Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-01-2023

Sep 1, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.830

$2.768

2.24%

$0.062

31,635

 

 

WTI

$84.85

$83.63

1.46%

$1.22

138,131

 

 

Brent

$87.89

$86.86

1.19%

$1.03

11,662

 

 

ULSD

$3.124

$3.143

-0.59%

-$0.018

11,875

 

 

RBOB

$2.588

$2.766

-6.45%

-$0.178

11,433

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.83

$3.87

-1.03%

-$0.04

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.82

$28.99

-0.60%

-$0.17

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/25/23

632

-10

-133

08/26/22

 

 

Canada

08/25/23

190

1

-11

08/26/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/22/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

106,847

106,412

106,462

-50

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

93,985

93,460

93,329

131

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

429,747

404,994

417,586

-12,592

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

143,395

114,595

111,190

3,405

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

135,073

125,749

127,400

-1,651

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,589

35,267

35,087

180

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,347

154,634

154,816

-182

 

 

RBOB

377,598

350,159

363,785

-13,626

 

 

HSC Basis

618,354

614,252

607,484

6,768

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/31/18

 

 

 

8/25/23

8/18/23

Net Change

% Change

8/26/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

751

731

20

2.74%

614

22.31%

696

7.84%

 

 

Midwest

853

831

22

2.65%

747

14.19%

808

5.60%

 

 

Mountain

213

206

7

3.40%

157

35.67%

180

18.46%

 

 

Pacific

248

242

6

2.48%

241

2.90%

262

-5.34%

 

 

South

1,050

1,072

-22

-2.05%

881

19.18%

959

9.49%

 

 

    Salt

249

260

-11

-4.23%

185

34.59%

220

13.28%

 

 

    Non_Salt

801

813

-12

-1.48%

696

15.09%

739

8.36%

 

 

