Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-23-2024

Sep 23, 2024

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 9:52 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.588

$2.434

6.33%

$0.154

51,616

 

 

WTI

$71.75

$71.92

-0.24%

-$0.17

139,165

 

 

Brent

$75.12

$74.49

0.85%

$0.63

11,282

 

 

ULSD

$2.184

$2.161

1.05%

$0.023

7,634

 

 

RBOB

$2.040

$2.036

0.16%

$0.003

5,850

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.42

$3.49

-2.01%

-$0.07

Nov-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$15.41

$15.63

-1.41%

-$0.22

Nov-24

 

 

PJM West Spark

$40.12

$38.79

3.45%

$1.34

Oct-24

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/20/24

588

-2

-42

09/23/23

 

 

Canada

09/20/24

211

-7

21

09/23/23

 

 

International

August

931

-3

-21

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/17/2024

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

86,819

86,511

86,208

303

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

79,182

79,106

78,292

814

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

335,555

321,500

324,576

-3,076

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

135,441

112,362

111,751

611

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

137,205

126,567

129,073

-2,506

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,032

34,391

34,512

-121

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,459

160,771

161,104

-333

 

 

RBOB

350,353

331,674

327,979

3,695

 

 

HSC Basis

856,429

847,862

848,102

-240

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Brent

$101.00

$82.00

$83.00

$84.00

 

 

Gasoline

$4.00

$3.50

$3.30

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

12.00

12.90

13.30

13.70

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$6.40

$2.50

$2.20

$3.10

 

 

LNG Exports

11.00

12.00

12.00

14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2022

2023

2024projected

2025projected

 

 

Natural gas

39.00%

42.00%

42.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

20.00%

17.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

21.00%

21.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/13/19

 

 

 

9/13/24

9/6/24

Net Change

% Change

9/15/23

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

802

780

22

2.82%

793

1.13%

770

4.21%

 

 

Midwest

973

950

23

2.42%

931

4.51%

917

6.08%

 

 

Mountain

275

273

2

0.73%

228

20.61%

201

36.82%

 

 

Pacific

283

285

-2

-0.70%

263

7.60%

266

6.31%

 

 

South

1,111

1,098

13

1.18%

1,053

5.51%

1,047

6.11%

 

 

    Salt

271

266

5

1.88%

242

11.98%

244

11.25%

 

 

    Non_Salt

840

832

8

0.96%

811

3.58%

803

4.56%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,387

58

1.71%

3,269

5.38%

3,202

7.60%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-24

$45.62

$43.99

3.69%

$1.63

$42.51

7.31%

$42.54

7.23%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-24

$34.49

$34.79

-0.85%

-$0.30

$37.03

-6.86%

$41.73

-17.35%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-24

$31.02

$32.36

-4.13%

-$1.34

$27.49

12.86%

$57.96

-46.47%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-24

$41.76

$40.77

2.43%

$0.99

$40.36

3.48%

$46.41

-10.03%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-24

$42.81

$40.22

6.45%

$2.59

$39.02

9.71%

$44.36

-3.50%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-24

$58.52

$52.00

12.54%

$6.52

$50.00

17.05%

$70.78

-17.32%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-24

$39.29

$37.44

4.92%

$1.84

$34.82

12.82%

$38.28

2.63%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-24

$2.456

$2.348

4.60%

$0.11

$2.19

11.94%

$3.35

-26.58%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-24

-$0.426

-$0.391

9.01%

-$0.04

-$0.50

-14.39%

-$0.37

14.12%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-24

-$0.390

-$0.365

-6.51%

-$0.03

-$0.48

-18.69%

-$0.32

23.40%

 

 

Waha

Oct-24

-$1.379

-$1.380

-0.09%

$0.00

-$2.22

-37.82%

-$0.82

68.06%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-24

-$0.487

-$0.447

-8.83%

-$0.04

-$0.65

-25.69%

-$0.60

-18.75%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-24

-$1.959

-$1.868

4.83%

-$0.09

-$1.47

32.81%

-$1.26

55.04%

 

 

Socal

Oct-24

-$0.446

-$0.463

-3.57%

$0.02

-$0.46

-2.47%

$0.47

-195.28%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-24

$0.720

$0.730

-1.38%

-$0.01

$0.79

-8.41%

$0.74

-2.73%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-24

$0.727

$0.725

0.36%

$0.00

$0.79

-7.39%

$0.75

-3.32%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-24

$0.196

$0.195

0.64%

$0.00

$0.17

14.78%

$0.27

-26.73%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.473

$1.492

-1.34%

-$0.02

$1.49

-1.22%

$1.61

-8.53%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-24

$0.995

$0.977

1.90%

$0.02

$0.98

1.45%

$0.86

15.71%

 

 

Far East Propane

Oct-24

$6.359

$6.382

-0.35%

-$0.02

$6.40

-0.57%

$5.91

7.52%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Oct-24

$6.110

$6.090

0.33%

$0.02

$5.96

2.51%

$5.29

15.54%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-24

$71.00

$71.16

-0.23%

-$0.16

$72.28

-1.77%

$79.42

-10.60%

 

 

Brent

Nov-24

$74.49

$74.88

-0.52%

-$0.39

$76.55

-2.69%

$84.11

-11.44%

 

 

WCS

Nov-24

-$13.50

-$13.24

1.90%

-$0.26

-$14.89

-9.34%

-$16.70

-19.18%

 

