Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-08-2023

Sep 8, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:08 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.621

$2.579

1.63%

$0.042

34,520

 

 

WTI

$87.01

$86.87

0.16%

$0.14

126,416

 

 

Brent

$90.20

$89.92

0.31%

$0.28

11,671

 

 

ULSD

$3.281

$3.212

2.15%

$0.069

20,909

 

 

RBOB

$2.651

$2.623

1.08%

$0.028

25,308

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.91

$3.77

3.71%

$0.14

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$30.62

$29.38

4.21%

$1.24

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$32.13

$32.50

-1.14%

-$0.37

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/01/23

631

-1

-129

09/02/22

 

 

Canada

09/01/23

187

-3

-21

09/02/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/29/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

107,430

107,002

107,029

-27

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

91,770

91,240

91,111

129

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

432,350

407,777

420,919

-13,142

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

153,627

127,458

122,151

5,307

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

141,803

132,187

132,718

-531

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,183

36,749

36,832

-83

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,914

161,294

161,574

-280

 

 

RBOB

372,645

348,834

359,772

-10,938

 

 

HSC Basis

634,483

630,513

624,775

5,738

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/07/18

 

 

 

9/1/23

8/25/23

Net Change

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

766

751

15

2.00%

635

20.63%

712

7.55%

 

 

Midwest

877

853

24

2.81%

776

13.02%

834

5.18%

 

 

Mountain

218

213

5

2.35%

159

37.11%

183

19.13%

 

 

Pacific

252

248

4

1.61%

238

5.88%

263

-4.11%

 

 

South

1,035

1,050

-15

-1.43%

887

16.69%

967

6.99%

 

 

    Salt

241

249

-8

-3.21%

182

32.42%

221

8.95%

 

 

    Non_Salt

795

801

-6

-0.75%

705

12.77%

746

6.54%

 

 

Total

3,148

3,115

33

1.06%

2,694

16.85%

2,959

6.37%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$37.71

$38.02

-0.80%

-$0.30

$40.39

-6.62%

$64.93

-41.92%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$50.59

$48.35

4.63%

$2.24

$51.33

-1.44%

$64.99

-22.16%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$54.40

$57.07

-4.67%

-$2.66

$74.16

-26.64%

$74.20

-26.68%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$41.98

$41.94

0.09%

$0.04

$46.52

-9.77%

$66.55

-36.92%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$31.27

$32.88

-4.89%

-$1.61

$34.79

-10.10%

$63.33

-50.62%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$72.64

$72.93

-0.39%

-$0.28

$93.37

-22.20%

$76.96

-5.62%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$31.09

$32.58

-4.57%

-$1.49

$34.09

-8.81%

$52.07

-40.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.579

$2.510

2.75%

$0.07

$3.05

-15.53%

$5.41

-52.37%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.315

-$0.303

4.06%

-$0.01

-$0.34

-7.36%

-$0.28

10.84%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.307

-$0.287

-6.80%

-$0.02

-$0.29

6.04%

-$0.28

11.01%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.915

-$0.850

-7.61%

-$0.06

-$0.57

60.43%

-$2.03

-54.87%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$0.956

-$0.967

1.23%

$0.01

-$0.89

7.08%

-$1.21

-20.99%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.719

-$0.695

3.50%

-$0.02

-$0.68

6.05%

-$1.93

-62.79%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$0.918

$0.989

-7.18%

-$0.07

$1.90

-51.77%

-$0.31

-398.44%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.749

$0.744

0.68%

$0.01

$0.76

-1.15%

$0.91

-17.58%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.745

$0.744

0.17%

$0.00

$0.75

-0.65%

$0.92

-18.60%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.282

$0.279

1.35%

$0.00

$0.27

5.55%

$0.38

-25.45%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.661

$1.648

0.76%

$0.01

$1.58

5.00%

$1.49

11.72%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.883

$0.900

-1.83%

-$0.02

$0.91

-2.67%

$1.00

-11.46%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.747

$0.750

-0.35%

$0.00

$0.75

-0.49%

$0.94

-20.07%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.709

$1.662

2.82%

$0.05

$1.62

5.56%

$1.53

11.33%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-23

$86.87

$87.54

-0.77%

-$0.67

$83.69

3.80%

$76.08

14.18%

 

