Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-28-2023

Sep 28, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:56 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.961

$2.764

7.13%

$0.197

36,002

 

 

WTI

$92.58

$93.68

-1.17%

-$1.10

176,768

 

 

Brent

$95.71

$96.55

-0.87%

-$0.84

2,252

 

 

ULSD

$3.342

$3.315

0.83%

$0.027

1,765

 

 

RBOB

$2.573

$2.599

-0.99%

-$0.026

2,747

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.15

$2.87

9.76%

$0.28

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$24.23

$23.39

3.58%

$0.84

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/22/23

630

-11

-134

09/23/22

 

 

Canada

09/22/23

190

0

-25

09/23/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/19/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,306

97,845

97,894

-49

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,475

84,802

84,874

-72

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,114

404,674

416,711

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

294,409

242,749

222,686

20,063

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

136,942

127,542

128,244

-702

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,498

37,076

37,018

58

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,230

150,608

150,984

-376

 

 

RBOB

386,928

360,143

372,133

-11,990

 

 

HSC Basis

617,352

612,328

609,283

3,045

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/21/18

 

 

 

9/15/23

9/8/23

Net Change

% Change

9/16/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

793

775

18

2.32%

690

14.93%

763

3.93%

 

 

Midwest

931

904

27

2.99%

844

10.31%

898

3.65%

 

 

Mountain

228

225

3

1.33%

168

35.71%

191

19.25%

 

 

Pacific

263

260

3

1.15%

237

10.97%

267

-1.42%

 

 

South

1,053

1,041

12

1.15%

935

12.62%

1,003

5.03%

 

 

    Salt

242

241

1

0.41%

199

21.61%

231

4.67%

 

 

    Non_Salt

811

801

10

1.25%

736

10.19%

771

5.16%

 

 