 

LLS

Nov-24

$71.78

$72.22

-0.62%

-$0.45

$74.01

-3.01%

$81.67

-12.11%

 

 

Mars

Nov-24

$68.94

$69.01

-0.11%

-$0.07

$70.82

-2.66%

$78.19

-11.84%

 

 

Sour

Nov-24

$70.99

$71.07

-0.11%

-$0.08

$72.38

-1.93%

$79.11

-10.26%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-24

$72.49

$72.88

-0.54%

-$0.39

$74.55

-2.76%

$82.11

-11.72%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-24

$2.17

$2.17

0.00%

$0.00

$2.28

-4.74%

$2.79

-22.20%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-24

$2.04

$2.05

-0.54%

-$0.01

$2.08

-1.59%

$2.33

-12.44%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-24

$1.94

$1.95

-0.56%

-$0.01

$1.98

-1.67%

$2.23

-12.99%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-24

$2.06

$2.02

1.88%

$0.04

$2.14

-3.87%

$2.55

-19.08%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-24

$1.56

$1.59

-1.64%

-$0.03

$1.77

-11.91%

$1.73

-9.77%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-24

$622.14

$625.18

-0.49%

-$3.04

$652.66

-4.68%

$778.24

-20.06%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-24

$85.05

$86.05

-1.16%

-$1.00

$88.72

-4.14%

$108.77

-21.81%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-24

57.42%

56.90%

0.91%

0.52%

69.36%

-17.21%

53.57%

7.19%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-24

78.65%

83.38%

-5.67%

-4.73%

108.29%

-27.37%

58.99%

33.33%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-24

123.23%

135.93%

-9.34%

-12.70%

125.61%

-1.89%

57.02%

116.12%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-24

61.66%

60.12%

2.56%

1.54%

81.11%

-23.98%

55.43%

11.24%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-24

45.59%

44.21%

3.12%

1.38%

42.79%

6.54%

40.40%

12.85%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-24

179.54%

174.19%

3.07%

5.35%

137.31%

30.76%

37.79%

375.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-24

132.66%

131.43%

0.94%

1.23%

142.62%

-6.98%

69.72%

90.28%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-24

EUR 35.89

EUR 34.46

4.14%

EUR 1.43

EUR 39.80

-9.84%

EUR 52.36

-31.46%

 

 

NBP

Nov-24

GBP 89.74

GBP 85.79

4.61%

GBP 3.95

GBP 101.32

-11.43%

GBP 136.45

-34.23%

 

 

German Base

Nov-24

EUR 85.92

EUR 84.25

1.99%

EUR 1.67

EUR 100.21

-14.25%

EUR 142.47

-39.69%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-24

GBP 77.65

GBP 74.92

3.64%

GBP 2.73

GBP 91.30

-14.95%

GBP 121.75

-36.22%

 

 

French Base

Nov-24

EUR 78.23

EUR 77.91

0.41%

EUR 0.32

EUR 97.91

-20.10%

EUR 157.60

-50.36%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-24

EUR 110.35

EUR 110.07

0.25%

EUR 0.28

EUR 120.08

-8.10%

EUR 155.64

-29.10%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-24

$14.13

$13.07

8.15%

$1.06

$13.78

2.56%

$16.95

-16.63%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/20/24

9/19/24

% Change

Change

8/22/24

% Change

9/21/23

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Nov-24

$35.89

$34.46

4.14%

$1.43

$39.80

-9.84%

$52.36

-31.46%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Nov-24

$89.74

$85.79

4.61%

$3.95

$101.32

-11.43%

$136.45

-34.23%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Nov-24

$85.92

$84.25

1.99%

$1.67

$100.21

-14.25%

$142.47

-39.69%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Nov-24

$77.65

$74.92

3.64%

$2.73

$91.30

-14.95%

$121.75

-36.22%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Nov-24

$78.23

$77.91

0.41%

$0.32

$97.91

-20.10%

$157.60

-50.36%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$110.35

$110.07

0.25%

$0.28

$120.08

-8.10%

$155.64

-29.10%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Nov-24

$14.13

$13.07

8.15%

$1.06

$13.78

2.56%

$16.95

-16.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/21/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

6

4

5

566

150

19

36.00%

3.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

13

3

13

762

118

71

18.00%

10.00%

 

 

E N Central

42

31

39

763

70

127

10.00%

20.00%

 

 

W N Central

63

47

44

959

56

-24

6.00%

-2.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

67

10

15

1,878

182

58

11.00%

3.00%

 

 

E S Central

68

23

26

1,663

219

146

15.00%

10.00%

 

 

W S Central

111

35

21

2,442

245

-161

11.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Mountain

26

-10

-6

1,264

116

119

10.00%

10.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-28

-9

787

151

148

24.00%

23.00%

 

 

United States

44

11

16

1,253

144

62

13.00%

5.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/21/2024

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

13

-26

-14

79

-37

21

-32.00%

36.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

4

-23

-19

37

-34

2

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

3

-27

-28

78

-18

-17

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

1

-34

-19

63

-59

-17

-48.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

1

-5

-4

10

1

5

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

1

-7

-5

9

-3

2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

0

-2

0

1

-3

1

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

22

-11

0

47

-79

-4

-63.00%

-8.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

9

13

49

-33

20

NA

NA

 

 

United States

7

-12

-8

39

-25

1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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