Total

3,115

3,083

32

1.04%

2,640

17.99%

2,905

7.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$45.11

$47.26

-4.53%

-$2.14

$39.87

13.15%

$77.95

-42.12%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$134.11

$139.68

-3.99%

-$5.57

$67.74

97.97%

$79.61

68.45%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$67.87

$75.00

-9.51%

-$7.13

$108.36

-37.37%

$121.21

-44.01%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$50.19

$52.20

-3.86%

-$2.01

$45.80

9.57%

$80.75

-37.85%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$61.92

$35.44

74.71%

$26.48

$34.88

77.51%

$66.70

-7.16%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$91.58

$88.49

3.49%

$3.09

$184.04

-50.24%

$152.82

-40.07%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$40.67

$36.98

9.98%

$3.69

$36.64

11.00%

$60.16

-32.40%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.768

$2.796

-1.00%

-$0.03

$2.67

3.67%

$5.96

-53.53%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.304

-$0.362

-16.00%

$0.06

-$0.33

-9.05%

-$0.28

7.71%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.277

-$0.310

11.76%

$0.03

-$0.27

3.09%

-$0.30

-7.94%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.822

-$0.951

-13.56%

$0.13

-$0.62

31.94%

-$2.06

-60.02%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.030

-$1.077

4.37%

$0.05

-$0.86

19.90%

-$1.26

-18.07%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.718

-$0.704

1.99%

-$0.01

-$0.64

12.67%

-$1.91

-62.38%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$1.346

$1.334

0.94%

$0.01

$1.95

-31.01%

-$0.25

-646.65%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.700

$0.685

2.18%

$0.01

$0.76

-7.89%

$0.93

-24.76%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.700

$0.690

1.43%

$0.01

$0.74

-6.04%

$0.92

-24.30%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.285

$0.281

1.41%

$0.00

$0.25

15.71%

$0.40

-28.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.642

$1.595

2.95%

$0.05

$1.49

10.01%

$1.55

6.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.851

$0.844

0.87%

$0.01

$0.87

-2.02%

$1.03

-17.71%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.685

$0.700

-2.13%

-$0.01

$0.75

-9.24%

$0.92

-25.84%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.695

$1.633

3.82%

$0.06

$1.55

9.54%

$1.63

3.69%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$83.63

$81.63

2.39%

$2.00

$81.08

3.15%

$78.77

6.17%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$87.15

$85.86

1.48%

$1.29

$85.14

2.36%

$83.75

4.06%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$14.82

-$18.72

-26.31%

$3.90

-$16.00

-7.37%

-$17.32

-14.41%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$83.94

$83.04

1.08%

$0.91

$82.70

1.50%

$81.25

3.32%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$81.97

$80.91

1.29%

$1.06

$80.48

1.84%

$77.36

5.96%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$83.25

$81.82

1.71%

$1.42

$81.13

2.61%

$76.48

8.84%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$85.15

$83.86

1.51%

$1.29

$83.14

2.42%

$79.36

7.29%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.09

$3.10

-0.45%

-$0.01

$3.09

0.06%

$2.86

7.93%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.61

$2.58

1.20%

$0.03

$2.76

-5.61%

$2.33

11.80%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.51

$2.47

1.25%

$0.03

$2.66

-5.82%

$2.23

12.33%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$2.92

$3.03

-3.83%

-$0.12

$2.89

0.93%

$2.67

9.25%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.24

$2.26

-0.71%

-$0.02

$2.10

6.77%

$2.08

7.74%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$841.57

$851.30

-1.14%

-$9.73

$834.17

0.89%

$845.90

-0.51%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$113.99

$116.29

-1.97%

-$2.29

$111.36

2.36%

$107.59

5.95%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

66.76%

65.09%

2.57%

1.67%

60.89%

9.64%

54.30%

22.95%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

84.18%

81.37%

3.45%

2.81%

69.89%

20.45%

61.89%

36.02%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

99.36%

94.02%

5.68%

5.34%

87.97%

12.95%

107.72%

-7.76%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

69.50%

68.63%

1.27%

0.87%

68.28%

1.79%

55.13%

26.07%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

49.56%

55.56%

-10.80%

-6.00%

52.46%

-5.53%

49.44%

0.24%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

172.94%

207.70%

-16.74%

-34.76%

110.80%

56.08%

54.64%

216.51%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

233.15%

314.94%

-25.97%

-81.79%

189.84%

22.81%

73.16%

218.69%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/31/23

8/30/23

% Change

Change

8/3/23

% Change

9/1/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 35.03

EUR 38.69

-9.46%

-EUR 3.66

EUR 35.69

-1.85%

EUR 178.04

-80.33%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 86.21

GBP 95.46

-9.68%

-GBP 9.24

GBP 90.43

-4.66%

GBP 468.36

-81.59%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 97.57

EUR 111.28

-12.32%

-EUR 13.71

EUR 93.85

3.96%

EUR 619.54

-84.25%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 82.13

GBP 92.19

-10.92%

-GBP 10.07

GBP 84.29

-2.57%

GBP 368.07

-77.69%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 104.37

EUR 105.18

-0.77%

-EUR 0.81

EUR 99.35

5.05%

EUR 704.10

-85.18%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 123.69

EUR 124.28

-0.47%

-EUR 0.59

EUR 111.79

10.65%

EUR 404.62

-69.43%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$13.19

$14.03

-5.97%

-$0.84

$11.26

17.15%

$44.89

-70.62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/26/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

22

-4

-36

442

61

-135

16.00%

-23.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

39

0

-28

582

12

-142

2.00%

-20.00%

 

 

E N Central

69

31

29

567

-51

-131

-8.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W N Central

103

52

52

852

54

-57

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

99

14

8

1,526

86

-112

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

119

39

41

1,270

46

-142

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

160

45

55

2,171

320

-81

17.00%

-4.00%

 

 

Mountain

63

-2

0

958

-16

-111

-2.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

38

-4

-28

523

14

-148

3.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

78

17

8

1,002

54

-120

6.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/26/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

0

6

20

-10

9

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

-2

2

6

-12

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

-6

-1

16

-13

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

1

-8

0

23

-12

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

1

-9

0

7

-32

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-3

3

6

-34

-3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-3

1

7

-13

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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