Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-10-2024

Sep 10, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:17 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.228

$2.170

2.67%

$0.058

29,093

 

 

WTI

$67.82

$68.71

-1.30%

-$0.89

67,664

 

 

Brent

$70.97

$71.84

-1.21%

-$0.87

9,064

 

 

ULSD

$2.119

$2.139

-0.96%

-$0.021

5,042

 

 

RBOB

$1.908

$1.920

-0.62%

-$0.012

7,977

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.84

$3.93

-2.29%

-$0.09

Nov-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$15.53

$15.32

1.38%

$0.21

Oct-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$39.96

$40.63

-1.66%

-$0.67

Oct-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/06/24

582

-1

-50

09/09/23

 

 

Canada

09/06/24

220

0

38

09/09/23

 

 

International

August

931

-3

-21

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/3/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

93,973

93,496

93,389

107

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,918

84,755

83,976

779

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

331,102

317,111

320,127

-3,016

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

132,232

106,931

109,428

-2,497

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

134,900

127,610

127,117

493

 

 

NYM Ethanol

33,948

33,248

33,385

-137

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

168,410

167,383

167,902

-519

 

 

RBOB

337,469

320,509

316,717

3,792

 

 

HSC Basis

897,535

891,636

889,523

2,113

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$84.00

$86.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.20

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.30

$3.30

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

40.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/30/19

 

 

 

8/30/24

8/23/24

Net Change

% Change

9/1/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

761

754

7

0.93%

766

-0.65%

725

5.02%

 

 

Midwest

922

909

13

1.43%

877

5.13%

855

7.84%

 

 

Mountain

270

266

4

1.50%

218

23.85%

192

40.48%

 

 

Pacific

289

287

2

0.70%

252

14.68%

263

9.72%

 

 

South

1,105

1,119

-14

-1.25%

1,035

6.76%

1,011

9.30%

 

 

    Salt

267

272

-5

-1.84%

241

10.79%

233

14.79%

 

 

    Non_Salt

838

847

-9

-1.06%

795

5.41%

778

7.66%

 

 

Total

3,347

3,334

13

0.39%

3,148

6.32%

3,046

9.87%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-24

$44.74

$45.27

-1.17%

-$0.53

$43.32

3.29%

$41.72

7.24%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-24

$34.03

$33.99

0.12%

$0.04

$40.83

-16.65%

$40.78

-16.56%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-24

$24.75

$26.86

-7.84%

-$2.11

$31.75

-22.05%

$58.32

-57.56%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-24

$42.26

$43.02

-1.76%

-$0.76

$41.56

1.69%

$44.66

-5.39%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-24

$42.45

$41.32

2.73%

$1.13

$38.55

10.13%

$44.24

-4.05%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-24

$45.02

$47.36

-4.94%

-$2.34

$63.49

-29.09%

$67.16

-32.97%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-24

$38.04

$37.21

2.24%

$0.83

$34.81

9.29%

$39.79

-4.39%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-24

$2.170

$2.275

-4.62%

-$0.11

$2.29

-5.32%

$3.38

-35.86%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-24

-$0.463

-$0.497

-6.94%

$0.03

-$0.50

-8.14%

-$0.36

29.25%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-24

-$0.403

-$0.424

5.19%

$0.02

-$0.45

-9.72%

-$0.29

37.64%

 

 

Waha

Oct-24

-$1.464

-$1.630

-10.17%

$0.17

-$1.55

-5.40%

-$0.79

86.12%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-24

-$0.465

-$0.510

8.77%

$0.04

-$0.60

-23.00%

-$0.62

-25.34%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-24

-$1.502

-$1.514

-0.77%

$0.01

-$1.44

4.04%

-$1.17

28.37%

 

 

Socal

Oct-24

-$0.520

-$0.565

-8.03%

$0.05

-$0.37

39.88%

$0.38

-236.97%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-24

$0.667

$0.692

-3.61%

-$0.03

$0.78

-14.46%

$0.79

-15.22%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-24

$0.686

$0.702

-2.34%

-$0.02

$0.78

-12.27%

$0.80

-13.85%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-24

$0.159

$0.170

-6.24%

-$0.01

$0.19

-16.57%

$0.26

-39.44%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.396

$1.398

-0.09%

$0.00

$1.50

-6.77%

$1.57

-11.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-24

$0.879

$0.890

-1.27%

-$0.01

$0.90

-2.42%

$0.91

-3.11%

 

 

Far East Propane

Oct-24

$6.362

$6.275

1.39%

$0.09

$6.29

1.08%

$5.89

7.95%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Oct-24

$6.007

$6.000

0.11%

$0.01

$5.92

1.53%

$5.23

14.93%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Oct-24

$68.71

$67.67

1.51%

$1.04

$75.61

-9.13%

$79.16

-13.20%

 

 

Brent

Oct-24

$72.07

$71.22

1.17%

$0.84

$79.66

-9.53%

$83.77

-13.97%

 

 

WCS

Oct-24

-$13.16

-$13.45

-2.23%

$0.29

-$14.89

-11.62%

-$12.96

1.57%

 

 

