Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-07-2023

Sep 7, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:50 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.513

$2.510

0.12%

$0.003

27,108

 

 

WTI

$87.53

$87.54

-0.01%

-$0.01

90,666

 

 

Brent

$90.53

$90.60

-0.08%

-$0.07

6,715

 

 

ULSD

$3.187

$3.193

-0.18%

-$0.006

9,748

 

 

RBOB

$2.622

$2.601

0.79%

$0.021

9,622

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.79

$3.81

-0.52%

-$0.02

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$28.35

$27.99

1.30%

$0.36

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.63

$33.01

-1.16%

-$0.38

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/01/23

631

-1

-129

09/02/22

 

 

Canada

09/01/23

187

-3

-21

09/02/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/29/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,430

107,002

107,029

-27

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

91,770

91,240

91,111

129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

432,350

407,777

420,919

-13,142

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

153,627

127,458

122,151

5,307

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

141,803

132,187

132,718

-531

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,183

36,749

36,832

-83

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,914

161,294

161,574

-280

 

 

RBOB

372,645

348,834

359,772

-10,938

 

 

HSC Basis

634,483

630,513

624,775

5,738

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/31/18

 

 

 

8/25/23

8/18/23

Net Change

% Change

8/26/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

751

731

20

2.74%

614

22.31%

696

7.84%

 

 

Midwest

853

831

22

2.65%

747

14.19%

808

5.60%

 

 

Mountain

213

206

7

3.40%

157

35.67%

180

18.46%

 

 

Pacific

248

242

6

2.48%

241

2.90%

262

-5.34%

 

 

South

1,050

1,072

-22

-2.05%

881

19.18%

959

9.49%

 

 

    Salt

249

260

-11

-4.23%

185

34.59%

220

13.28%

 

 

    Non_Salt

801

813

-12

-1.48%

696

15.09%

739

8.36%

 

 

