Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-26-2023

Sep 26, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:24 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.576

$2.639

-2.39%

-$0.063

7,506

 

 

WTI

$89.45

$89.68

-0.26%

-$0.23

101,836

 

 

Brent

$92.93

$93.29

-0.39%

-$0.36

5,513

 

 

ULSD

$3.213

$3.262

-1.50%

-$0.049

3,134

 

 

RBOB

$2.505

$2.544

-1.53%

-$0.039

3,353

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.44

$3.61

-4.71%

-$0.17

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.61

$25.22

-6.38%

-$1.61

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$36.49

$34.47

5.87%

$2.02

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/22/23

630

-11

-134

09/23/22

 

 

Canada

09/22/23

190

0

-25

09/23/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/19/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,306

97,845

97,894

-49

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,475

84,802

84,874

-72

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,114

404,674

416,711

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

294,409

242,749

222,686

20,063

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

136,942

127,542

128,244

-702

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,498

37,076

37,018

58

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,230

150,608

150,984

-376

 

 

RBOB

386,928

360,143

372,133

-11,990

 

 

HSC Basis

617,352

612,328

609,283

3,045

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/21/18

 

 

 

9/15/23

9/8/23

Net Change

% Change

9/16/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

793

775

18

2.32%

690

14.93%

763

3.93%

 

 

Midwest

931

904

27

2.99%

844

10.31%

898

3.65%

 

 

Mountain

228

225

3

1.33%

168

35.71%

191

19.25%

 

 

Pacific

263

260

3

1.15%

237

10.97%

267

-1.42%

 

 

South

1,053

1,041

12

1.15%

935

12.62%

1,003

5.03%

 

 

    Salt

242

241

1

0.41%

199

21.61%

231

4.67%

 

 

    Non_Salt

811

801

10

1.25%

736

10.19%

771

5.16%

 

 

Total

3,269

3,205

64

2.00%

2,874

13.74%

3,122

4.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$42.00

$40.12

4.71%

$1.89

$38.87

8.07%

$66.04

-36.40%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$64.79

$62.66

3.39%

$2.13

$50.51

28.27%

$61.10

6.04%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$47.18

$48.11

-1.94%

-$0.93

$65.63

-28.12%

$73.19

-35.54%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$44.49

$41.78

6.49%

$2.71

$43.88

1.40%

$67.83

-34.42%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$30.35

$31.98

-5.09%

-$1.63

$32.14

-5.56%

$56.65

-46.42%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$70.40

$72.36

-2.70%

-$1.96

$79.95

-11.95%

$80.31

-12.34%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$29.13

$30.49

-4.47%

-$1.36

$32.95

-11.61%

$49.45

-41.09%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Oct-23

$2.639

$2.637

0.08%

$0.00

$2.66

-0.68%

$5.05

-47.78%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Oct-23

-$0.363

-$0.366

-0.96%

$0.00

-$0.34

5.16%

-$0.35

2.23%

 

 

Chicago

Oct-23

-$0.435

-$0.414

-4.85%

-$0.02

-$0.29

51.46%

-$0.36

21.25%

 

 

Waha

Oct-23

-$1.066

-$1.061

-0.46%

$0.00

-$0.90

18.95%

-$2.14

-50.13%

 

 

Algonquin

Oct-23

-$1.271

-$1.190

-6.83%

-$0.08

-$1.03

23.95%

-$1.03

23.76%

 

 

Aeco

Oct-23

-$0.846

-$0.823

2.70%

-$0.02

-$0.66

27.64%

-$1.84

-54.14%

 

 