Total

3,269

3,205

64

2.00%

2,874

13.74%

3,122

4.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$43.63

$42.80

1.95%

$0.83

$40.39

8.03%

$65.93

-33.81%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$66.84

$69.78

-4.20%

-$2.93

$49.49

35.06%

$56.13

19.10%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$43.76

$43.83

-0.17%

-$0.07

$63.36

-30.93%

$72.15

-39.34%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$45.72

$45.38

0.74%

$0.34

$45.50

0.47%

$67.57

-32.34%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$33.52

$33.07

1.36%

$0.45

$33.61

-0.29%

$58.94

-43.14%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$66.68

$67.75

-1.58%

-$1.07

$76.38

-12.69%

$81.31

-17.99%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$32.37

$31.56

2.55%

$0.81

$34.02

-4.86%

$53.45

-39.45%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.899

$2.845

1.90%

$0.05

$3.06

-5.32%

$5.19

-44.19%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.405

-$0.426

-4.99%

$0.02

-$0.39

4.11%

-$0.42

-3.62%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.272

-$0.291

6.90%

$0.02

-$0.16

66.34%

-$0.38

-28.49%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.933

-$0.951

-1.84%

$0.02

-$0.83

11.91%

-$1.73

-45.92%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$1.023

$1.009

1.42%

$0.01

$1.30

-21.21%

$4.19

-75.59%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.906

-$0.902

0.45%

$0.00

-$0.75

21.13%

-$1.59

-43.12%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.125

$2.032

4.60%

$0.09

$2.42

-12.22%

$0.33

553.51%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.744

$0.723

2.95%

$0.02

$0.70

7.03%

$0.80

-7.10%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.743

$0.720

3.14%

$0.02

$0.69

7.63%

$0.80

-7.43%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.272

$0.269

1.23%

$0.00

$0.27

2.77%

$0.33

-16.94%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.699

$1.652

2.87%

$0.05

$1.58

7.55%

$1.49

13.87%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.889

$0.864

2.88%

$0.02

$0.86

3.95%

$0.79

12.01%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.723

$0.690

4.80%

$0.03

$0.71

2.03%

$0.82

-11.89%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.885

$1.803

4.57%

$0.08

$1.57

20.07%

$1.51

25.09%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$93.68

$90.39

3.51%

$3.29

$80.68

16.11%

$72.44

29.32%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$96.55

$93.96

2.68%

$2.59

$84.91

13.71%

$77.76

24.16%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$18.21

-$18.69

-2.64%

$0.48

-$20.39

-10.71%

-$19.16

-4.94%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$93.60

$90.53

3.27%

$3.06

$82.24

13.80%

$74.54

25.56%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$90.59

$87.55

3.35%

$3.04

$79.22

14.36%

$70.45

28.59%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$92.49

$89.22

3.53%

$3.27

$80.48

14.92%

$70.70

30.82%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$94.55

$91.96

2.74%

$2.59

$82.91

14.04%

$78.44

20.53%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.32

$3.23

2.73%

$0.09

$3.17

4.54%

$2.80

18.48%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.60

$2.47

5.34%

$0.13

$2.46

5.90%

$2.14

21.74%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.50

$2.37

5.56%

$0.13

$2.36

6.15%

$2.04

22.81%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.03

$2.97

1.88%

$0.06

$2.94

3.06%

$2.80

8.30%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.22

$2.23

-0.54%

-$0.01

$2.10

5.71%

$2.05

8.50%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$905.68

$895.11

1.18%

$10.57

$848.25

6.77%

$743.35

21.84%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$120.23

$119.36

0.73%

$0.87

$113.52

5.91%

$102.35

17.46%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

58.80%

59.23%

-0.73%

-0.43%

68.10%

-13.66%

55.34%

6.25%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

70.46%

73.98%

-4.76%

-3.52%

85.91%

-17.98%

79.00%

-10.81%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

90.06%

87.23%

3.24%

2.83%

89.44%

0.69%

77.46%

16.27%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

67.48%

68.12%

-0.94%

-0.64%

71.63%

-5.79%

58.45%

15.45%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

60.51%

57.42%

5.38%

3.09%

56.74%

6.64%

46.57%

29.93%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

188.70%

167.73%

12.50%

20.97%

107.83%

75.00%

48.02%

292.96%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

343.57%

322.63%

6.49%

20.94%

125.32%

174.15%

74.65%

360.24%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/27/23

9/26/23

% Change

Change

8/29/23

% Change

9/28/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 43.29

EUR 43.00

0.68%

EUR 0.29

EUR 47.24

-8.37%

EUR 195.71

-77.88%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 110.09

GBP 110.09

0.00%

GBP 0.00

GBP 118.04

-6.74%

GBP 497.75

-77.88%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 112.87

EUR 114.74

-1.63%

-EUR 1.87

EUR 126.85

-11.02%

EUR 525.04

-78.50%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 100.06

GBP 105.11

-4.81%

-GBP 5.05

GBP 118.30

-15.42%

GBP 267.30

-62.57%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 113.88

EUR 112.64

1.10%

EUR 1.24

EUR 146.45

-22.24%

EUR 626.94

-81.83%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 130.95

EUR 129.99

0.74%

EUR 0.96

EUR 143.70

-8.87%

EUR 397.28

-67.04%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.07

$14.48

4.05%

$0.59

$12.79

17.88%

$50.59

-70.21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

547

131

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-9

-17

692

46

-163

7.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-1

-26

638

-57

-187

-8.00%

-23.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

12

-19

988

82

-93

9.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

48

-7

-19

1,825

115

-124

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

42

0

-25

1,524

70

-160

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

100

27

-12

2,621

406

-31

18.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

29

-5

-7

1,148

-9

-148

-1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-24

-3

638

-5

-234

-1.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

28

-3

-15

1,195

78

-147

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

34

-9

-3

74

-56

-5

-43.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-2

13

47

-34

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

25

-9

5

99

-8

39

-7.00%

65.00%

 

 

W N Central

15

-23

-8

82

-51

24

-38.00%

41.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

7

0

4

9

-2

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-5

2

9

-6

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

0

1

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

27

-9

8

63

-75

19

-54.00%

47.00%

 

 

Pacific

18

1

6

36

-51

8

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

17

-4

4

44

-27

13

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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