Total

3,115

3,083

32

1.04%

2,640

17.99%

2,905

7.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$38.02

$38.38

-0.94%

-$0.36

$39.04

-2.62%

$65.70

-42.14%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$48.35

$48.84

-1.00%

-$0.49

$48.19

0.33%

$67.72

-28.61%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$57.07

$59.50

-4.08%

-$2.43

$72.31

-21.08%

$76.67

-25.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$41.94

$42.17

-0.55%

-$0.23

$44.59

-5.95%

$67.72

-38.06%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$32.88

$32.51

1.15%

$0.37

$35.08

-6.27%

$60.35

-45.52%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$72.93

$70.19

3.90%

$2.74

$88.86

-17.94%

$75.00

-2.77%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$32.58

$32.62

-0.13%

-$0.04

$34.22

-4.80%

$53.17

-38.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.510

$2.582

-2.79%

-$0.07

$2.86

-12.36%

$5.41

-53.61%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.303

-$0.232

30.66%

-$0.07

-$0.33

-7.23%

-$0.27

10.52%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.287

-$0.215

-24.92%

-$0.07

-$0.26

10.58%

-$0.29

0.21%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.850

-$0.825

-3.07%

-$0.03

-$0.58

47.72%

-$2.02

-57.98%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$0.967

-$0.962

-0.59%

-$0.01

-$0.89

8.57%

-$1.26

-22.97%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.695

-$0.714

-2.73%

$0.02

-$0.64

7.82%

-$1.98

-64.84%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$0.989

$1.403

-29.51%

-$0.41

$2.08

-52.55%

-$0.27

-459.92%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.744

$0.743

0.15%

$0.00

$0.76

-1.81%

$0.92

-18.89%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.744

$0.743

0.15%

$0.00

$0.76

-1.77%

$0.92

-19.54%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.279

$0.273

1.95%

$0.01

$0.26

9.30%

$0.37

-24.45%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.648

$1.627

1.32%

$0.02

$1.53

8.04%

$1.51

9.21%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.900

$0.916

-1.79%

-$0.02

$0.89

1.12%

$1.00

-10.40%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.750

$0.750

0.02%

$0.00

$0.75

-0.61%

$0.92

-18.75%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.662

$1.644

1.09%

$0.02

$1.57

5.65%

$1.57

5.54%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$87.54

$86.69

0.97%

$0.85

$82.36

6.29%

$75.57

15.84%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$91.01

$90.42

0.64%

$0.59

$86.17

5.62%

$80.37

13.24%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$17.79

-$18.14

-2.01%

$0.36

-$15.54

14.48%

-$17.80

-0.07%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$89.11

$87.87

1.39%

$1.24

$83.78

6.37%

$76.93

15.83%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$85.45

$87.07

-1.90%

-$1.62

$81.86

4.39%

$73.40

16.40%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$86.72

$88.43

-1.96%

-$1.70

$82.08

5.65%

$72.55

19.54%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$89.01

$88.42

0.66%

$0.59

$84.17

5.75%

$79.18

12.42%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.20

$3.22

-0.71%

-$0.02

$3.05

4.72%

$2.86

11.75%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.57

$2.58

-0.43%

-$0.01

$2.61

-1.31%

$2.16

19.03%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.47

$2.48

-0.44%

-$0.01

$2.51

-1.36%

$2.06

19.95%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$2.97

$3.00

-1.00%

-$0.03

$2.83

5.09%

$2.62

13.44%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.14

$2.15

-0.65%

-$0.01

$2.01

6.37%

$2.08

2.64%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$861.50

$855.80

0.67%

$5.70

$805.03

7.02%

$793.24

8.60%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$116.90

$118.93

-1.70%

-$2.02

$110.72

5.58%

$104.71

11.64%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

66.79%

62.20%

7.38%

4.59%

57.87%

15.41%

56.62%

17.96%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

83.11%

75.13%

10.62%

7.98%

67.17%

23.73%

67.32%

23.46%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

103.02%

96.27%

7.01%

6.75%

79.50%

29.58%

113.58%

-9.30%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

70.46%

59.98%

17.47%

10.48%

66.70%

5.64%

58.26%

20.94%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

53.01%

55.04%

-3.69%

-2.03%

49.54%

7.00%

48.90%

8.40%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

199.66%

187.75%

6.34%

11.91%

119.99%

66.40%

54.67%

265.21%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

265.20%

298.73%

-11.22%

-33.53%

205.23%

29.22%

72.95%

263.54%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/6/23

9/5/23

% Change

Change

8/8/23

% Change

9/7/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 30.19

EUR 34.54

-12.60%

-EUR 4.35

EUR 35.22

-14.29%

EUR 190.00

-84.11%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 74.13

GBP 83.25

-10.95%

-GBP 9.12

GBP 87.70

-15.47%

GBP 489.31

-84.85%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 86.07

EUR 91.52

-5.96%

-EUR 5.46

EUR 93.67

-8.12%

EUR 439.86

-80.43%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 72.84

GBP 83.18

-12.44%

-GBP 10.35

GBP 87.56

-16.82%

GBP 369.84

-80.31%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 91.56

EUR 96.28

-4.90%

-EUR 4.71

EUR 91.98

-0.46%

EUR 569.55

-83.92%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 112.45

EUR 113.32

-0.77%

-EUR 0.87

EUR 112.35

0.09%

EUR 372.45

-69.81%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$12.73

$13.29

-4.24%

-$0.56

$12.30

3.49%

$51.03

-75.05%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

18

-1

-26

460

60

-161

15.00%

-26.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-3

-31

610

10

-173

2.00%

-22.00%

 

 

E N Central

14

-16

-35

581

-67

-166

-10.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

-17

898

59

-74

7.00%

-8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

5

-11

1,610

91

-123

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

74

2

-14

1,344

48

-157

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

123

15

7

2,293

334

-73

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

70

12

-6

1,027

-5

-118

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

12

-17

574

26

-164

5.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

56

3

-18

1,058

57

-138

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

8

-3

3

28

-13

12

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

3

-2

2

9

-15

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

17

8

16

33

-5

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-9

3

27

-21

17

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-13

2

9

-45

7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-5

2

9

-39

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

5

-1

4

12

-14

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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