 

Brent

Oct-23

$90.30

$91.01

-0.79%

-$0.71

$87.55

3.14%

$80.85

11.68%

 

 

WCS

Oct-23

-$15.71

-$17.79

-13.21%

$2.07

-$15.77

-0.38%

-$18.12

-13.29%

 

 

LLS

Oct-23

$88.11

$89.11

-1.13%

-$1.00

$85.14

3.49%

$77.49

13.70%

 

 

Mars

Oct-23

$86.36

$85.45

1.05%

$0.91

$83.16

3.84%

$73.63

17.29%

 

 

Sour

Oct-23

$87.49

$86.72

0.87%

$0.76

$83.33

4.99%

$74.53

17.38%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-23

$88.30

$89.01

-0.81%

-$0.71

$85.55

3.21%

$78.18

12.93%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.22

$3.20

0.84%

$0.03

$3.17

1.64%

$2.83

14.01%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.63

$2.57

2.14%

$0.05

$2.66

-1.28%

$2.24

17.18%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.53

$2.47

2.23%

$0.06

$2.56

-1.33%

$2.14

17.98%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$2.93

$2.97

-1.24%

-$0.04

$2.95

-0.54%

$2.60

12.71%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.15

$2.14

0.66%

$0.01

$2.04

5.65%

$1.98

8.48%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$867.50

$861.50

0.70%

$6.00

$846.45

2.49%

$783.22

10.76%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$116.39

$116.90

-0.44%

-$0.51

$115.49

0.77%

$102.34

13.72%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

63.61%

66.79%

-4.76%

-3.18%

56.52%

12.54%

54.19%

17.38%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

77.26%

83.11%

-7.04%

-5.85%

71.66%

7.81%

64.80%

19.23%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

94.39%

103.02%

-8.38%

-8.63%

77.28%

22.14%

101.46%

-6.97%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

64.93%

70.46%

-7.85%

-5.53%

62.43%

4.00%

55.27%

17.48%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

55.82%

53.01%

5.30%

2.81%

52.41%

6.51%

48.17%

15.88%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

146.08%

199.66%

-26.84%

-53.58%

118.93%

22.83%

59.00%

147.59%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

254.02%

265.20%

-4.22%

-11.18%

206.01%

23.30%

78.00%

225.67%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/7/23

9/6/23

% Change

Change

8/9/23

% Change

9/8/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 33.59

EUR 30.19

11.25%

EUR 3.40

EUR 42.95

-21.80%

EUR 192.06

-82.51%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 82.28

GBP 74.13

10.99%

GBP 8.15

GBP 110.49

-25.53%

GBP 505.90

-83.74%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 88.94

EUR 86.07

3.33%

EUR 2.87

EUR 110.95

-19.84%

EUR 509.95

-82.56%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 87.35

GBP 72.84

19.92%

GBP 14.51

GBP 95.51

-8.55%

GBP 391.96

-77.72%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 84.53

EUR 91.56

-7.68%

-EUR 7.03

EUR 108.80

-22.31%

EUR 565.14

-85.04%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 106.95

EUR 112.45

-4.89%

-EUR 5.50

EUR 114.13

-6.29%

EUR 343.54

-68.87%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$13.23

$12.73

3.93%

$0.50

$13.26

-0.24%

$46.03

-71.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

18

-1

-26

460

60

-161

15.00%

-26.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-3

-31

610

10

-173

2.00%

-22.00%

 

 

E N Central

14

-16

-35

581

-67

-166

-10.00%

-22.00%

 

 

W N Central

46

5

-17

898

59

-74

7.00%

-8.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

84

5

-11

1,610

91

-123

6.00%

-7.00%

 

 

E S Central

74

2

-14

1,344

48

-157

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

123

15

7

2,293

334

-73

17.00%

-3.00%

 

 

Mountain

70

12

-6

1,027

-5

-118

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

51

12

-17

574

26

-164

5.00%

-22.00%

 

 

United States

56

3

-18

1,058

57

-138

6.00%

-12.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/02/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

8

-3

3

28

-13

12

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

3

-2

2

9

-15

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

17

8

16

33

-5

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

-9

3

27

-21

17

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

2

-13

2

9

-45

7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-5

2

9

-39

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

5

-1

4

12

-14

5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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