Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-20-2024

Sep 20, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 7:44 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.374

$2.348

1.11%

$0.026

13,591

 

 

WTI

$71.65

$71.95

-0.42%

-$0.30

956

 

 

Brent

$74.45

$74.88

-0.57%

-$0.43

6,188

 

 

ULSD

$2.171

$2.172

-0.05%

-$0.001

1,858

 

 

RBOB

$2.050

$2.060

-0.51%

-$0.010

2,607

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.69

$3.72

-0.81%

-$0.03

Nov-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$16.24

$16.19

0.34%

$0.06

Oct-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$38.90

$38.27

1.64%

$0.63

Oct-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/13/24

590

8

-51

09/16/23

 

 

Canada

09/13/24

218

-2

28

09/16/23

 

 

International

August

931

-3

-21

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/10/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,185

85,772

85,630

142

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

78,534

78,462

77,643

819

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

334,436

320,445

323,461

-3,016

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

266,202

215,076

219,801

-4,725

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,510

129,673

129,462

211

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,963

35,357

35,391

-34

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

159,266

158,558

158,739

-181

 

 

RBOB

354,613

336,437

332,846

3,591

 

 

HSC Basis

833,948

826,231

825,652

579

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/13/19

 

 

 

9/13/24

9/6/24

Net Change

% Change

9/15/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

802

780

22

2.82%

793

1.13%

770

4.21%

 

 

Midwest

973

950

23

2.42%

931

4.51%

917

6.08%

 

 

Mountain

275

273

2

0.73%

228

20.61%

201

36.82%

 

 

Pacific

283

285

-2

-0.70%

263

7.60%

266

6.31%

 

 

South

1,111

1,098

13

1.18%

1,053

5.51%

1,047

6.11%

 

 

    Salt

271

266

5

1.88%

242

11.98%

244

11.25%

 

 

    Non_Salt

840

832

8

0.96%

811

3.58%

803

4.56%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,387

58

1.71%

3,269

5.38%

3,202

7.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-24

$43.99

$43.30

1.61%

$0.70

$43.14

1.99%

$42.48

3.58%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-24

$34.79

$34.16

1.84%

$0.63

$39.63

-12.23%

$41.74

-16.66%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-24

$32.36

$30.00

7.87%

$2.36

$29.20

10.81%

$57.62

-43.84%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-24

$40.77

$40.42

0.85%

$0.35

$40.99

-0.55%

$46.20

-11.76%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-24

$40.22

$40.09

0.32%

$0.13

$38.92

3.33%

$43.95

-8.50%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-24

$52.00

$48.92

6.30%

$3.08

$54.46

-4.51%

$67.82

-23.32%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-24

$37.44

$37.51

-0.19%

-$0.07

$34.92

7.22%

$37.40

0.12%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-24

$2.348

$2.284

2.80%

$0.06

$2.31

1.47%

$3.36

-30.14%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-24

-$0.391

-$0.321

21.76%

-$0.07

-$0.49

-19.89%

-$0.37

5.97%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-24

-$0.365

-$0.321

-12.09%

-$0.04

-$0.46

-19.82%

-$0.30

19.76%

 

 

Waha

Oct-24

-$1.380

-$1.217

-13.40%

-$0.16

-$2.03

-32.14%

-$0.80

71.50%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-24

-$0.447

-$0.408

-9.61%

-$0.04

-$0.66

-32.51%

-$0.60

-25.50%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-24

-$1.868

-$1.796

4.03%

-$0.07

-$1.56

20.05%

-$1.21

54.21%

 

 

Socal

Oct-24

-$0.463

-$0.472

-1.93%

$0.01

-$0.44

5.83%

$0.47

-198.59%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-24

$0.730

$0.719

1.58%

$0.01

$0.79

-7.58%

$0.76

-4.30%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-24

$0.725

$0.731

-0.87%

-$0.01

$0.80

-9.10%

$0.76

-4.97%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-24

$0.195

$0.194

0.68%

$0.00

$0.17

12.97%

$0.27

-27.20%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.492

$1.470

1.53%

$0.02

$1.49

0.29%

$1.62

-7.79%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-24

$0.977

$0.970

0.75%

$0.01

$0.97

0.96%

$0.88

10.77%

 

 

Far East Propane

Oct-24

$6.382

$6.383

-0.02%

$0.00

$6.36

0.30%

$6.01

6.19%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Oct-24

$6.090

$6.100

-0.16%

-$0.01

$6.00

1.49%

$5.28

15.31%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-24

$71.16

$69.88

1.80%

$1.28

$71.30

-0.20%

$79.34

-10.31%

 

 

Brent

Nov-24

$74.88

$73.65

1.64%

$1.23

$75.50

-0.82%

$83.98

-10.84%

 

 

WCS

Nov-24

-$13.24

-$13.72

-3.59%

$0.48

-$15.61

-15.17%

-$15.79

-16.11%

 

 

LLS

Nov-24

$72.22

$70.22

2.78%

$2.00

$72.67

-0.61%

$81.20

-11.05%

 

 

Mars

Nov-24

$69.01

$67.15

2.70%

$1.86

$70.10

-1.55%

$77.11

-10.50%

 