LLS

Oct-24

$69.92

$69.06

1.24%

$0.87

$76.63

-8.75%

$81.04

-13.72%

 

 

Mars

Oct-24

$66.70

$66.04

0.99%

$0.66

$73.95

-9.79%

$78.29

-14.79%

 

 

Sour

Oct-24

$70.63

$69.64

1.41%

$1.00

$75.54

-6.50%

$79.86

-11.55%

 

 

ESPO

Oct-24

$70.07

$69.22

1.20%

$0.84

$77.66

-9.78%

$81.77

-14.31%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-24

$2.14

$2.12

0.99%

$0.02

$2.36

-9.19%

$2.75

-22.12%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.92

$1.90

1.05%

$0.02

$2.20

-12.51%

$2.33

-17.46%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.82

$1.80

1.11%

$0.02

$2.10

-13.10%

$2.23

-18.24%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-24

$2.01

$1.99

0.95%

$0.02

$2.22

-9.71%

$2.47

-18.53%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-24

$1.78

$1.80

-1.39%

-$0.02

$1.72

3.56%

$1.82

-2.42%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-24

$606.36

$611.13

-0.78%

-$4.78

$682.99

-11.22%

$766.56

-20.90%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-24

$83.37

$84.94

-1.85%

-$1.57

$93.52

-10.86%

$105.47

-20.95%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-24

63.62%

61.18%

3.99%

2.44%

62.45%

1.87%

47.70%

33.38%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-24

82.47%

83.96%

-1.77%

-1.49%

84.95%

-2.92%

51.22%

61.01%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-24

1411.98%

1455.58%

-3.00%

-43.60%

1461.56%

-3.39%

60.18%

2246.26%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-24

79.19%

79.21%

-0.03%

-0.02%

78.48%

0.90%

48.71%

62.57%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-24

46.70%

47.21%

-1.08%

-0.51%

49.63%

-5.90%

44.06%

5.99%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-24

243.39%

227.71%

6.89%

15.68%

142.54%

70.75%

28.46%

755.20%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-24

120.03%

154.39%

-22.26%

-34.36%

222.92%

-46.16%

54.88%

118.71%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-24

EUR 37.23

EUR 36.36

2.40%

EUR 0.87

EUR 40.94

-9.06%

EUR 50.97

-26.96%

 

 

NBP

Oct-24

GBP 89.90

GBP 87.68

2.53%

GBP 2.22

GBP 101.63

-11.53%

GBP 134.76

-33.28%

 

 

German Base

Oct-24

EUR 84.20

EUR 83.65

0.65%

EUR 0.55

EUR 93.21

-9.66%

EUR 137.47

-38.75%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-24

GBP 73.31

GBP 72.59

0.99%

GBP 0.72

GBP 83.12

-11.80%

GBP 125.35

-41.52%

 

 

French Base

Oct-24

EUR 69.59

EUR 67.21

3.55%

EUR 2.39

EUR 73.76

-5.65%

EUR 151.04

-53.92%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-24

EUR 115.54

EUR 118.39

-2.41%

-EUR 2.85

EUR 122.94

-6.02%

EUR 153.30

-24.63%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-24

$13.85

$13.84

0.10%

$0.01

$14.34

-3.42%

$16.72

-17.17%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/9/24

9/6/24

% Change

Change

8/9/24

% Change

9/8/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Oct-24

$37.23

$36.36

2.40%

$0.87

$40.94

-9.06%

$50.97

-26.96%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Oct-24

$89.90

$87.68

2.53%

$2.22

$101.63

-11.53%

$134.76

-33.28%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Oct-24

$84.20

$83.65

0.65%

$0.55

$93.21

-9.66%

$137.47

-38.75%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Oct-24

$73.31

$72.59

0.99%

$0.72

$83.12

-11.80%

$125.35

-41.52%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Oct-24

$69.59

$67.21

3.55%

$2.39

$73.76

-5.65%

$151.04

-53.92%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$115.54

$118.39

-2.41%

-$2.85

$122.94

-6.02%

$153.30

-24.63%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Oct-24

$13.85

$13.84

0.10%

$0.01

$14.34

-3.42%

$16.72

-17.17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/07/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

10

-3

-36

557

149

42

37.00%

8.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

14

-11

-36

742

125

76

20.00%

12.00%

 

 

E N Central

12

-13

-40

702

37

74

6.00%

12.00%

 

 

W N Central

23

-11

-42

866

4

-82

0.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

70

-4

-17

1,755

183

62

12.00%

4.00%

 

 

E S Central

71

5

-13

1,554

211

136

16.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

92

-9

-45

2,261

230

-156

11.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

66

15

21

1,183

115

115

11.00%

11.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

43

62

744

170

152

30.00%

26.00%

 

 

United States

50

2

-14

1,172

137

52

13.00%

5.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/07/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

16

1

10

42

-10

13

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

9

1

6

22

-8

12

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

22

10

17

58

11

23

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

20

2

14

51

-11

19

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

2

1

1

4

2

4

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

1

0

1

3

1

2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

3

-16

-4

15

-53

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

1

-8

-5

18

-37

4

NA

NA

 

 

United States

8

0

4

23

-9

9

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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