Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-05-2023

Sep 5, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:04 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.613

$2.765

-5.50%

-$0.152

86,382

 

 

WTI

$87.15

$85.55

1.87%

$1.60

245,737

 

 

Brent

$90.22

$86.84

3.89%

$3.38

26,325

 

 

ULSD

$3.179

$3.105

2.39%

$0.074

26,892

 

 

RBOB

$2.639

$2.591

1.85%

$0.048

20,519

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.88

$3.80

2.11%

$0.08

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.81

$28.13

2.40%

$0.68

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$34.32

$31.33

9.53%

$2.99

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/01/23

631

-1

-129

09/02/22

 

 

Canada

09/01/23

187

-3

-21

09/02/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/29/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,430

107,002

107,029

-27

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

91,770

91,240

91,111

129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

432,350

407,777

420,919

-13,142

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

153,627

127,458

122,151

5,307

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

141,803

132,187

132,718

-531

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,183

36,749

36,832

-83

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,914

161,294

161,574

-280

 

 

RBOB

372,645

348,834

359,772

-10,938

 

 

HSC Basis

634,483

630,513

624,775

5,738

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/31/18

 

 

 

8/25/23

8/18/23

Net Change

% Change

8/26/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

751

731

20

2.74%

614

22.31%

696

7.84%

 

 

Midwest

853

831

22

2.65%

747

14.19%

808

5.60%

 

 

Mountain

213

206

7

3.40%

157

35.67%

180

18.46%

 

 

Pacific

248

242

6

2.48%

241

2.90%

262

-5.34%

 

 

South

1,050

1,072

-22

-2.05%

881

19.18%

959

9.49%

 

 

    Salt

249

260

-11

-4.23%

185

34.59%

220

13.28%

 

 

    Non_Salt

801

813

-12

-1.48%

696

15.09%

739

8.36%

 

 