 

Sour

Nov-24

$71.07

$69.27

2.52%

$1.79

$71.26

-0.27%

$79.32

-10.40%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-24

$72.88

$71.65

1.69%

$1.23

$73.50

-0.84%

$81.98

-11.10%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-24

$2.17

$2.14

1.54%

$0.03

$2.26

-4.07%

$2.77

-21.78%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-24

$2.05

$2.01

2.24%

$0.05

$2.05

0.05%

$2.34

-12.34%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.95

$1.91

2.36%

$0.04

$1.95

0.05%

$2.24

-12.89%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-24

$2.02

$1.98

2.38%

$0.05

$2.13

-4.80%

$2.51

-19.24%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-24

$1.59

$1.65

-3.99%

-$0.07

$1.76

-9.98%

$1.74

-8.53%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-24

$625.18

$614.97

1.66%

$10.21

$649.01

-3.67%

$795.32

-21.39%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-24

$86.05

$83.89

2.58%

$2.16

$90.55

-4.97%

$104.71

-17.82%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-24

56.90%

57.43%

-0.92%

-0.53%

61.19%

-7.01%

48.34%

17.71%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-24

83.38%

93.01%

-10.35%

-9.63%

100.93%

-17.39%

61.99%

34.51%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-24

135.93%

126.20%

7.71%

9.73%

115.56%

17.63%

51.86%

162.11%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-24

60.12%

63.46%

-5.26%

-3.34%

71.36%

-15.75%

49.91%

20.46%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-24

44.21%

43.88%

0.75%

0.33%

42.40%

4.27%

39.90%

10.80%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-24

174.19%

249.78%

-30.26%

-75.59%

135.60%

28.46%

37.55%

363.89%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-24

131.43%

148.47%

-11.48%

-17.04%

144.36%

-8.96%

68.44%

92.04%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-24

EUR 34.46

EUR 37.39

-7.83%

-EUR 2.93

EUR 40.16

-14.18%

EUR 52.68

-34.58%

 

 

NBP

Nov-24

GBP 85.79

GBP 93.48

-8.23%

-GBP 7.69

GBP 102.67

-16.44%

GBP 135.39

-36.64%

 

 

German Base

Nov-24

EUR 84.25

EUR 89.08

-5.42%

-EUR 4.83

EUR 102.49

-17.79%

EUR 141.87

-40.61%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-24

GBP 74.92

GBP 79.56

-5.83%

-GBP 4.64

GBP 91.27

-17.91%

GBP 123.40

-39.28%

 

 

French Base

Nov-24

EUR 77.91

EUR 81.04

-3.87%

-EUR 3.13

EUR 101.10

-22.94%

EUR 153.60

-49.28%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-24

EUR 110.07

EUR 111.12

-0.94%

-EUR 1.05

EUR 124.00

-11.23%

EUR 157.79

-30.24%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-24

$13.07

$13.58

-3.77%

-$0.51

$13.82

-5.48%

$16.84

-22.41%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/19/24

9/18/24

% Change

Change

8/21/24

% Change

9/20/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Nov-24

$34.46

$37.39

-7.83%

-$2.93

$40.16

-14.18%

$52.68

-34.58%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Nov-24

$85.79

$93.48

-8.23%

-$7.69

$102.67

-16.44%

$135.39

-36.64%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Nov-24

$84.25

$89.08

-5.42%

-$4.83

$102.49

-17.79%

$141.87

-40.61%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Nov-24

$74.92

$79.56

-5.83%

-$4.64

$91.27

-17.91%

$123.40

-39.28%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Nov-24

$77.91

$81.04

-3.87%

-$3.13

$101.10

-22.94%

$153.60

-49.28%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$110.07

$111.12

-0.94%

-$1.05

$124.00

-11.23%

$157.79

-30.24%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$13.07

$13.58

-3.77%

-$0.51

$13.82

-5.48%

$16.84

-22.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/14/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

4

-2

-38

561

147

13

36.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

7

-10

-27

749

115

58

18.00%

8.00%

 

 

E N Central

19

2

16

721

39

91

6.00%

14.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

4

16

895

8

-65

1.00%

-7.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

56

-11

-26

1,811

172

42

10.00%

2.00%

 

 

E S Central

42

-14

-17

1,596

197

120

14.00%

8.00%

 

 

W S Central

70

-19

-31

2,331

211

-178

10.00%

-7.00%

 

 

Mountain

54

10

5

1,237

125

123

11.00%

11.00%

 

 

Pacific

42

9

-1

786

179

154

29.00%

24.00%

 

 

United States

37

-4

-11

1,209

133

46

12.00%

4.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/14/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

24

-1

21

66

-11

34

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

11

-4

9

33

-12

21

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

17

-2

-12

75

9

11

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

10

-15

-17

61

-26

2

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

5

3

5

9

6

9

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

6

4

5

9

5

7

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

1

0

1

1

-1

1

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

9

-16

-4

25

-68

-4

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

6

-6

2

25

-41

7

NA

NA

 

 

United States

9

-4

1

32

-13

9

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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