Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-12-2023

Sep 12, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.675

$2.608

2.57%

$0.067

37,389

 

 

WTI

$88.62

$87.29

1.52%

$1.33

104,436

 

 

Brent

$91.77

$90.64

1.25%

$1.13

9,261

 

 

ULSD

$3.339

$3.362

-0.69%

-$0.023

11,017

 

 

RBOB

$2.727

$2.719

0.29%

$0.008

8,637

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.85

$3.98

-3.27%

-$0.13

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$31.96

$33.03

-3.25%

-$1.07

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$33.60

$32.15

4.49%

$1.44

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/08/23

632

1

-127

09/09/22

 

 

Canada

09/08/23

182

-5

-23

09/09/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/5/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

106,876

105,640

105,259

381

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

90,506

89,316

89,275

41

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

416,932

393,688

405,964

-12,276

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

138,421

111,563

105,302

6,261

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

131,982

125,559

126,152

-593

 

 

NYM Ethanol

29,781

29,344

29,509

-165

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

163,734

162,662

163,491

-829

 

 

RBOB

374,033

348,713

360,512

-11,799

 

 

HSC Basis

648,515

639,183

639,693

-510

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/07/18

 

 

 

9/1/23

8/25/23

Net Change

% Change

9/2/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

766

751

15

2.00%

635

20.63%

712

7.55%

 

 

Midwest

877

853

24

2.81%

776

13.02%

834

5.18%

 

 

Mountain

218

213

5

2.35%

159

37.11%

183

19.13%

 

 

Pacific

252

248

4

1.61%

238

5.88%

263

-4.11%

 

 

South

1,035

1,050

-15

-1.43%

887

16.69%

967

6.99%

 

 

    Salt

241

249

-8

-3.21%

182

32.42%

221

8.95%

 

 

    Non_Salt

795

801

-6

-0.75%

705

12.77%

746

6.54%

 

 

