Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-20-2023

Sep 20, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:22 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.744

$2.848

-3.65%

-$0.104

46,818

 

 

WTI

$90.25

$91.20

-1.04%

-$0.95

4,321

 

 

Brent

$93.31

$94.34

-1.09%

-$1.03

10,211

 

 

ULSD

$3.302

$3.374

-2.13%

-$0.072

6,095

 

 

RBOB

$2.617

$2.658

-1.54%

-$0.041

3,569

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.85

$3.86

-0.26%

-$0.01

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$27.66

$28.55

-3.13%

-$0.89

Oct-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.60

$35.11

4.25%

$1.49

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/15/23

641

9

-122

09/16/22

 

 

Canada

09/15/23

190

8

-21

09/16/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/12/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

96,724

96,300

96,117

183

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

84,512

83,988

83,856

132

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

424,530

401,090

413,562

-12,472

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

285,577

231,082

212,886

18,196

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,150

131,864

132,582

-718

 

 

NYM Ethanol

32,724

32,291

32,321

-30

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

149,732

148,982

149,557

-575

 

 

RBOB

370,982

342,072

355,300

-13,228

 

 

HSC Basis

609,984

603,328

602,303

1,025

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/14/18

 

 

 

9/8/23

9/1/23

Net Change

% Change

9/9/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

775

766

9

1.17%

661

17.25%

738

5.01%

 

 

Midwest

904

877

27

3.08%

809

11.74%

867

4.24%

 

 

Mountain

225

218

7

3.21%

163

38.04%

187

20.32%

 

 

Pacific

260

252

8

3.17%

235

10.64%

264

-1.44%

 

 

South

1,041

1,035

6

0.58%

904

15.15%

987

5.43%

 

 

    Salt

241

241

0

0.00%

187

28.88%

227

5.98%

 

 

    Non_Salt

801

795

6

0.75%

717

11.72%

760

5.37%

 

 

