Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-04-2024

Sep 4, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:57 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.241

$2.203

1.72%

$0.038

48,773

 

 

WTI

$69.88

$70.34

-0.65%

-$0.46

205,522

 

 

Brent

$73.24

$78.77

-7.02%

-$5.53

24,831

 

 

ULSD

$2.180

$2.206

-1.17%

-$0.026

13,155

 

 

RBOB

$1.963

$1.978

-0.74%

-$0.015

14,560

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.11

$4.16

-1.20%

-$0.05

Nov-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$15.96

$16.27

-1.89%

-$0.31

Oct-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.46

$37.95

1.35%

$0.51

Oct-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/30/24

583

-2

-48

09/02/23

 

 

Canada

08/30/24

220

1

33

09/02/23

 

 

International

July

934

-23

-27

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/27/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

92,380

91,893

91,801

92

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

82,999

82,798

82,037

761

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

349,415

334,262

337,496

-3,234

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

153,870

126,892

130,977

-4,085

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

151,900

144,010

143,491

519

 

 

NYM Ethanol

40,920

40,084

40,418

-334

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,494

164,455

165,033

-578

 

 

RBOB

344,316

327,528

326,157

1,371

 

 

HSC Basis

885,363

878,846

877,646

1,200

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.30

$3.30

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/23/19

 

 

 

8/23/24

8/16/24

Net Change

% Change

8/25/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

754

735

19

2.59%

751

0.40%

708

6.53%

 

 

Midwest

909

888

21

2.36%

853

6.57%

831

9.36%

 

 

Mountain

266

263

3

1.14%

213

24.88%

189

40.59%

 

 

Pacific

287

288

-1

-0.35%

248

15.73%

263

9.21%

 

 

South

1,119

1,125

-6

-0.53%

1,050

6.57%

1,007

11.17%

 

 

    Salt

272

280

-8

-2.86%

249

9.24%

234

16.04%

 

 

    Non_Salt

847

845

2

0.24%

801

5.74%

773

9.63%

 

 

Total

3,334

3,299

35

1.06%

3,115

7.03%

2,998

11.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-24

$43.24

$42.66

1.34%

$0.57

$42.58

1.55%

$43.01

0.52%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-24

$33.31

$35.08

-5.03%

-$1.77

$43.14

-22.78%

$41.76

-20.22%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-24

$27.41

$25.41

7.88%

$2.00

$34.00

-19.39%

$61.70

-55.57%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-24

$40.99

$40.39

1.47%

$0.59

$41.37

-0.92%

$46.02

-10.94%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-24

$39.41

$38.56

2.22%

$0.85

$38.20

3.17%

$44.53

-11.50%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-24

$50.44

$46.88

7.60%

$3.56

$67.80

-25.60%

$69.49

-27.41%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-24

$35.07

$35.21

-0.40%

-$0.14

$34.48

1.71%

$40.77

-13.97%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-24

$2.203

$2.127

3.57%

$0.08

$2.05

7.73%

$3.43

-35.85%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-24

-$0.541

-$0.527

2.60%

-$0.01

-$0.43

25.54%

-$0.35

55.88%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-24

-$0.456

-$0.468

2.66%

$0.01

-$0.41

11.58%

-$0.28

60.06%

 

 

Waha

Oct-24

-$2.128

-$1.981

-7.46%

-$0.15

-$2.10

1.42%

-$0.73

191.96%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-24

-$0.564

-$0.545

-3.60%

-$0.02

-$0.57

-0.48%

-$0.62

-9.29%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-24

-$1.468

-$1.416

3.69%

-$0.05

-$1.30

13.02%

-$1.11

32.75%

 

 

Socal

Oct-24

-$0.466

-$0.448

4.06%

-$0.02

-$0.28

68.09%

$0.50

-192.54%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-24

$0.750

$0.772

-2.92%

-$0.02

$0.74

1.24%

$0.77

-3.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-24

$0.749

$0.775

-3.40%

-$0.03

$0.73

2.56%

$0.77

-3.21%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-24

$0.165

$0.166

-0.87%

$0.00

$0.16

0.65%

$0.27

-39.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.443

$1.486

-2.94%

-$0.04

$1.46

-1.00%

$1.57

-7.86%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-24

$0.983

$0.999

-1.62%

-$0.02

$0.89

10.12%

$0.91

8.34%

 

 

Far East Propane

Oct-24

$6.391

$6.502

-1.71%

-$0.11

$6.25

2.32%

$5.77

10.66%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Oct-24

$6.000

$6.150

-2.44%

-$0.15

$5.88

2.12%

$5.36

11.85%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-24

$70.34

$73.55

-4.56%

-$3.21

$72.20

-2.58%

$77.98

-9.80%

 

 

Brent

Oct-24

$73.97

$77.26

-4.44%

-$3.28

$76.30

-3.05%

$82.47

-10.31%

 

 

WCS

Oct-24

-$13.22

-$15.13

-14.50%

$1.92

-$15.55

-15.00%

-$12.89

2.51%

 

 

LLS

Oct-24

$71.27

$74.74

-4.87%

-$3.47

$73.75

-3.36%

$79.71

-10.59%

 

