$0.72

-7.60%

$0.86

-22.09%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.255

$0.260

-1.97%

-$0.01

$0.28

-8.15%

$0.30

-14.39%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.517

$1.546

-1.85%

-$0.03

$1.67

-8.95%

$1.58

-3.70%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.835

$0.844

-1.00%

-$0.01

$0.87

-4.43%

$0.91

-8.47%

 

 

Far East Propane

Nov-23

$6.820

$6.790

0.45%

$0.03

$6.50

4.93%

$5.84

16.84%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Nov-23

$5.880

$5.930

-0.84%

-$0.05

$6.06

-2.97%

$5.52

6.57%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$82.31

$85.54

-3.92%

-$3.23

$87.17

-5.58%

$76.44

7.68%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$87.45

$90.48

-3.46%

-$3.03

$90.71

-3.59%

$82.29

6.27%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$25.34

-$23.39

7.70%

-$1.95

-$19.60

29.28%

-$21.54

17.66%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$83.85

$86.38

-3.02%

-$2.53

$86.58

-3.15%

$76.82

9.15%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$81.23

$83.46

-2.75%

-$2.23

$83.96

-3.24%

$73.80

10.08%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$81.91

$83.96

-2.51%

-$2.05

$85.44

-4.13%

$73.93

10.79%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$85.45

$88.48

-3.55%

-$3.03

$88.71

-3.67%

$79.14

7.98%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$2.99

$3.06

-2.19%

-$0.07

$3.24

-7.68%

$2.93

2.29%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.27

$2.31

-2.07%

-$0.05

$2.42

-6.29%

$2.29

-0.87%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.17

$2.21

-2.17%

-$0.05

$2.32

-6.56%

$2.19

-0.91%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.81

$2.81

0.18%

$0.00

$2.85

-1.54%

$2.98

-5.80%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$1.94

$2.01

-3.34%

-$0.07

$2.02

-3.82%

$2.21

-12.31%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$804.75

$818.94

-1.73%

-$14.20

$868.07

-7.29%

$754.90

6.60%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$110.35

$109.09

1.15%

$1.26

$117.74

-6.28%

$99.92

10.44%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

69.18%

65.56%

5.52%

3.62%

63.89%

8.28%

53.61%

29.04%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

83.38%

82.35%

1.25%

1.03%

71.72%

16.26%

78.38%

6.38%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

78.14%

70.64%

10.62%

7.50%

70.80%

10.37%

56.61%

38.03%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

71.74%

68.33%

4.99%

3.41%

68.11%

5.33%

55.60%

29.03%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

63.79%

64.30%

-0.79%

-0.51%

66.83%

-4.55%

55.96%

13.99%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

343.28%

353.87%

-2.99%

-10.59%

115.33%

197.65%

62.47%

449.51%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

284.98%

278.97%

2.15%

6.01%

183.49%

55.31%

81.34%

250.36%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 52.33

EUR 53.78

-2.69%

-EUR 1.45

EUR 43.65

19.87%

EUR 129.34

-59.54%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 136.40

GBP 139.51

-2.23%

-GBP 3.11

GBP 113.18

20.51%

GBP 321.36

-57.56%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 113.20

EUR 111.46

1.56%

EUR 1.74

EUR 113.67

-0.41%

EUR 452.26

-74.97%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 113.37

GBP 113.85

-0.42%

-GBP 0.47

GBP 106.68

6.27%

GBP 292.76

-61.27%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 120.32

EUR 117.55

2.36%

EUR 2.77

EUR 122.13

-1.48%

EUR 496.97

-75.79%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 147.28

EUR 148.26

-0.66%

-EUR 0.98

EUR 132.55

11.11%

EUR 289.83

-49.18%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$17.03

$17.14

-0.66%

-$0.11

$14.11

20.67%

$31.85

-46.54%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/30/23

10/27/23

% Change

Change

10/2/23

% Change

10/31/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$52.33

$53.78

-2.69%

-$1.45

$43.65

19.87%

$129.34

-59.54%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$136.40

$139.51

-2.23%

-$3.11

$113.18

20.51%

$321.36

-57.56%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$113.20

$111.46

1.56%

$1.74

$113.67

-0.41%

$452.26

-74.97%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$113.37

$113.85

-0.42%

-$0.47

$106.68

6.27%

$292.76

-61.27%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$120.32

$117.55

2.36%

$2.77

$122.13

-1.48%

$496.97

-75.79%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$147.28

$148.26

-0.66%

-$0.98

$132.55

11.11%

$289.83

-49.18%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$17.03

$17.14

-0.66%

-$0.11

$14.11

20.67%

$31.85

-46.54%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

1

1

551

134

-101

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

1

1

698

42

-157

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

1

-1

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

1

6

1,971

102

-87

5.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

9

13

1,627

90

-85

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

52

33

29

2,897

495

57

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

8

2

6

1,243

6

-141

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

695

-3

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

11

4

6

1,284

92

-123

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

-61

-13

387

-212

-92

-35.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

70

-41

-1

339

-135

-74

-28.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

71

-48

-5

416

-107

-102

-20.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

94

-28

2

402

-146

-93

-27.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

28

-21

-14

135

-30

-63

-18.00%

-32.00%

 

 

E S Central

22

-42

-28

145

-70

-121

-33.00%

-45.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-26

-23

54

-22

-29

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

94

-8

-33

347

-147

7

-30.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

65

10

-4

191

-76

58

-28.00%

44.00%

 

 

United States

54

-27

-11

254

-90

-51

-26.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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