Total

3,205

3,148

57

1.81%

2,771

15.66%

3,043

5.32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$42.48

$41.20

3.09%

$1.27

$38.00

11.79%

$68.96

-38.40%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$61.32

$56.26

8.99%

$5.06

$52.95

15.81%

$67.55

-9.22%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$47.25

$49.59

-4.70%

-$2.33

$67.95

-30.45%

$77.20

-38.79%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$44.64

$43.08

3.60%

$1.55

$43.00

3.80%

$70.77

-36.93%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$36.03

$33.54

7.40%

$2.48

$32.90

9.49%

$64.71

-44.33%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$75.91

$69.99

8.47%

$5.93

$82.08

-7.51%

$76.12

-0.27%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$32.74

$32.05

2.13%

$0.68

$32.98

-0.73%

$55.45

-40.97%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.848

$2.728

4.40%

$0.12

$2.74

3.83%

$5.36

-46.92%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.376

-$0.389

-3.52%

$0.01

-$0.35

6.67%

-$0.34

10.14%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.373

-$0.387

3.67%

$0.01

-$0.29

30.03%

-$0.31

21.01%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$0.887

-$0.895

-0.86%

$0.01

-$0.74

19.47%

-$2.44

-63.57%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.135

-$1.081

-5.04%

-$0.05

-$1.06

7.60%

-$1.08

4.87%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.877

-$0.807

8.62%

-$0.07

-$0.68

29.79%

-$2.17

-59.54%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$0.720

$0.947

-23.90%

-$0.23

$1.40

-48.52%

-$0.40

-280.82%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.740

$0.765

-3.28%

-$0.03

$0.67

9.79%

$0.90

-17.72%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.740

$0.764

-3.12%

-$0.02

$0.68

9.36%

$0.90

-18.19%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.297

$0.298

-0.23%

$0.00

$0.27

12.20%

$0.38

-21.50%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.733

$1.757

-1.37%

-$0.02

$1.59

8.72%

$1.62

6.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.913

$0.929

-1.68%

-$0.02

$0.83

10.50%

$0.90

1.04%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.757

$0.771

-1.89%

-$0.01

$0.69

10.45%

$0.91

-17.24%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.816

$1.839

-1.22%

-$0.02

$1.64

11.02%

$1.67

8.85%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$90.48

$90.58

-0.11%

-$0.10

$79.76

13.44%

$74.72

21.09%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$94.34

$94.43

-0.10%

-$0.09

$84.09

12.19%

$79.75

18.29%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$17.45

-$17.50

-0.28%

$0.05

-$16.68

4.63%

-$17.60

-0.83%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$91.28

$91.54

-0.29%

-$0.26

$81.23

12.37%

$76.16

19.86%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$88.68

$89.28

-0.67%

-$0.60

$79.48

11.58%

$72.53

22.27%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$90.57

$90.63

-0.07%

-$0.06

$80.45

12.58%

$74.54

21.51%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$92.34

$92.43

-0.10%

-$0.09

$82.09

12.49%

$76.78

20.27%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.39

$3.30

2.73%

$0.09

$3.10

9.60%

$2.82

20.33%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.61

$2.65

-1.51%

-$0.04

$2.54

2.79%

$2.16

20.80%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.51

$2.55

-1.57%

-$0.04

$2.44

2.91%

$2.06

21.81%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.13

$3.07

1.89%

$0.06

$2.94

6.35%

$2.65

18.19%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.19

$2.23

-1.80%

-$0.04

$2.00

9.62%

$2.11

3.70%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$915.75

$896.60

2.14%

$19.15

$841.78

8.79%

$802.88

14.06%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$119.06

$121.25

-1.81%

-$2.19

$113.17

5.21%

$105.74

12.60%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

58.77%

59.33%

-0.94%

-0.56%

69.98%

-16.02%

60.03%

-2.10%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

68.99%

70.47%

-2.10%

-1.48%

87.87%

-21.49%

72.84%

-5.29%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

81.60%

87.24%

-6.46%

-5.64%

92.40%

-11.69%

83.83%

-2.66%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

66.71%

64.48%

3.46%

2.23%

74.30%

-10.22%

61.96%

7.67%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

56.07%

57.00%

-1.63%

-0.93%

55.14%

1.69%

47.63%

17.72%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

166.05%

131.71%

26.07%

34.34%

104.89%

58.31%

56.83%

192.19%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

178.81%

184.60%

-3.14%

-5.79%

129.09%

38.52%

70.96%

151.99%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/23

9/18/23

% Change

Change

8/21/23

% Change

9/20/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 44.40

EUR 42.90

3.49%

EUR 1.50

EUR 53.48

-16.98%

EUR 179.12

-75.21%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 111.28

GBP 106.85

4.15%

GBP 4.43

GBP 133.73

-16.79%

GBP 453.06

-75.44%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 110.53

EUR 110.67

-0.12%

-EUR 0.14

EUR 134.89

-18.05%

EUR 545.00

-79.72%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 100.47

GBP 102.06

-1.55%

-GBP 1.59

GBP 128.97

-22.10%

GBP 363.65

-72.37%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 116.80

EUR 118.29

-1.26%

-EUR 1.49

EUR 167.73

-30.36%

EUR 597.09

-80.44%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 128.73

EUR 129.86

-0.87%

-EUR 1.13

EUR 160.68

-19.89%

EUR 375.99

-65.76%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.79

$12.78

23.52%

$3.01

$13.74

14.94%

$40.69

-61.20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

23

18

5

547

132

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

19

4

-1

692

54

-146

8.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

-14

-12

630

-56

-161

-8.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

10

-12

-12

962

70

-75

8.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

74

10

8

1,777

122

-106

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

56

3

11

1,482

70

-136

5.00%

-8.00%

 

 

W S Central

87

1

9

2,521

379

-19

18.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

41

-1

6

1,119

-4

-141

0.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

34

2

3

635

19

-231

3.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

40

1

2

1,167

81

-132

7.00%

-10.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/16/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

11

-17

-4

39

-47

-2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

9

-9

-1

19

-32

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

33

11

16

74

1

34

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

30

2

11

68

-28

32

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-1

0

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

3

-1

-2

3

-3

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

19

-9

1

36

-66

11

-65.00%

50.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-10

-2

18

-53

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

11

-3

3

27

-23

9

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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