Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-06-2023

Sep 6, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.514

$2.582

-2.63%

-$0.068

32,530

 

 

WTI

$86.31

$86.69

-0.44%

-$0.38

97,715

 

 

Brent

$89.57

$90.04

-0.52%

-$0.47

7,470

 

 

ULSD

$3.174

$3.220

-1.41%

-$0.045

7,997

 

 

RBOB

$2.583

$2.581

0.09%

$0.002

7,656

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.87

$4.03

-3.97%

-$0.16

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.01

$28.43

-1.48%

-$0.42

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.99

$34.39

-4.06%

-$1.40

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/01/23

631

-1

-129

09/02/22

 

 

Canada

09/01/23

187

-3

-21

09/02/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/29/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,430

107,002

107,029

-27

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

91,770

91,240

91,111

129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

432,350

407,777

420,919

-13,142

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

153,627

127,458

122,151

5,307

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

141,803

132,187

132,718

-531

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,183

36,749

36,832

-83

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,914

161,294

161,574

-280

 

 

RBOB

372,645

348,834

359,772

-10,938

 

 

HSC Basis

634,483

630,513

624,775

5,738

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/31/18

 

 

 

8/25/23

8/18/23

Net Change

% Change

8/26/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

751

731

20

2.74%

614

22.31%

696

7.84%

 

 

Midwest

853

831

22

2.65%

747

14.19%

808

5.60%

 

 

Mountain

213

206

7

3.40%

157

35.67%

180

18.46%

 

 

Pacific

248

242

6

2.48%

241

2.90%

262

-5.34%

 

 

South

1,050

1,072

-22

-2.05%

881

19.18%

959

9.49%

 

 

    Salt

249

260

-11

-4.23%

185

34.59%

220

13.28%

 

 

    Non_Salt

801

813

-12

-1.48%

696

15.09%

739

8.36%

 

 