 

Mars

Oct-24

$70.77

$72.37

-2.26%

-$1.60

$71.53

-1.07%

$78.01

-9.28%

 

 

Sour

Oct-24

$70.66

$73.58

-4.14%

-$2.92

$72.99

-3.19%

$78.74

-10.25%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-24

$71.97

$75.26

-4.56%

-$3.28

$74.30

-3.13%

$80.47

-10.56%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-24

$2.20

$2.28

-3.29%

-$0.08

$2.34

-5.69%

$2.67

-17.29%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.98

$2.09

-5.30%

-$0.11

$2.16

-8.33%

$2.30

-13.68%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.88

$1.99

-5.57%

-$0.11

$2.06

-8.73%

$2.20

-14.30%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-24

$2.07

$2.15

-3.73%

-$0.08

$2.19

-5.58%

$2.41

-14.13%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-24

$1.83

$1.88

-2.29%

-$0.04

$1.74

5.59%

$1.81

1.16%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-24

$638.05

$659.01

-3.18%

-$20.96

$662.06

-3.63%

$769.73

-17.11%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-24

$88.18

$89.65

-1.65%

-$1.47

$89.61

-1.59%

$102.64

-14.09%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-24

62.00%

63.35%

-2.13%

-1.35%

69.26%

-10.48%

46.75%

32.62%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-24

84.75%

93.40%

-9.26%

-8.65%

84.74%

0.01%

51.31%

65.17%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-24

1485.15%

1505.65%

-1.36%

-20.50%

841.37%

76.52%

60.67%

2347.91%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-24

80.67%

86.53%

-6.77%

-5.86%

81.97%

-1.59%

48.14%

67.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-24

46.38%

45.32%

2.34%

1.06%

50.38%

-7.94%

44.26%

4.79%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-24

220.19%

211.33%

4.19%

8.86%

125.93%

74.85%

32.26%

582.55%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-24

139.44%

142.76%

-2.33%

-3.32%

234.49%

-40.53%

55.61%

150.75%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-24

EUR 36.91

EUR 39.42

-6.36%

-EUR 2.51

EUR 36.66

0.70%

EUR 52.49

-29.67%

 

 

NBP

Oct-24

GBP 88.27

GBP 95.59

-7.65%

-GBP 7.32

GBP 90.76

-2.74%

GBP 137.03

-35.58%

 

 

German Base

Oct-24

EUR 84.34

EUR 90.38

-6.68%

-EUR 6.03

EUR 86.26

-2.22%

EUR 141.84

-40.53%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-24

GBP 74.13

GBP 77.82

-4.74%

-GBP 3.69

GBP 74.73

-0.81%

GBP 129.41

-42.72%

 

 

French Base

Oct-24

EUR 68.23

EUR 77.16

-11.57%

-EUR 8.92

EUR 71.67

-4.79%

EUR 167.61

-59.29%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-24

EUR 119.22

EUR 126.81

-5.99%

-EUR 7.59

EUR 113.47

5.07%

EUR 155.73

-23.44%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-24

$13.29

$14.19

-6.32%

-$0.90

$13.12

1.34%

$17.48

-23.95%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/3/24

8/30/24

% Change

Change

8/5/24

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Oct-24

$36.91

$39.42

-6.36%

-$2.51

$36.66

0.70%

$52.49

-29.67%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Oct-24

$88.27

$95.59

-7.65%

-$7.32

$90.76

-2.74%

$137.03

-35.58%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Oct-24

$84.34

$90.38

-6.68%

-$6.03

$86.26

-2.22%

$141.84

-40.53%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Oct-24

$74.13

$77.82

-4.74%

-$3.69

$74.73

-0.81%

$129.41

-42.72%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Oct-24

$68.23

$77.16

-11.57%

-$8.92

$71.67

-4.79%

$167.61

-59.29%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$119.22

$126.81

-5.99%

-$7.59

$113.47

5.07%

$155.73

-23.44%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$13.29

$14.19

-6.32%

-$0.90

$13.12

1.34%

$17.48

-23.95%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/31/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

23

2

-2

547

152

87

38.00%

19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

48

15

6

728

136

120

23.00%

20.00%

 

 

E N Central

80

48

54

690

49

114

8.00%

20.00%

 

 

W N Central

83

39

30

843

15

-44

2.00%

-5.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

98

17

-1

1,685

187

84

12.00%

5.00%

 

 

E S Central

105

31

12

1,483

206

148

16.00%

11.00%

 

 

W S Central

118

8

-18

2,169

239

-107

12.00%

-5.00%

 

 

Mountain

57

-3

-20

1,117

100

96

10.00%

10.00%

 

 

Pacific

41

1

-18

665

127

92

24.00%

16.00%

 

 

United States

74

19

6

1,121

134

70

14.00%

7.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/31/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

-3

2

26

-11

3

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

-4

0

13

-9

6

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

-9

-14

36

1

6

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

1

-11

-3

31

-13

5

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

2

1

2

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

2

1

1

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

6

-7

4

12

-37

4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

5

-3

2

18

-28

9

NA

NA

 

 

United States

2

-3

-2

15

-9

4

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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