Socal

Oct-23

$0.230

$0.384

-40.04%

-$0.15

$1.24

-81.37%

-$0.50

-146.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.710

$0.713

-0.36%

$0.00

$0.69

3.26%

$0.80

-10.84%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.713

$0.708

0.71%

$0.01

$0.69

3.44%

$0.82

-13.12%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.276

$0.280

-1.39%

$0.00

$0.27

3.30%

$0.33

-17.22%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.679

$1.690

-0.65%

-$0.01

$1.56

7.43%

$1.49

12.74%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.856

$0.857

-0.13%

$0.00

$0.84

2.10%

$0.79

8.17%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.685

$0.697

-1.71%

-$0.01

$0.70

-1.66%

$0.81

-15.62%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.858

$1.840

0.95%

$0.02

$1.61

15.47%

$1.48

25.34%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$89.68

$90.03

-0.39%

-$0.35

$79.49

12.82%

$69.34

29.33%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$93.29

$93.27

0.02%

$0.02

$83.95

11.13%

$74.63

25.00%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$15.66

-$20.41

-30.31%

$4.75

-$17.42

-10.08%

-$17.69

-11.50%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$89.78

$90.73

-1.05%

-$0.94

$81.41

10.28%

$71.05

26.37%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$87.09

$88.06

-1.11%

-$0.97

$78.99

10.25%

$67.39

29.22%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$88.59

$89.55

-1.08%

-$0.95

$79.47

11.48%

$67.39

31.46%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$91.29

$91.27

0.02%

$0.02

$81.95

11.40%

$73.36

24.43%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.26

$3.34

-2.31%

-$0.08

$3.28

-0.76%

$2.64

23.50%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.54

$2.56

-0.90%

-$0.02

$2.60

-2.27%

$2.07

22.93%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.44

$2.46

-0.93%

-$0.02

$2.50

-2.36%

$1.97

24.10%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.00

$3.06

-2.03%

-$0.06

$2.90

3.45%

$2.44

22.76%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.26

$2.24

1.03%

$0.02

$2.05

10.20%

$2.01

12.33%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$903.37

$920.18

-1.83%

-$16.82

$854.88

5.67%

$758.86

19.04%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$121.09

$122.20

-0.91%

-$1.12

$114.53

5.73%

$95.20

27.19%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

58.85%

64.14%

-8.25%

-5.29%

67.44%

-12.74%

57.19%

2.90%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

72.51%

82.92%

-12.55%

-10.41%

87.42%

-17.06%

74.56%

-2.75%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

91.59%

98.00%

-6.54%

-6.41%

88.91%

3.01%

75.41%

21.46%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

68.43%

73.59%

-7.01%

-5.16%

71.81%

-4.71%

61.42%

11.41%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

59.89%

59.39%

0.84%

0.50%

57.77%

3.67%

46.86%

27.81%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

171.43%

141.88%

20.83%

29.55%

103.93%

64.95%

46.78%

266.46%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

313.16%

277.14%

13.00%

36.02%

123.33%

153.92%

63.91%

390.00%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/25/23

9/22/23

% Change

Change

8/25/23

% Change

9/26/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 46.00

EUR 44.79

2.70%

EUR 1.21

EUR 46.65

-1.40%

EUR 172.26

-73.30%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 116.57

GBP 113.28

2.91%

GBP 3.29

GBP 117.54

-0.83%

GBP 442.92

-73.68%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 116.95

EUR 113.65

2.90%

EUR 3.30

EUR 121.03

-3.37%

EUR 451.62

-74.10%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 104.74

GBP 102.04

2.64%

GBP 2.70

GBP 116.26

-9.91%

GBP 366.24

-71.40%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 119.09

EUR 116.59

2.14%

EUR 2.50

EUR 144.54

-17.61%

EUR 532.79

-77.65%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 137.21

EUR 133.45

2.81%

EUR 3.75

EUR 141.76

-3.22%

EUR 383.69

-64.24%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.37

$15.24

0.84%

$0.13

$13.01

18.12%

$43.81

-64.92%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Middle Atlantic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E N Central

 

 

 

 

W N Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Atlantic

 

 

 

 

E S Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

W S Central

 

 

 

 

Mountain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pacific

 

 

 

 

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Middle Atlantic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E N Central

 

 

 

 

W N Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Atlantic

 

 

 

 

E S Central

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

W S Central

 

 

 

 

Mountain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pacific

 

 

 

 

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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