Total

3,115

3,083

32

1.04%

2,640

17.99%

2,905

7.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$38.38

$39.91

-3.84%

-$1.53

$38.41

-0.08%

$67.85

-43.44%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$48.84

$52.02

-6.12%

-$3.18

$47.63

2.54%

$70.12

-30.35%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$59.50

$61.26

-2.87%

-$1.76

$76.78

-22.51%

$77.02

-22.75%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$42.17

$43.92

-3.97%

-$1.74

$45.06

-6.41%

$69.89

-39.66%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$32.51

$34.25

-5.08%

-$1.74

$36.64

-11.27%

$62.48

-47.97%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$70.19

$75.80

-7.40%

-$5.61

$95.43

-26.45%

$80.32

-12.62%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$32.62

$34.09

-4.31%

-$1.47

$36.33

-10.23%

$55.14

-40.85%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.582

$2.765

-6.62%

-$0.18

$2.81

-8.21%

$5.72

-54.86%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.232

-$0.287

-19.36%

$0.06

-$0.33

-29.04%

-$0.27

-12.70%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.215

-$0.280

30.03%

$0.06

-$0.25

-14.34%

-$0.28

-22.90%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.825

-$0.787

-4.86%

-$0.04

-$0.59

40.06%

-$1.94

-57.53%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$0.962

-$1.034

6.97%

$0.07

-$0.93

3.36%

-$1.25

-22.79%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.714

-$0.719

-0.67%

$0.00

-$0.65

10.64%

-$2.02

-64.71%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$1.403

$1.448

-3.16%

-$0.05

$2.75

-49.06%

-$0.27

-626.50%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.743

$0.733

1.34%

$0.01

$0.76

-2.43%

$0.94

-21.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.743

$0.728

2.04%

$0.01

$0.77

-2.94%

$0.95

-21.68%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.273

$0.281

-2.79%

-$0.01

$0.25

11.59%

$0.41

-33.32%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.627

$1.623

0.22%

$0.00

$1.55

4.82%

$1.55

4.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.916

$0.906

1.08%

$0.01

$0.89

2.76%

$1.04

-12.14%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.750

$0.738

1.66%

$0.01

$0.77

-2.37%

$0.96

-21.88%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.644

$1.694

-2.93%

-$0.05

$1.60

2.75%

$1.64

0.53%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$86.69

$85.81

1.02%

$0.89

$81.49

6.38%

$79.20

9.46%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$90.42

$89.64

0.86%

$0.78

$85.34

5.96%

$84.03

7.61%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$18.14

-$14.55

19.79%

-$3.59

-$15.54

16.76%

-$17.80

1.94%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$87.87

$87.61

0.30%

$0.26

$83.36

5.41%

$79.51

10.52%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$87.07

$86.93

0.17%

$0.14

$81.08

7.39%

$75.74

14.95%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$88.43

$86.47

2.21%

$1.95

$81.72

8.20%

$78.02

13.33%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$88.42

$87.64

0.88%

$0.78

$83.34

6.10%

$82.77

6.83%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.22

$3.11

3.57%

$0.11

$3.01

6.94%

$2.91

10.73%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.58

$2.60

-0.50%

-$0.01

$2.58

0.12%

$2.30

12.26%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.48

$2.49

-0.52%

-$0.01

$2.48

0.12%

$2.20

12.82%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.00

$2.88

4.31%

$0.12

$2.81

6.72%

$2.61

15.24%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.15

$2.15

0.00%

$0.00

$2.00

7.50%

$2.09

3.12%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$855.80

$844.19

1.38%

$11.61

$823.51

3.92%

$790.22

8.30%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$118.93

$115.53

2.94%

$3.40

$113.47

4.81%

$108.71

9.40%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

62.20%

65.27%

-4.70%

-3.07%

56.16%

10.75%

59.16%

5.14%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

75.13%

82.22%

-8.62%

-7.09%

65.44%

14.81%

67.10%

11.97%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

96.27%

93.79%

2.64%

2.48%

81.25%

18.49%

107.75%

-10.65%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

59.98%

67.88%

-11.64%

-7.90%

64.51%

-7.02%

59.53%

0.76%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

55.04%

53.04%

3.77%

2.00%

50.32%

9.38%

49.70%

10.74%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

187.75%

192.49%

-2.46%

-4.74%

123.34%

52.22%

54.91%

241.92%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

298.73%

302.69%

-1.31%

-3.96%

206.14%

44.92%

73.49%

306.49%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/5/23

9/1/23

% Change

Change

8/7/23

% Change

9/6/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 34.54

EUR 37.35

-7.51%

-EUR 2.80

EUR 35.15

-1.72%

EUR 190.28

-81.85%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 83.25

GBP 91.49

-9.00%

-GBP 8.24

GBP 87.58

-4.95%

GBP 504.41

-83.50%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 91.52

EUR 95.24

-3.90%

-EUR 3.72

EUR 94.61

-3.26%

EUR 613.15

-85.07%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 83.18

GBP 91.68

-9.27%

-GBP 8.49

GBP 85.44

-2.64%

GBP 361.25

-76.97%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 96.28

EUR 98.29

-2.05%

-EUR 2.01

EUR 99.96

-3.69%

EUR 700.55

-86.26%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 113.32

EUR 117.08

-3.21%

-EUR 3.75

EUR 113.50

-0.16%

EUR 373.12

-69.63%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$13.29

$12.89

3.13%

$0.40

$12.43

6.96%

$45.20

-70.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

18

-1

-26

460

60

-161

15.00%

-26.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-3

-31

610

10

-173

2.00%

-22.00%

 

 

E N Central

14

-16

-35

581

-67

-166

-10.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

-17

898

59

-74

7.00%

-8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

5

-11

1,610

91

-123

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

74

2

-14

1,344

48

-157

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

123

15

7

2,293

334

-73

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

70

12

-6

1,027

-5

-118

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

12

-17

574

26

-164

5.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

56

3

-18

1,058

57

-138

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

8

-3

3

28

-13

12

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

3

-2

2

9

-15

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

17

8

16

33

-5

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-9

3

27

-21

17

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-13

2

9

-45

7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-5

2

9

-39

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

5

-1

4

12

-14

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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