Total

3,148

3,115

33

1.06%

2,694

16.85%

2,959

6.37%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$39.31

$37.73

4.19%

$1.58

$37.84

3.89%

$66.42

-40.81%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$49.69

$51.11

-2.79%

-$1.42

$51.20

-2.96%

$67.09

-25.94%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$53.54

$51.90

3.17%

$1.65

$75.60

-29.18%

$77.64

-31.04%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$43.73

$41.98

4.16%

$1.75

$43.22

1.17%

$68.22

-35.90%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$32.87

$31.29

5.04%

$1.58

$33.24

-1.11%

$57.36

-42.69%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$72.00

$72.01

-0.01%

-$0.01

$96.11

-25.08%

$78.29

-8.03%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$32.55

$30.98

5.06%

$1.57

$32.62

-0.21%

$53.16

-38.76%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.608

$2.605

0.12%

$0.00

$2.88

-9.51%

$5.55

-52.98%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.295

-$0.293

0.82%

$0.00

-$0.32

-8.01%

-$0.29

2.68%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.320

-$0.311

-3.06%

-$0.01

-$0.26

21.64%

-$0.27

20.27%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.954

-$0.962

-0.88%

$0.01

-$0.62

54.60%

-$2.21

-56.94%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.014

-$1.000

-1.37%

-$0.01

-$0.86

17.94%

-$1.19

-14.80%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.716

-$0.722

-0.89%

$0.01

-$0.58

22.44%

-$2.01

-64.35%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$0.859

$0.960

-10.54%

-$0.10

$2.02

-57.55%

-$0.39

-318.73%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.770

$0.765

0.64%

$0.00

$0.73

4.95%

$0.94

-18.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.770

$0.765

0.64%

$0.00

$0.71

7.74%

$0.92

-16.40%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.281

$0.284

-0.93%

$0.00

$0.27

5.47%

$0.37

-24.79%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.694

$1.655

2.36%

$0.04

$1.59

6.29%

$1.56

8.86%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.918

$0.896

2.39%

$0.02

$0.89

2.84%

$0.95

-3.35%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.770

$0.764

0.79%

$0.01

$0.74

4.25%

$0.94

-18.45%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.747

$1.707

2.34%

$0.04

$1.65

6.17%

$1.60

9.45%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$86.66

$86.81

-0.17%

-$0.15

$82.02

5.66%

$79.54

8.95%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$90.64

$90.65

-0.01%

-$0.01

$86.14

5.22%

$84.21

7.64%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$16.41

-$18.07

-10.15%

$1.66

-$17.05

-3.77%

-$18.55

-11.57%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$87.75

$87.71

0.04%

$0.04

$83.15

5.52%

$80.87

8.50%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$85.55

$86.17

-0.72%

-$0.62

$81.40

5.10%

$77.17

10.85%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$86.82

$87.14

-0.37%

-$0.32

$82.08

5.77%

$79.08

9.78%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$88.64

$88.65

-0.01%

-$0.01

$84.14

5.35%

$81.29

9.04%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.36

$3.29

1.98%

$0.07

$3.09

8.50%

$2.96

13.53%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.72

$2.66

2.48%

$0.07

$2.69

1.15%

$2.29

18.97%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.62

$2.56

2.58%

$0.07

$2.59

1.20%

$2.19

19.84%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.13

$2.97

5.52%

$0.16

$3.05

2.72%

$2.70

16.07%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.20

$2.16

2.04%

$0.04

$2.01

9.93%

$2.06

7.09%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$913.46

$897.46

1.78%

$16.00

$847.99

7.72%

$830.81

9.95%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$120.19

$120.55

-0.30%

-$0.36

$114.75

4.74%

$105.97

13.42%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Oct-23

64.49%

63.94%

0.86%

0.55%

62.00%

4.02%

53.47%

20.61%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Oct-23

80.03%

79.40%

0.79%

0.63%

75.54%

5.94%

63.43%

26.17%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Oct-23

95.14%

97.74%

-2.66%

-2.60%

93.55%

1.70%

99.09%

-3.99%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Oct-23

67.03%

68.07%

-1.53%

-1.04%

70.83%

-5.36%

54.95%

21.98%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Oct-23

56.26%

56.05%

0.37%

0.21%

45.38%

23.98%

48.64%

15.67%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Oct-23

139.56%

152.53%

-8.50%

-12.97%

125.49%

11.21%

53.67%

160.03%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Oct-23

252.93%

253.03%

-0.04%

-0.10%

216.87%

16.63%

72.21%

250.27%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/11/23

9/8/23

% Change

Change

8/11/23

% Change

9/12/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Oct-23

EUR 36.85

EUR 35.05

5.15%

EUR 1.80

EUR 39.84

-7.48%

EUR 166.21

-77.83%

 

 

NBP

Oct-23

GBP 92.91

GBP 87.58

6.09%

GBP 5.33

GBP 100.53

-7.58%

GBP 445.70

-79.15%

 

 

German Base

Oct-23

EUR 93.03

EUR 93.87

-0.90%

-EUR 0.84

EUR 105.10

-11.48%

EUR 511.63

-81.82%

 

 

UK Base

Oct-23

GBP 90.32

GBP 85.94

5.09%

GBP 4.37

GBP 95.32

-5.24%

GBP 336.23

-73.14%

 

 

French Base

Oct-23

EUR 90.67

EUR 86.48

4.85%

EUR 4.19

EUR 96.06

-5.61%

EUR 543.47

-83.32%

 

 

Italian Base

Oct-23

EUR 117.62

EUR 112.34

4.70%

EUR 5.29

EUR 126.33

-6.89%

EUR 353.72

-66.75%

 

 

JKM LNG

Oct-23

$13.88

$13.46

3.11%

$0.42

$13.77

0.77%

$44.61

-68.88%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/09/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

55

55

525

115

-106

28.00%

-17.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

63

40

28

672

49

-145

8.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

48

26

17

629

-42

-149

-6.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W N Central

54

23

11

951

81

-63

9.00%

-6.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

93

21

9

1,704

113

-114

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

82

18

10

1,426

66

-146

5.00%

-9.00%

 

 

W S Central

141

43

46

2,434

377

-28

18.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

51

2

-29

1,078

-3

-147

0.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

27

-8

-70

601

18

-234

3.00%

-28.00%

 

 

United States

69

23

5

1,127

80

-133

8.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/09/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-17

-10

29

-29

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-9

-1

9

-24

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-6

3

41

-11

18

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

11

-9

4

37

-31

21

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

-1

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

-1

0

1

-1

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-1

0

0

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

7

-13

4

16

-58

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

7

-3

5

15

-43

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

4

-5

1

16

-19

6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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