Total

3,115

3,083

32

1.04%

2,640

17.99%

2,905

7.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$39.91

$37.25

7.15%

$2.66

$37.05

7.72%

$69.52

-42.59%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$52.02

$49.80

4.46%

$2.22

$46.83

11.09%

$70.16

-25.85%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$61.26

$62.11

-1.37%

-$0.85

$78.20

-21.67%

$76.23

-19.65%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$43.92

$41.66

5.41%

$2.25

$43.50

0.95%

$71.60

-38.67%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$34.25

$46.30

-26.03%

-$12.05

$33.11

3.43%

$66.20

-48.27%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$75.80

$74.14

2.24%

$1.66

$91.44

-17.11%

$83.76

-9.50%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$34.09

$35.23

-3.25%

-$1.15

$33.42

1.99%

$57.04

-40.24%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.765

$2.768

-0.11%

$0.00

$2.68

3.13%

$5.90

-53.14%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.287

-$0.304

-5.65%

$0.02

-$0.32

-10.64%

-$0.27

6.33%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.280

-$0.277

-0.89%

$0.00

-$0.25

11.30%

-$0.28

-1.69%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.787

-$0.822

-4.27%

$0.04

-$0.60

31.10%

-$1.99

-60.44%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.034

-$1.030

-0.42%

$0.00

-$0.87

18.95%

-$1.25

-17.24%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.719

-$0.718

0.21%

$0.00

-$0.61

17.34%

-$1.98

-63.69%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$1.448

$1.346

7.58%

$0.10

$2.31

-37.33%

-$0.26

-653.46%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.733

$0.710

3.18%

$0.02

$0.77

-5.14%

$0.94

-22.08%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.728

$0.709

2.65%

$0.02

$0.78

-6.10%

$0.95

-23.29%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.281

$0.276

1.81%

$0.01

$0.24

17.22%

$0.40

-29.49%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.623

$1.643

-1.21%

-$0.02

$1.55

4.58%

$1.53

6.24%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.906

$0.878

3.29%

$0.03

$0.90

1.28%

$1.05

-13.85%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.738

$0.715

3.13%

$0.02

$0.77

-4.66%

$0.95

-22.72%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.694

$1.693

0.06%

$0.00

$1.59

6.30%

$1.58

7.35%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$83.63

$83.63

0.00%

$0.00

$82.27

1.65%

$78.83

6.09%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$87.15

$87.15

0.00%

$0.00

$86.24

1.06%

$83.81

3.99%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$17.82

-$14.82

16.84%

-$3.00

-$16.51

7.93%

-$17.75

0.41%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$85.02

$83.94

1.27%

$1.08

$83.51

1.82%

$80.88

5.13%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$84.17

$81.97

2.62%

$2.21

$81.95

2.71%

$76.95

9.39%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$86.47

$83.25

3.73%

$3.23

$82.59

4.70%

$79.09

9.34%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$85.15

$85.15

0.00%

$0.00

$84.24

1.08%

$81.43

4.57%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.11

$3.06

1.60%

$0.05

$3.03

2.61%

$2.93

6.18%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.60

$2.59

0.19%

$0.01

$2.54

2.17%

$2.24

15.69%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.49

$2.49

0.20%

$0.00

$2.44

2.25%

$2.14

16.43%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$2.88

$2.84

1.37%

$0.04

$2.80

2.82%

$2.64

8.93%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.15

$2.13

0.70%

$0.02

$2.00

7.50%

$2.01

6.97%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$844.19

$818.01

3.20%

$26.18

$822.98

2.58%

$813.05

3.83%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$115.53

$110.95

4.13%

$4.58

$112.56

2.64%

$108.07

6.91%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

65.27%

66.76%

-2.23%

-1.49%

59.64%

9.44%

54.11%

20.62%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

82.22%

84.18%

-2.33%

-1.96%

65.52%

25.49%

57.34%

43.39%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

93.79%

99.36%

-5.61%

-5.57%

84.05%

11.59%

101.68%

-7.76%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

67.88%

69.50%

-2.33%

-1.62%

68.31%

-0.63%

53.63%

26.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

53.04%

49.56%

7.02%

3.48%

49.83%

6.44%

49.55%

7.04%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

192.49%

172.94%

11.30%

19.55%

117.49%

63.84%

47.61%

304.31%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

302.69%

233.15%

29.83%

69.54%

198.23%

52.70%

73.32%

312.83%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/1/23

8/31/23

% Change

Change

8/4/23

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 37.35

EUR 35.03

6.62%

EUR 2.32

EUR 34.13

9.42%

EUR 159.25

-76.55%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 91.49

GBP 86.21

6.11%

GBP 5.27

GBP 85.21

7.36%

GBP 432.21

-78.83%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 95.24

EUR 97.57

-2.39%

-EUR 2.33

EUR 93.37

2.00%

EUR 547.51

-82.60%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 91.68

GBP 82.13

11.63%

GBP 9.55

GBP 83.27

10.10%

GBP 270.62

-66.12%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 98.29

EUR 104.37

-5.82%

-EUR 6.08

EUR 98.88

-0.59%

EUR 661.88

-85.15%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 117.08

EUR 123.69

-5.35%

-EUR 6.62

EUR 112.02

4.51%

EUR 293.70

-60.14%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$12.89

$12.96

-0.56%

-$0.07

$11.72

9.96%

$43.15

-70.13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

18

-1

-26

460

60

-161

15.00%

-26.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-3

-31

610

10

-173

2.00%

-22.00%

 

 

E N Central

14

-16

-35

581

-67

-166

-10.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

-17

898

59

-74

7.00%

-8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

5

-11

1,610

91

-123

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

74

2

-14

1,344

48

-157

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

123

15

7

2,293

334

-73

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

70

12

-6

1,027

-5

-118

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

12

-17

574

26

-164

5.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

56

3

-18

1,058

57

-138

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

8

-3

3

28

-13

12

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

3

-2

2

9

-15

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

17

8

16

33

-5

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-9

3

27

-21

17

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-13

2

9

-45

7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-5

2

9

-39

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

5

-1

4

12

-14

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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